Yesterday, I listed and discussed six pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched that most underperformed their Statcast xERA marks. Let’s now flip over to the overperformers. As you could guess, there are far more overperformers than underperformers. That’s because a pitcher is less likely to be allowed to record 150 innings if he significantly underperforms his xERA. At some point, results matter and teams don’t have the luxury of patience to wait for their results to match their underlying Statcast metrics. So pitchers that overperform are allowed to throw that many innings, even if their underlying metrics suggest impending doom. Until that impending doom actually occurs, they will keep getting the ball.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I discussed the hitters who underperformed their Statcast xwOBA marks most. Given that projection system typically weigh historical results in some fashion to compute an upcoming season forecast, it’s possible that list includes some hitters who may be underprojected. So let’s now turn to the pitching side. We’ll start by reviewing the starting pitchers who recorded at least 150 innings that most underperformed their Statcast xERA mark. Note that based on my calculations, the league xERA was 4.03, versus a 3.97 actual ERA. So on average, pitchers slightly overperformed their xERA marks.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you’ve followed my Tout Wars auctions and LABR in recent years, you would know that I can’t seem to quit Adalberto Mondesi. His tantalizing combination of speed and power make him a potential top 10 fantasy player. Unfortunately, health issues has ensured that has never happened. After being limited to just 54 plate appearances last year due to an ACL tear that required surgery, I thought this was finally the perfect opportunity to move on. Sadly for my auction budget and early round pick, Mondesi was traded to the Red Sox on Monday. Having not yet looked at the park factors, my knee-jerk reaction is that this is great for his fantasy value. Rather than speculate without the data, let’s actually compare the park factors of his old and new homes and find out if this move actually is a positive.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I identified and discussed the qualified hitters who most underperformed their Statcast xwOBA marks. Today, let’s review the overperformers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s start reviewing various 2022 metrics. Today, I’ll start by comparing a hitter’s wOBA to his Statcast xwOBA. If a projection system is directly weighing previous season surface results, rather than incorporating batted ball data, the forecast could be more pessimistic or optimistic than it should. This list of xwOBA underperformers could potentially beat their projections if only their 2022 surface results, and not the underlying data, are considered.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last Friday, the Twins acquired starting pitcher Pablo López from the Marlins. After spending his entire career in Miami, how might his new park affect his performance? Let’s consult the park factors to find out.

Read the rest of this entry »

Nearly a month ago during the latter half of December, the Blue Jays traded prospect Gabriel Moreno and veteran Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for Daulton Varsho. While no longer a catcher, he still played 31 games at the position last year and will therefore maintain his premium eligibility. How will the move to a new home park impact his performance? Let’s consult the park factors.

Read the rest of this entry »

Back on Nov 16, the Mariners acquired Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays to beef up their offense. After spending the majority of his career with the Blue Jays, how might the move to a new home park affect his performance? Let’s consult the park factors and find out.

Read the rest of this entry »

Just over a week ago, Jean Segura signed a two-year, $17 million contract with the Marlins, likely to serve as their regular third baseman. He missed two months last season due to a fractured finger, but heading into his age 33 season, he could still be an all-around fantasy contributor. Let’s see how his new park might affect his performance.

Read the rest of this entry »

It finally happened. After a career composed of 12 seasons spent with the San Francisco Giants, Brandon Belt has finally found a new home. On Monday, it was reported that the Blue Jays have agreed to a one-year, $9.3 million contract with Belt. For years, us fantasy owners have been dying to see what Belt could do if he ever left the home run suppressing Oracle Park. Unfortunately, it took until the season in which he’ll mostly be age 35. Still, after coming off another injury plagued season and the lowest wOBA of his career, will the park switch trigger a rebound? Let’s consult the park factors.

Read the rest of this entry »