Hitter Flyball Hard% Gainers — Through May 29, 2023

Since 2012, there has been a strong correlation of 0.69 between a hitter’s HR/FB rate and their Hard%. That passes the sniff test because obviously if all else is equal, a harder hit ball is going to travel further. It’s not even higher because it’s missing both launch angle (that, combined with exit velocity, are the components of Statcast’s Barrel%, which also correlates strongly with HR/FB) and horizontal direction (pulled, straightaway, oppo). But it works as a quick shortcut to determine who might be deserving of big power and who isn’t. So let’s check in on the Hard% gainers compared to last season to find out whose power has truly increased.

Pete Alonso is already halfway to his last year’s home run total in only about a third of the plate appearances. Fueled by a league leading jump in Hard%, his HR/FB rate has spiked back above 20%, after sitting just below over the past two seasons. Adding to his home run potential is a career high FB%, as he has sacrificed line drives to hit more fly balls. It’s killed his BABIP, but done wonders for his power, as his ISO sits at a career best, just barely eclipsing his rookie season mark in 2019. He’ll likely lose some fly balls the rest of the way and bring his home run pace down a bit, but he should still produce a similar rest of season pace as his 2019 performance.

With 50/60 Game Power and 60/70 raw power, Bobby Witt Jr. hasn’t quite tapped into his power potential just yet. But remember, he’s still just 22 years old! With a home run last night (or two nights ago as you’re reading this), he has pushed his ISO just above .200. Surprisingly, his HR/FB rate is barely into double digits, even though his Hard% has spiked and his Barrel% surged into double digits as well. He has continued hitting a ton of fly balls, which like for Alonso, has crushed his BABIP, but has delivered the power. Unless and until he gets his walk rate up, he’s going to be a better fantasy player than real life player. But his combination of speed and blossoming power means he’ll be a four category fantasy darling, but not helping the Royals offensively as much given the sub-.300 OBP.

It’s shocking to see Dansby Swanson with such an elite fly ball Hard%, which sits at a career high, but a HR/FB rate that has tumbled into single digits for the first time since 2017, the only time he hasn’t finished in double digits. Heck, even his Barrel% sits at a career high! Statcast agrees that he’s been quite unlucky in the power department, as it calculates a .509 xSLG versus just a .422 actual mark. Since his walk rate has spiked, he’s looking like a mighty fine trade target in OBP leagues. Even in batting average leagues, he should remain a nice all-around contributor over the rest of the season, with a good chance of significantly more home run power.

Finally, Randy Arozarena isn’t dramatically overperforming his xwOBA! He has been a legit star so far, part of which is due to the spike in Hard%. His HR/FB rate has jumped along with it, as his Barrel% has also more than doubled. He’s even taking full advantage of the increased power, as his FB% has shot up to a career high, the first time it’s sat over 40%. Oh, and he’s walking at a double digit clip for the first time. Literally everything has surged in the right direction. Oddly, all that hitting and the .400+ OBP hasn’t resulted in more steals. So far, he has posted his highest PA/SB ratio, despite getting on base far more often. I wouldn’t be looking to sell high if I was fortunate enough to own him.

Jake Cronenworth seems to be doing exactly what he was last year, except that a flyball Hard% spike is being hidden. Actually, this Hard% surge is more like a rebound off last year’s low, though it’s currently sitting even higher than his 2021 mark. He’s certainly got the fly ball rate to take advantage of a spike in HR/FB rate, but he still doesn’t really have the power you want for someone hitting fly balls so often. That high LD% is surprising to see paired with the high FB%, but Statcast does think his BABIP and batting average should be higher as a result. A decent enough middle guy in OBP leagues, but the counting stat upside just isn’t there in batting average leagues.

To draft Wander Franco, you had to just close your eyes, think about his age and former top prospect status, and just cross your fingers. Hopefully, that scored him a spot on your roster. While his power still isn’t anything to write home about, it’s finally moving in the right direction. A low FB% is still holding back his home run potential, but right now with just a league averageish HR/FB rate, there’s little reason to want him to hit more fly balls, as that will just hurt his BABIP. The biggest surprise here is the steals, as he’s already more than doubled last year’s total in fewer PAs. It’s anyone’s guess if that pace will continue, but he should remain a solid all-around fantasy contributor.

MJ Melendez once again finds himself on a list that suggests he should be performing much better! He and Swanson should start the “I keep hitting my fly balls hard, but have nothing to show for them” club to figure out how luck could get back on their side. My only concern here is could Melendez turn around his performance soon enough before the Royals decide to demote him to the minors. It’s poor defensively in right field, so if he’s not hitting, then he’s simply doing more harm than good.