In the past, it used to be difficult to determine how legitimate a batter’s HR/FB rate spike was. We could consider factors like the hitter’s age, his career history including minor leagues and any changes in environment such as home park. Unfortunately, it felt more like a guessing game with the conclusion usually being that the hitter was going to regress the following year back to his career levels. But that doesn’t always happen of course and Jose Bautista wants to make sure you know this. Jeff Zimmerman’s average fly ball and home run distance leaderboard makes it easy for us to find exactly the stat we need when on the hunt to validate a power surge. Did the hitter’s distance rise in conjunction with his HR/FB rate like we would expect to see or not?

Read the rest of this entry »

As you are no doubt keenly aware, Eno has been furiously posting the RotoGraphs rankers’ position rankings over the past week. This is always an interesting and sometimes surprising exercise as I find players I didn’t think I liked ranked higher than the others, whereas guys I thoughts I liked are ranked lower. Trying to figure out why such was the case is the fun part. But rather than explain why each player I ranked differently was ranked at such spot (don’t worry, Pod’s Picks will soon be upon us!), I thought it would be helpful to explain the various general reasons a player is ranked dramatically differently than others rank that same player. Or, in simpler terms, what leads to a difference in ranking?

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projection train has left the station and is gaining momentum, as today brings another forecast for your reading pleasure. The young Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha dazzled over nine starts and 64.2 innings in his rookie debut and then impressed on the biggest stage in the playoffs, posting a 2.64 ERA in five starts. Not surprisingly, he is quite the target of many a fantasy player, as he’s currently the 17th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC leagues, going 92nd overall. Could he possibly deliver that kind of value to his owners?

Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s Pod Projection is the Orioles young third sacker, Manny Machado. In his first full season, the sophomore accumulated a mightily impressive 6.2 WAR. Unfortunately, his season ended with a serious knee injury that required surgery. As a result, he may not be ready for opening day and the uncertainty is reducing his draft cost.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Nationals starting rotation was already pretty good last year and they may be even better this season. The top four features one of the best young (and overall) pitchers in the game and a trio of strong veterans. It’s that last slot that will provide all the drama during spring training. And given the contenders, it’s one worth watching, even for shallow mixed leaguers.

Read the rest of this entry »

After a far too long three week break from publishing my first Pod Projection, it’s time to get back on the saddle. Today I’ll take you through my projection for the young Rockies third baseman, Nolan Arenado. He’s a man who is sure to be considered a sleeper by many, which of course immediately jacks up his price and no longer qualifies him as a sleeper.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Phillies appear pretty set in the outfield, with no exciting position battles looking to take place, even on their bench. That makes it much easier for forecasters like me to project playing time! The outfield enjoys an interesting mix of power, speed, upside and downside potential.

Read the rest of this entry »

We are now heading into the third year of the LABR mixed league. In its inaugural 2012 season, I finished in the middle of the pack. Last year, I finished second. If you’re a fan of following trends, then clearly I’m going to finish somewhere in the negative mid-single digits this year. I think that’s good. On Tues night, I endured an exhausting nearly four hour online snake draft…in early February. Yup, LABR likes to draft early so the results could be published in the fantasy issue of USA Today Sports Weekly. Of course, that makes it extremely difficult to draft a real team with so many position battles yet to be fought.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, I was optimistic about Indians pitchers given that the team had a very speedy outfield to gobble up fly balls. But alas, the pitching staff allowed a .302 BABIP, eighth highest in baseball and the defense compiled a weak -4.5 UZR/150, ranking 26th overall. Although the defense will mostly be the same, so that won’t be one of the reasons to like the pitching staff, it’s an exciting group despite the potential lack of help from the fielding unit.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been an interesting ride for the Twins veteran southpaw Glen Perkins. After about a season and a half’s worth of starts back in 2008 and 2009, the organization apparently decided that they had seen enough. Can you blame them? Sure, he suffered from elbow and shoulder issues that could have hampered his performance, but he also endured two straight years of sub-4.5 K/9 marks! That’s not going to get it done. He then spent the majority of the 2010 season pitching for the Triple-A club.

Read the rest of this entry »