Yesterday I continued my review of 2020 preseason articles by recapping my HR/FB rate surgers list. Today, I’ll review the flip side, the hitters that appeared on my HR/FB rate decliners list. The list was compiled using my xHR/FB rate, and then I identified the fantasy relevant hitters with the most significant overperformance. Let’s see how they ended up doing over the shortened season.
With hot stove transactions summarized and still no updates on when the season will begin, I’m going to continue to review my 2020 preseason articles. Obviously, it’s pretty silly to review my calls based on a 60 game season, but it’s still fun to look back on and hey, maybe we can learn something. Today’s review is my HR/FB rate surgers. The list was compiled using my xHR/FB rate, and then I identified the fantasy relevant hitters with the most significant underperformance. Let’s see how they ended up doing over the shortened season.
Although the year just flipped to 2021, it’s already Pod Projections time! The 2021 forecasts are not available yet, and it’s looking likely that I’ll have more time to finish them once again, just like last year. So consider this an early preview to whet your appetite, for a hopefully longer season than in 2020, even if we don’t return to a 162 game schedule. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers.
Two weeks ago, I reviewed my pre-season article discussing six 2019 breakouts and my verdict for their 2020 performance and earnings. Today, let’s now flip to 2019’s busts. In late March, I discussed six 2019 busts and determined whether they would rebound enough in 2020 to earn within $7 of their 2018 dollar value. If I did think they would earn within $7 of their pre-bust season value, I labeled the player “REBOUND”, and if not, “STILL A BUST”. Though a 60 game season is hardly the sample size needed to evaluate my methodology on calling these 2019 busts, it’s all we have. So let’s see how the players and I did.
Don’t you love it when an MLB team acts like a fantasy team and seemingly acquires or signs everyone good? It’s fun, right? If it wasn’t enough to trade for Blake Snell, sure, why not trade for Yu Darvish as well?! It was first reported on Monday night that the Padres agreed on a trade with the Cubs for Yu Darvish, after a three season run with the Cubs, in which he looked like a young future star improving each year. He was not a young star, of course, but his SIERA improved each season with the team, likely thanks to better health and a recapturing of the elite stuff that made him so exciting in his early years. Now moving to San Diego, let’s consult the park factors to see how the park switch might affect his results.
On Sunday night, the Rays reportedly agreed to trade Blake Snell to the Padres for a collection of youngsters. With a career 3.24 ERA/3.91 SIERA, Snell makes for a strong addition to the Padres starting pitching staff. But aside from the potential change in offensive and defensive support, how might the switch in home park affect Snell’s results? Let’s check the park factors.
In 2019, former Pirates first baseman Josh Bell enjoyed a breakout season. His wOBA spiked from the high .330 range to .378, while his ISO settled just below .300, thanks to a HR/FB rate that surged above 20% for the first time. Unfortunately, he failed to effectively follow up that performance during this year’s shortened season, as his overall power plummeted (even though his HR/FB rate held onto the majority of its 2019 gains), while his strikeout rate skyrocketed well above 20% for the first time. Given his poor defense, all it took was a poor 223 plate appearances at the plate for the Pirates to jettison him, as he now lands in Washington to take over first base duties for the Nationals. Let’s check the park factors to see how the park switch might affect his results.
Back in late March, I discussed six of 2019’s biggest breakouts, as defined by gain in end of season dollar value as calculated here. Obviously, reviewing how these six players ended up performing in 2020 is pretty silly considering we only played 60 games, amounting to just 37% of a regular full season. I’m going to do it anyway, because it’s still fun for me to look back to see how I did on the many calls I made. So let’s find out how the six 2019 breakouts performed in terms of generating fantasy value and whether I was right or wrong in calling them REAL (2020 EOS $$ was within $10 of 2019 EOS $$) or a BUST ((2020 EOS $$ was $10 or more below 2019 EOS $$).
After a disappointing 139 plate appearances over this short season, Hunter Renfroe has signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox to take over as the team’s starting right fielder. Let’s consult the park factors to learn how the soon-to-be 29-year-old’s performance may be affected.
On Saturday, reports indicate that 30-year-old catcher James McCann has agreed to a four-year deal with the Mets. He heads to The Big Apple after two seasons with the White Sox. Let’s check out the park factors to determine how the park switch might affect his offensive performance.
