We’re back with another dive into the deep blue sea where we hunt for hidden treasures. Many owners are likely still hurting for a replacement for Jacoby Ellsbury and I have uncovered an outfielder and a possible outfielder (depending on your league’s eligibility rules) who may be worth a look.
Last year, I explained how you may actually be able to buy low and sell high. As you no doubt have learned when trying to make these types of deals, it is much easier said than done. In the coming weeks, we are going to be inundated with articles naming all the same players with the assumption that just a snap of the finger will allow an owner to swoop in and buy low. Rotoworld has already suggested we sell Omar Infante high. Really? What fantasy owner in his right mind is trading for Omar Infante after a week and a half of surprising power? There are ways to buy low and sell high though. You just need a story. Today I’ll just focus on the buy low side.
As you are likely well aware by now, Jacoby Ellsbury suffered a subluxation (partial dislocation) of his right shoulder when Reid Brignac landed on top of him at second base during yesterday’s game. There has been no timetable set yet for his return, but he will likely be out for at least six weeks. This is obviously a huge blow for his fantasy owners and the Red Sox, especially with Carl Crawford still on the shelf, who could have replaced Ellsbury in the leadoff slot. Instead, Mike Aviles and his .317 career OBP has now moved on up. So what’s an Ellsbury owner to do?
It’s time for our first American League starting pitcher update! Let the small sample size analysis begin. I was bored at work today and decided to compare fastball velocity with last year already. Not surprisingly, there were a ton more pitchers with down velocity than up. I think this simply reminds us that pitchers are still building up arm strength and it should not automatically trigger alarm bells if your ace is not throwing as hard as last year. Of course, it’s something to monitor since it should gradually creep up through the rest of the month.
Welcome back to a new season of deep league waiver wire gold. Come dive into the vast ocean of free agency with me and let’s see if we can spot some hidden treasure. I believe last year I used 10% as the ownership maximum in CBS leagues, but that sometimes hamstrung me into recommending really crappy players. So this year I am giving myself a bit more leeway and expanding that ceiling to 15%. We open our first edition with a pair of starting pitchers.
In the first month of the season, fantasy sites and blogs will be littered with your standard buy low and sell high columns. The authors will highlight hitters suffering/benefiting from a low/high BABIP or pitchers whose xFIP (or other expected ERA metric of choice) is dramatically different from their ERAs. I won’t get into why I think these articles are rather useless, but I do want to discuss how to go about evaluating early season pitcher performances. There is a two-step process I use and since I am feeling generous, I would like to share it with you.
Sometimes us stats guys get accused of relying solely on esoteric metrics and watching nary a baseball game. Obviously, I cannot speak for everyone, but I would bet this is far from the truth. Though I am clearly not a professional scout, there are still easy things I can see on TV from a pitcher that can help us project his performance going forward. One of these is the pitcher’s velocity. We have learned that an increase of about 0.5 miles per hour in a pitcher’s fastball results in a similar gain of 0.5 in strikeout rate. Yesterday, I watched a lot of Jake Arrieta’s start, and as I type this, I am watching Ubaldo Jimenez pitch.
In past years, I have posted 20 bold predictions for the upcoming season. Just because our little RotoGraphs contest among authors only required 10 doesn’t mean I was going to stop there! So here are another 10 bold predictions to ridicule me for, or cause your eyes to open in wonder as to how I could be such a brilliant prognosticator. And before you read on, take another gander at my first set of boldies to refresh your memory.
In the last of my posts trying to translate my look at the predictability of pitchers’ spring peripherals into actionable advice, I examine those pitchers whose walk rates were much higher than their Steamer projections for the regular season. These are the guys there might be some cause for concern, as opposed to the potential BB% improvers, whose spring hint at a potential step forward with their control.
On Monday, I published the findings of a study that determined spring K% and BB% were actually meaningful for pitchers. On Wednesday, I looked at pitchers whose spring K% were well above what the Steamer projections were expected, while I looked at the other side on Thursday, those pitchers whose spring K% is well below Steamer’s projected season mark. Today I am looking at BB% and will start with the pitchers who have displayed much better control than anticipated.
