New Everyday Players — Aug 7, 2023

With the trade deadline now in the rearview mirror, all the wheelin’ and dealin’ has created a domino effect on the teams involved. It’s not just the players involved in the trades, but also potentially multiple players on these teams that weren’t traded. Some players are now seeing new opportunities with playing time opened up. So let’s revisit the new everyday players series and return to our rundown of hitters who have become regulars recently.

Welcome to a very special Guardians edition! The team has recently traded away starters Amed Rosario and Josh Bell and placed Josh Naylor on the IL. That opened up three starting jobs! This trio has become the beneficiaries.

Kole Calhoun | OF

Remember him?! He was once pretty good and knocked as many as 33 homers back in 2019. Now the 35-year-old has landed with the Guardians in a head-scratching move. Are they trying to win the division? They are only four games behind the division-leading Twins. However, their transactions and trading for a 35-year-old who hasn’t posted a wOBA above .300 since 2020 is bizarre.

Calhoun was bad…real bad, last year. He posted just a .260 wOBA over 424 PAs and has spent all season in the minors this year in both the Yankees and Dodgers organizations. As you might imagine, he was pretty darn good at both stops, posting a .402 wOBA with the Yankees minor league affiliate and a .385 mark with the Dodgers. He posted a significantly higher BABIP than his MLB career average and a higher ISO, as well, but his walk and strikeout rates were in line. His maxEV was also unimpressive and actually lower than he’s posted in the past. So I don’t think his power is actually better than it had been.

It has only been three days since he’s been a Guardian, but he’s started two straight games now, at DH, and then at first base. Given the current state of the roster, he may very well become the team’s first baseman, even though he has played very little there throughout his career. And with projected wOBA marks well below .300, I’m not entirely sure why a team would make him their starting first baseman, especially one that’s seemingly still in the running to win their division.

For AL-Only leaguers, you might as well take a shot if you’re desperate and your alternatives are players who may get one or two starts a week. It’s hard to believe Calhoun is going to make much of a difference or last more than a couple of weeks with a starting job. But for now, might as well add him and cross your fingers.

Oscar Gonzalez | OF

Gonzalez failed to make the team’s top prospect list when he was eligible, but he’s an interesting hitter. He combines a better than average strikeout rate with above average power potential, which is something I love to see. It gives him the chance to contribute in both batting average and home runs. Even better, he has batted cleanup in three of the last four games, so a prime lineup spot will really help his value. Obviously, he’ll have to hit to maintain that spot.

Naturally, there are quite a few red flags, which may have contributed to him not being highly regarded. For one, he swings and misses an awful lot for someone with a better than average strikeout rate. There’s a pretty clear explanation for his ability to maintain a decent strikeout rate despite all the swings and misses — he swings at everything! Last year, among 246 hitters with at least 350 PAs, he posted the second highest Swing%. The man just two ranks behind him is Avisaíl García, whose profile looks eerily similar to Gonzalez’s. Gonzalez also posted the third highest O-Swing% among that group. So he’s not striking out more often because he’s swinging so often and eventually puts the ball in play before he gets to three strikes.

All that swinging has killed his walk rate, which means he’s actually worth significantly less in OBP formats. While we sometimes think walk rate doesn’t really matter in batting average leagues, that’s not true at all. It affects the batters run scoring potential, as fewer walks result in fewer times on base, and you can’t score a run if you don’t get on base! Of course, more balls in play might actually boost his RBI total.

Finally, for all his power, he simply doesn’t hit enough fly balls to take advantage. He has hovered around the 30% FB% mark for much of his professional career. That’s great for his BABIP, not so much his home run output.

The Guardians should really just let him play and start the rest of the way and not move him in and out of the lineup or demote him if he hits a slump, but that depends on whether they are going for a division win or not, which isn’t clear at all. I like the upside here, but it’s a risky skill set.

Brayan Rocchio | SS

Rosario’s departure has opened up an opportunity at shortstop and the Guardians have seemingly given that opportunity to their third ranked prospect, who was also ranked 45th overall. He has started all four games since his promotion, shifting between shortstop and third base.

Rocchio is one of those prospects that doesn’t seem nearly as good in fantasy leagues and looking at his track record, I’m not entirely sure why he is ranked so highly, especially given the 40/50 Field rating. Usually, it’s defense that pushes a prospect’s ranking ahead of his fantasy potential, but even the defensive skills look like a future hope.

The good news is he has made significantly plate discipline strides at Triple-A last year and even further this year. He has reduced his strikeout rate to the low teens, driven by a single digit SwStk%, while boosting his walk rate into double digits for the first time this season. That results in a really nice walk and strikeout rate combo and suggests he really knows the strike zone. He has also swiped double digit bases or was on pace for it over a full season at most stops.

The bad news is that his power completely disappeared this year. After posted HR/FB rates just into double digits every stop since High-A in 2021 (four different stints), his HR/FB rate plummeted to just 3.3% this year, driving a .126 ISO. Perhaps in his second tour of the level, pitchers have figured out how to neutralize his already middling power to an even more limited level.

Still, even with the down power, the projections do suggest a hitter with around 10+/10+ potential, which is useful in deep mixed and AL-Only leagues. Depending on how much of his walk rate increase he sustains, he could also enjoy a value boost in OBP leagues. Personally, I would have little interest here outside of AL-Only leagues and still wouldn’t expect him to be much of a difference maker in that format.