Discussing the Pitcher Z-Contact% Leaders – 8/12/20

It’s up for debate which one metric best describes a pitcher’s level of dominance. One of those metrics that doesn’t get as much press is Z-Contact%, which is defined as “percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone”. In fewer words, it’s simply in-zone contact rate. Since all else being equal, a pitch thrown inside the strike zone is easier to make contact with then pitches thrown outside the zone, then one measure of absolute dominance is how often a pitcher generates a swing and miss on pitches thrown inside the zone. If a pitcher’s strikes can’t be hit, how are batters going to hit their balls (unintentional comedy scale: 10/10)?! So let’s look at and discuss the early starting pitcher Z-Contact% leaders. All these pitchers have posted marks below 80% versus a league average of 84.6%.

Luis Castillo leads the world here, armed with a high 90s fastball, filthy changeup, and strong slider. His changeup is having a moment this year, even more so than in past seasons. The pitch sports a ridiculous 59.5% Z-Contact%, the best of his career. With a strong ground ball rate as well, I don’t get how this guy isn’t already a top five starter in baseball.

The move to the American League and across the country (to a new country!) hasn’t affected Hyun-Jin Ryu at all. Well, perhaps except for his control, which has oddly been meh so far. He continues to throw his four-seamer less and less, which is a main reason why his Z-Contact% has improved, as the pitch typically competes with his sinker as allowing the highest in-zone contact rate.

Though his fastball velocity is down a bit, Lucas Giolito is proving that last season’s breakout was no fluke. In fact, his Z-Contact% is slightly lower than last year. Now if only he could regain his control.

Amazingly, Yu Darvish’s Z-Contact% has remained remarkably consistent from 2016-2019, narrowly ranging between 81.8% and 82.8%. This is the first year it has sat below 80%, though obviously he could have posted such a mark during previous 17 inning stretches. His poor first half last year now seems a loooooooooong time ago.

Sure, nearly half his innings have come in relief, but it didn’t take long for Jesus Luzardo to prove his top prospect worthiness. His curve ball/changeup combo is absolutely elite, and he complements those pitches with a mid-90s sinker and four-seamer, both of which have maxed out just above 99 MPH. He’s the real deal.

Pablo Lopez has gained a bit of fastball velocity and has mostly stopped throwing his curve ball in favor of his sinker, changeup, and a new cutter. The curve allowed a lot of in-zone contact, while the change is his best pitch. Throwing your best pitch more and a mediocre pitch less sounds like a good tradeoff to me.

Dinelson Lamet is testing the limits of his right arm, as he has thrown more sliders than fastballs this year. That’s insane for a pitcher who recently recovered from Tommy John surgery! But hey, he should remain super effective until his arm and/or elbow explode.

Everyone rushed to pick up Tyler Chatwood after his excellent first two starts and were thanked with eight runs over 2.1 innings in his next start. Ohhh baseball. Chatwood almost stopped throwing his four-seamer in favor of his cutter and slightly upping his curveball usage. His cutter has been elite and probably behind the performance surge. The bigger issue with Chatwood was his awful control and 15 innings isn’t nearly enough to tell us if it has been sharpened, even if his walk rate stands at a much improved 6.2%. A history of poor skills has me skeptical, but I have to admit, I’m intrigued here.

Wow, Ryan Yarbrough is a real surprise to find here. As a guy who averages less than 90 MPH with his fastball, it’s not often you see these types enjoy long-term success. This year, he has thrown his four-seamer and slider less frequently in favor of his changeup (big jump) and cutter. Fewer fastballs for more breakers is usually good move for whiffs, but his slider historically has been his best swing and miss pitch. Shockingly, the pitch has stunk this year, so perhaps Yarbrough recognizes there’s a problem and has reduced his usage. The weird thing here is he sports a very healthy 13.9% SwStk%, easily a career high, yet his strikeout has plummeted to a weak 14.1%. Expect that strikeout rate to rise as long as he continues to make batters swing and miss.