Let’s finish up my Pod Projection reviews by looking at former top starting pitching prospect, Josiah Gray. Despite a disappointing debut in 2021 that resulted in an ugly 5.68 ERA, he did manage to post a superb 14.1% SwStk%, giving us hope that he would eventually break out thanks to a strikeout rate surge. Let’s find out what happened.
Let’s get back to reviewing the preseason Pod Projection writeups I shared. Today, I’ll review Ketel Marte, who enjoyed a breakout 2019, disappointed during the short 2020 season, and then rebounded nicely in 2021 during an injury plagued year. Refresh your memory by rereading my original breakdown.
Last week, I reviewed six starting pitchers whose ERA Pod Projections were significantly lower than their Steamer projections. Now let’s flip to the list of pitchers I highlighted as having ERA downside.
Let’s continue reviewing the results of my Pod vs Steamer series by switching over to starting pitchers. Today, I’ll review my list of six ERA upside guys, or those whose Pod Projections were significantly better than their Steamer forecasts. Leaguewide starting pitcher ERA was at its lowest since 2014, so a list of pitchers with ERA upside should look better.
Yesterday, I reviewed the list of hitters I had highlighted whose Pod Projections suggested stolen base upside compared with Steamer projections. Now, it’s time to review the list of stolen base downside guys, or those whose Pod Projections called for far fewer steals per 650 PA than Steamer.
Today, I continue on reviewing my Pod vs Steamer series, pitting my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections. Let’s now shift to stolen bases. This season saw the lowest PA/SB (the lower the ratio, the higher the frequency of stolen bases) since 2016, as the rate has jumped up and down beginning in 2018. If the trend continues, steals will be down next year! Of course, that’s not how it works. Anyhow, the increase in steals means my upside guys have a slight advantage, and my downside list might look a little worse than it would had steals been stable year to year. So let’s review the eight hitters who I projected for the biggest positive difference in PA/SB, resulting in a higher stolen base projection over 650 PAs.
Yesterday, I chose to embarrass myself by reviewing my list of home run upside guys, or those my Pod Projections were more bullish on than Steamer. Spoiler alert if you haven’t read the post yet — I lost every battle. Given that the league HR/FB rate was at its lowest since 2015, I should have a better chance of tallying up some wins on the home run downside list. Perhaps I’ll just embarrass myself even further. Let’s find out.
Let’s continue reviewing my 2022 posts and move on to my series pitting my Pod Projections against the Steamer projections. Reluctantly, I’ll start with the hitters I projected for a greater number of home runs than Steamer. Having not looked at the names just yet as I type this, I have a feeling this ain’t going to go well! This season’s league 11.4% HR/FB rate was its lowest since 2015, so a list of guys with upside likely worked out far worse than a list of guys with downside!
Today, I’ll review the starting pitcher Pod Projection I shared at the beginning of March. Logan Webb enjoyed a big breakout in 2021, with strikeouts, good control, and enough ground balls to fill a worm’s worst nightmare. So what did he do for an encore and how did his performance compare to the projections? Let’s find out.
Let’s break from reviewing my prediction lists where half the players discussed got injured and switch to reviewing one of my 2022 Pod Projections…of a player who also got hurt. At the end of Feb, I shared a detailed breakdown of my underlying metric forecasts and overall projection line for former uber prospect Wander Franco. Let’s see how he performed compared to my forecasts, and the computer systems.
