My Tout Wars AL-Only Team & Experience
As a reward for winning last year’s Tout Wars mixed online draft league, I was given the opportunity to join one of the three live auction leagues. Given that I hate snake drafts and auction day is one of the most enjoyable of the year, I couldn’t say yes fast enough. My next decision was to choose which league I preferred to join between the two mono leagues and the 15-team mixed. This was also pretty much a no-brainer. The AL-Only league is the famous and storied one featured in one of my favorite books, Fantasyland. It is home to many of the titans of the industry such as Ron Shandler, Larry Schechter, Jeff Erickson, Andy Behrens, Lawr Michaels, and of course, the man who writes for every website, including this one, Jason Collette. I soon learned that I would indeed be joining this league and yesterday was our auction high up in the McGraw Hill building in New York City.
Although I had met and mingled with all the guys in the league many times in the past, it was still extremely cool to actually be in a league competing against them. One of my favorite bittersweet moments was getting outbid by Shandler. It was toward the end of the auction and Drew Hutchison was nominated. At this point, I was really thinking I could snag him for a buck or two, but my $2 bid was topped by Shandler’s $3, and given my money situation, I simply couldn’t go the extra buck.
This year, all the Tout Wars auction leagues adopted OBP after experimenting with the switch in the mixed draft league I was part of last season. This is important, because the values of hitters change, some of them drastically so. It replaces batting average, making guys like Adam Dunn an attractive commodity once again. Another interesting wrinkle in the two mono leagues is the use of a swingman position. Rather than the standard five outfielder setup, we only have four outfield slots, plus a swingman. The swingman spot could be occupied by either a pitcher or a hitter. So there could be teams employing 10 pitchers in a given week and just 13 hitters.
On Saturday night during the annual Tout Wars party, I was asked what my strategy was. Huh, strategy? I never have a strategy. Should I have one? This was sure to be the most competitive league I have ever participated in, so was it stupid to play it how I always do? I went in with my projections and dollar values, had a list of guys to nominate early and that was it. I simply planned to go where the value was and bid on anyone below my number.
Now finally, it’s on to my team. Here are the full auction results.
C – Jason Castro 15
I was fairly sure I would get Castro. I drafted him in LABR and figured I was higher on him than the majority. He sports an above average walk rate and gets a boost from the switch to OBP. He is also one of those rare every day catchers and will be hitting third for the ‘Stros. I thought I would get one of Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana, thinking I might get them at a nice discount if their OBP boost isn’t fully factored in. Although they did go for below my value, it was higher than I expected and I decided to pass.
C – John Jaso 12
OBP! You’d never see Jaso go for over $10 in a non-OBP league of course. He finished second in baseball among catchers in OBP last year and is slated to be the Athletics regular DH.
1B – Daniel Nava 13
Ughh. In my experience, first basemen seem to universally go for higher than my values. Does everyone overvalue them or are my values wrong? As many of the first baseman were going over my values, I kept going down the list thinking I’ll get that guy, then that guy. Nope, everyone ended up being too expensive and I needed to stay disciplined. Nava gets a huge boost from OBP, but doesn’t do a whole lot else. He’ll start on the good side of a platoon again so at least he’ll be respectable in the counting stats. I paid more than I expected to, but he was still a buck or two below my value, so I was satisfied.
3B – Matt Davidson 1
Yeahhhhh. So in addition to the first basemen generally all going at or above my values, so did the third basemen. Davidson was just demoted, but with the White Sox trotting out an uninspiring group to handle the hot corner, it shouldn’t be long before he’s back. He’s got good power and The Cell is a great park to possess that skill. Oh, and since it’s AL-Only, having a guy not giving you full-time at-bats from day one isn’t such a terrible thing. Plus, it was only a buck and…see my bench.
CI – Logan Morrison 6
He was part of a group of first basemen of which I didn’t totally care who I got. I needed someone and needed to spend my money. It ended up being Morrison. With the logjam in the Mariners outfield, the hope is that they play their offseason acquisition the majority of the time. Hopefully he can stay healthy.
2B – Ian Kinsler 22
My knee-jerk reaction after Kinsler’s move to Detroit was that his fantasy value takes a hit. But, Kinsler gets a boost from the switch to OBP. Plus, the Tigers have been running wild during the spring and there might be something to spring stolen base attempts being predictive for the season. With a new manager at the helm, it’s possible their philosophy has changed and Kinsler should benefit.
SS – Yunel Escobar 11
No, I’m not really a fan of Escobar. But given my pre-draft prep, it seemed that he would be undervalued, so I had it set in my mind that I would end up with him. I still got him at a slight discount, but it was more than I expected to pay. At least he plays every day and is a relatively safe bet to deliver as projected.
MI – Brad Miller 17
I love Brad Miller and drafted him in LABR as well. He routinely posted excellent walk rates in the minors and therefore has some serious OBP upside to go along with his combination of power and speed. Even though my entire middle infield was full at the time (see below), I couldn’t allow Miller to go for $6 below my value. So to ensure that didn’t happen, I bid $17 and then crickets. Heading into the pre-season, I had assumed he would be leading off. Then it seemed like he was dropped to the bottom of the order. Lately, perhaps as a result of his strong spring, he has been hitting second, which is infinitely better for his fantasy value.
OF – Shin-Soo Choo 35
Yes, 35 smackaroos. Possibly my most controversial winning bid, it might surprise you to hear that I actually had him valued at a whopping $39. He’s projected to finish third in the league in OBP by Steamer and fourth by ZiPS, which pushes his value into the stratosphere. And besides the OBP value he provides, he’s a 20/20 threat with 100 runs scored potential.
OF – Brett Gardner 22
There’s that OBP boost yet again. Gardner’s skill trends are a bit scary, but he’s still only 30, so it’s not obvious that he couldn’t rebound a bit. As my primary speed source, a stolen base bounce-back would be wonderful.
OF – Ben Zobrist 21
So, when I actually won Zobrist, he was sitting in my MI slot. But then Miller came along and I couldn’t pass up on him at that price. Luckily, Zobrist has insane position flexibility, qualifying at 2B, SS and OF. That’s super valuable. Well, not necessarily in dollar value terms, but it really does help, in an unquantifiable way. Zobrist was a disappointment last year, but I’m projecting some sort of a rebound. Plus, he always posts an excellent OBP.
OF – Kole Calhoun 16
I had to get the favorite FanGraphs sleeper. I’m a big fan of Calhoun with his combination of power and speed. Plus, he’ll be hitting atop a strong Angels lineup against right-handers, increasing his at-bat total and counting stats.
UT – Oswaldo Arcia 11
Given my insane focus on OBP, I knew I needed a lower OBP guy that provided some pop. Who better to go after than the one who I not only boldly predicted would hit 30 bombs this year, but also lead the league in home runs? I don’t like that Arcia has been hitting seventh during the spring, but a hot couple of weeks could be all that’s needed to move him up in the order, to perhaps as high as fifth.
SW – Abraham Almonte 3
I knew going in that I would be using the swingman slot for a hitter. If I ever wanted to take advantage of a good matchup or two-start week, then maybe I’d start a 10th pitcher. But, with four counting stats that an extra hitter provides versus just two for a pitcher, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to ever start a 10th pitcher, let alone draft one.
Since the beginning of spring, my Almonte plate appearance projection has gradually been increased. Now with news that Corey Hart is going to DH every day early on, the thought is that Almonte will become the every day center fielder. He has also been hitting lead off. Plus, he has some pop, good speed and is willing to take a walk. All this for $3?! He was my favorite purchase, which was made at the end of the auction, as I kept a spot open for him being fairly certain I would get him.
P – Jake Peavy 10
It took me a while to win the bid on a pitcher. And this is the first guy I ended up with. Hmmm. His skills remain good, so it’s just a matter of staying healthy. At least he pitches for a top offense so I don’t have to curse at them for not providing any run support.
P – Koji Uehara 21
I had him valued as the best closer by a couple of bucks. Unlike in mixed leagues, I knew I needed to get a solid closer since it’s going to be much tougher to land one during the season. Plus, with the need to draft crappy fifth starters to fill out our staffs, Uehara’s fantastic ERA and WHIP will be much needed.
P – Tyler Skaggs 4
I wasn’t sure if he was going to be that sleeper who wasn’t, but I got him at a fairly good price in my eyes. I love his velocity spike and he’s in a good ballpark to hold in his fly balls. He’s a nice breakout candidate.
P – CC Sabathia 13
Oyyyy. I passed on so many pitchers going at or above my value that I was left staring at Sabathia, needing to spend some money on pitching. This season I’m going to live and die by (less) big CC, as I own him in LABR too. Of course I’m nervous about the apparent further decline in his velocity, but it’s not automatically a death sentence. Just ask Felix Hernandez how that’s gone for him. To be honest, I’m shocked I had to spend this much to get him.
P – Jesse Crain 1
I could immediately place him on our unlimited DL and replace him with a solid middle reliever. With no standout candidate in the Astros bullpen, most assume Crain will close once he’s healthy. Could be a steal for a buck and frankly I’m surprise no one bid two.
P – Brad Peacock 2
Jason Collette was ready to strangle me after I topped his opening bid on Peacock. Knowing Collette’s love for Peacock, I strongly considered nominating him in the first round of the auction. But, he hasn’t even earned a rotation spot yet and I wasn’t even sure I wanted him for a buck. But I got him at the end of the auction and he offered more upside than the majority of the dreck still out there. So it had to be done. Sorry Jason.
P – Carlos Carrasco 1
Of course. Luckily, when I outed my love for him in my bold predictions, it didn’t affect my ability to get him for a buck. He, too, hasn’t sealed up a rotation spot yet, but given his upside, it would be silly for the Indians to banish him to long relief. Ground balls, a fantastic changeup and 95+ mph velocity. What’s not to love?
P Scott Feldman 2
Ummm, I actually outbid someone to secure Feldman’s services. Is it bad that I own two Astros starting pitchers AND a reliever? This is what happens in mono leagues. You still need innings as wins and strikeouts are categories. With all my question marks above, Feldman was the type I needed. Hopefully he doesn’t torpedo my ratios.
P Robbie Ross 1
One of a hundred candidates for the Rangers’ fifth spot in the rotation. He possesses a pretty solid skill set and could post respectable ratios.
Bench – Andrew Romine, Alex Meyer, Josh Tomlin, Brandon Maurer
Romine qualifies at third and at least at this moment, is expected to take over every day shortstop duties for the Tigers with Jose Iglesias out for the season. My plan is to start him at third base until Davidson is called up from the minors. Romine doesn’t offer much except some speed and playing time, but my fingers are crossed that the Tigers don’t bring in another shortstop, like Stephen Drew. Then it will be back to the drawing board to find a third baseman.
The Twins rotation isn’t very good, so if Meyer impresses early in the minors, he could be called up over the summer and give my pitching staff a nice boost. Carrasco is battling Tomlin, so figured I’d guarantee myself the Indians fifth starter. I actually kind of like Tomlin as his velocity is up since returning from Tommy John surgery and he has always possessed excellent control. It’s only spring stats, but Tomlin has been striking out batters at a significantly higher clip than he has during his short time in the Majors. Maurer was just one of those “well, at least he has some upside” type picks, so will hope for the best.
I ended up spending $205, or nearly 79%, of my budget on hitting. That was not the plan! It just so happened that all the values were on the hitting side and I simply couldn’t pass up a bargain. I like it this way anyway as I’m used to working to improve my pitching during the season. Having a full-time starting hitter at every position in a mono league is huge, so my offense should be quite strong. Hopefully my pitching is decent enough to allow me to make a run at knocking Schechter off the throne.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Ouch.
Mike, it seems to me that in looking to exploit a potential market inefficiency with the switch from BAVG to OBP, you ended up focusing far too much on that category at the cost of all others. I’d be interested in reading how you calculate your auction values since they look way off to me, and I think you may have some mistakes in how you do it. For instance, I can’t imagine why you had Daniel Nava listed at $14.
I wasn’t focusing on OBP, I was focusing on value. Remember, I had to get bid up on Nava so others valued him near me as well. I’d much rather build a lead in a ratio category then draft too many steals.
That’s the problem, though, in that I’m pretty sure you incorrectly calculated the value. That’s also why you actually should prefer to accumulate steals than ratio categories, because perception of value in ration categories varies so much from person to person, making them more difficult to trade.
With integer categories we know there is going to be X amount from the player pool according to our projections. So if there are 1,000 steals projected above replacement and we allocate $374.4 for that pool (12 teams * $260 * .6 hitting split / 5 categories), then each steal above replacement is clearly worth $0.37 in the abstract. There will be some discrepancies in calculating the replacement point, and actual value will depend on the rest of the roster since a team loaded in steals doesn’t need more, but the abstract value is easy to calculate and should be consistent from person to person.
Ratio categories don’t have that advantage because there isn’t one clear way to calculate their value. Different guys do it different ways, with my preference being to work backwards from how Player X’s contribution in that category would affect a pretty standard team. So I’ll take either the mean or median at-bats for the teams in that league the previous season, then adjust by 13/14 to simulate an open roster spot. From there I calculate how much Player X’s projected OBP would affect the OBP of the mean or median roster, then do the same calculations for everyone in the player pool and figure out how much of the $374.4 goes to each increment of positive or negative OBP adjustment and attribute the value over replacement accordingly.
From sixteen years of doing this, I know just how easy it is to swing off on ratio categories and value them too much or too little. Even in our magazine we value batting average a little more highly than I would like. I personally prefer to err on the side of a little undervaluing ratio categories if anything, because you are going to be more confident about the absolute value of integer categories. Whereas if you overvalue your ratio categories, you usually end up with a roster heavily invested in them at the cost of everything else, which makes winning the league extremely difficult.
The best valuation system then includes the variables for the remaining player pool and your own roster construction so that you don’t keep chasing ERA when you already have enough because the rest of the league didn’t perceive its value as highly as you did. Plugging everything into the laptop with all its dynamic recalculations sucked all the fun out of auctions for me, though, so it’s something I try to do just in my mind as I realize what categories are my strengths and weaknesses based on my roster so far.
Wow, well there’s the excellent, intelligent response I like to see! I use Todd Zola’s replacement level valuation system, so I can blame him if it screwed up my values! I was surprised by some of the values, but that’s also because it’s a non-traditional format. So just because it doesn’t conform to our preconceived ideas of value doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
You do make some very good points. I obviously didn’t go into the auction with the plan to dominate OBP and just be decent in the counting stats. It just so happened that way, whether my values were wrong or OBP was undervalued being that it was the first year the league is using it. But I had success with the same lineup construct in Tout mixed last year and know how to manage the lineup. So I’m fairly confident I could do it again.
Weird. I got my start writing for Todd and Jason Grey, but I can’t remember how he calculated values or how it may have changed.
That is funny. Rosters are on onRoto now and the Davenport projected standings puts me in 3rd! Would you look at that. Only 4.5 points back of first. Of course, Schechter is projected for first. Surprise, surprise!
The Baseball HQ projections are less kind, but it’s mostly because of wins and strikeouts. I imagine they are projecting significantly fewer innings than I am and Davenport for my pitchers.
I hope I’m wrong but Abraham Almonte is terrible at getting on base and shouldn’t even be starting. I expect Brad Miller to be leading off by June.
I understand you didn’t have many choices left for SP but you can’t compare CC to Felix. He has one of the best change ups in baseball that is why he has been able to remain so durable and so dominate even as his velocity has gone down. Good luck with your team!
Almonte’s walk rates have typically been 10% or better in the minors which is good. Of course CC and Felix are different pitchers. My point was that a decline in velocity isn’t an automatic death sentence. Felix proves that because his other pitches are good.
He didn’t compare CC to Felix. It’s kind of amazing that that even needs to be pointed out. He was making a general point that velocity decline isn’t a death sentence.
One question, what happens if a player is traded to a NL team in the middle of the season? You loose him?
Keep him
There’s some promise here, but I can see a scenario where this gets real ugly real quick lol… good luck this year good sir.
Yikes I’ve got to think this squad of yours is last or pretty close to it in home runs and rbis, era and k’s don’t look to good either.
Yeah, this team looks pretty ugly. It seems like the change to OBP dominated the thought process and all the money was spent primarily on one category. I hope Tout Wars doesn’t have a Premiership like relegation system or Pods might be back to snake drafting next year.
Nope. You’d be surprised in mono leagues. Many teams are starting bench players or even minor leaguers. Simply due to getting more at bats, I’ll be in good shape in both categories. Based on my projections, I would have finished in the top 5 in each from the 2011 standings. Again, this is a mono league where teams will be starting Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen, and other dreck for 200 innings. My ERA is fine.
I think most of us are familiar with A.L. or N.L. Only leagues, and your roster still looks extremely questionable. It could be that your projections are that far off from what the rest of us are expecting, though.
As an onlooker with no supernatural knowledge of how the unpredictable major-league baseball season will unfold, I can say with roughly 93 percent confidence that your team will not finish in first place. Better luck next year.
After scanning all the rosters it looks like you have a 10th place team. You will win the obp category but the cost is you will be destroyed in all the others except saves.
I give the draft a D which is normal for guys doing bigger auctions for the first time. I would hate to see how bad you would do in the nfbc auctions!
Trading is allowed. Did you project every roster or just look at names? I’m not sure what doing “bigger” auctions means. I’ve been auctioning for over 10 years including years with industry folk.
You can throw projection systems out the window. I was projected to finish last my first year in Tout Wars, finished tied for 3rd. My only year in LABR NL I was projected to finish first running away and finished 7th.
You can only win OBP once. Seems like most of your hitters you paid heavily for high-OBP which is good, but I feel like you sacrificed a LOT elsewhere, especially in HR and RBI. You’re going to suffer in those, but win OBP. And your pitching staff suffered quite dearly due to focusing on OBP too much. Hopefully your entire team will notch high OBPs and you can deal them for power and pitching, because otherwise, that team’s outlook isn’t pretty.
No, no I’m not. Simply due to more at bats, I’ll be fine in hrs and rbis. Plus, trading is allowed. It’s exactly how I won my Tout league last year. Same exact strategy.
I think you’re too confident in the number of ABs that roster is going to accumulate. Jaso, Morrison, definitely Matt Davidson, Nava, Calhoun, definitely Almonte, Arcia, and maybe even Miller depending on what happens with Franklin could end up with less ABs than you’re projecting. You were playing in a mixed league last year where playing time is much less fluid. Here you’re counting on those names I mentioned to be in the lineup throughout the season, which may or may not hold true without even considering injuries.
It’s possible of course, but my playing time projections have been adjusted on a nearly daily basis since I’m selling them from my ProjectingX.com site. I make sure they add up to about the right number. I only projected Davidson for 300 plate appearances and if LoMo’s is too high, that will only help Almonte as it means Saunders is taking LoMo’s PT and Almonte is in CF every day.
You’re dead to me for stealing Peacock and Carrasco. DEAD!
if you had to do it again, where would you have spent the money you left on the board? Would you have spent more on one of the big names even if it meant paying more than your valuation, or would you have spent it to upgrade some of your cheaper buys into paying your projected value?
In my experience, the most difficult part of an auction is adjusting my values to the market rate once the auction gets going. It looks like you didn’t really try to do that here, instead sticking to your guns and letting your perceived values be the guide. Does that ever result in spending all of your dollars, or do you frequently end up as the one leaving money unspent?
What gave you the impression that I left money on the table? I spent it all. I’m not going to overpay unless I screwed up.
Sorry, I completely misread the last paragraph. Just missed the “on hitting” portion. Doy.
I’m higher on your roster than others here, especially compared to some of the other teams. Your pitching staff is high risk/high reward but you admit as much. Your biggest risk is in the 1b/3b/ci slots where you have the least guarantee of everyday playing time in positions where others will be getting a ton of production. I think you’ve got enough strength in your OF/MI to make up for this, but those corner spots are extremely dubious. I think the big head scratcher is that you paid $13 for Nava when Loney went for $9. I would have figured Loney would be right in line with your goals here, but I don’t know what you had him valued at.
Loney isn’t unlike Nava in that he’s more of an OBP, low power guy. Similar to Nava, so not someone that fits on my roster. I had Loney valued at $8.43, so he wasn’t at a discount and didn’t provide me what I needed. Nava didn’t give me what I needed either, but at least he came at a discount.
If all players are healthy all season, there’s NO chance Arcia hits more home runs than both Chris Davis and Edwin Encarnacion. NONE. To completely dismiss park factors when making a prediction like that, not to mention the raw power and recent track record Davis and EE possess, it is one of the worst bold predictions I’ve seen in a long. But best of luck with it. Crazy respect for you if it comes true.
I think you misunderstand what the bold predictions are. The 30 hrs are supposed to be about a 20% chance. THe league leaders post is much lower than that.
Wow, that’s an “interesting” roster.
Although overemphasis on OBP is apparent, I think the bigger problem was that you appear to have been married to your spreadsheet and analysis.
I go into auction drafts with spreadsheets, too, but if I’m playing with “experts” (I wish!) and I continually see players and positions going off the board at values much higher than my projections, I’m going to question my underlying assumptions and adapt.
Didn’t see that here.
Wish you luck with your team.
Every stat line is worth something. If you only get $260 worth of value for your $260, you had a mediocre auction. The goal is to maximize value and the way to do that is get players at a discount by having values and sticking to them. If most first basemen go above my value, I’ll wait for those that don’t. And I did, getting both Nava and LoMo below my values. Every player can’t go over my value because they still need to add up to $3120.
But you don’t get extra credit for winning OBP by .020, nor can you assume that you’ll get equal value from trading OBP for help in other categories during the season. That’s what makes rotisserie so much more challenging than points leagues.
Ha, of course not. But unlike casual leagues, I’m playing with guys who know they will need to improve their OBP and which players will help them do it. In Tout mixed last year, I traded Choo for Stanton. That’s precisely the type of trade I could make again this year to balance out my category strengths and improve my remaining weaknesses in offense.
good write up, most folks don’t know how difficult it can be to play in mono leagues, it gets thin quick. These are leagues where sometimes it pays to do the reverse two or 3 for 1, especially if injuries hit.
With that said, I would have price enforced on S. Perez and Y. Gomes, chris davis seems like a steal at 30, chris carter at 15 (where is your love for OBP here??) is a steal, Gillaspie would have been worth a $2bid, i’d rather have seager over zobrist, Kendrick at 12 seems very low, poor guy who spent 17 on profar, Dozier at $13 seems like a value (even in OBP league), who wasted 4 on buxton, Eaton and Machado seem cheap, Cain and De Aza came in at reasonable values, and on the pitching side I would have pushed cobb to at least 19 and/or Dickey to 16 over CC. Quinatana for 6 is a steal, why no Archer love at 12 (or 13)? Jimenez at 6?? Scheppers at 3 would have pushed to 4, shields at 20 is a horse, and where is Sergio Santos?? Gibson in reserve was a shrewd pick. I like Nava, Escobar, Miller, Calhoun, Arcia and Peavy at those prices. Dont like Kinsler, Jaso, Davidson or Almonte. Rest I am agnostic, as in mono leagues you always end up with some guys just to fill holes.
Salvador Perez takes a huge hit in the switch to OBP. He was overvalued. Gomes was right at my value. Chris Davis also loses value in OBP and he went above my value, certainly not a steal. Yeah, really wanted Carter as he was exactly who I needed. Also went above my value, so no sense in overpaying there.
Yes, Quintana was cheap at 6, he lasted until the end and I couldn’t price enforce. I don’t care for Archer, think he’s overvalued and overrated. Jimenez also cheap at 6.
You don’t like Almonte at $3?? I had him worth $11 as not even a full-timer!
I agree with the theme here that you probably over-analyzed/invested in the OBP here. You mention it all over this write-up; I would never think to do that for batting avg.
Wouldn’t go so far as to say you have a 10th place team, but I would take Collette’s team, as of today, all day over yours.
Probably would’e reallocated the money in Kinsler to a 1B or other with more power. You’re light there. Also, Kendrick at 12 looks great.
Just to jump in here, I plugged your team into my own personal projections to see if what everyone was saying (too much OBP value) lined up with my stuff. While I would say that yes relative to the other categories you did buy more stock in OBP but not so exceedingly high that you will run away with the category so I’m really not that concerned with that part.
You do seem to lack in the HR/SB areas, I’ve never done an only league and I’ve seen you defend your projected total which I understand so don’t worry about that anymore. What I would love to hear you comment on is your approach to all five categories throughout the process of the draft. I’m not going to lie, half of these players have ended up on one or more of my teams so that part I love as well as the small amount of how you’ve described your approach to drafting. What I mean is, yes, all five categories count equally, and I agree that almost under no circumstances am I paying over my values for a player At the same time however, at what point do you begin to ask yourself “I’m expecting a $3 value for player X and only a $1 value for player Y, but player Y gives more value to my team because the production will come from categories I’m lower on the scoring curve.” Or do you not approach a draft in that manner and simply look for the most value no matter the category assuming trades will be made?
Last thing I swear! What I would like to point out that maybe hasn’t been said yet is that while you may not get as much back in value for OBP vs speed let’s say (it’s debatable but for an assumption during conversation) what most people aren’t giving you credit for is the fact that with an OBP buffer, you may be able to acquire or absorb certain players that other teams won’t be able to who will also be able to be had for less than expected in a trade… And those same teams may be looking for OBP help anyways so you’re most likely to get full value there potentially!
You’ve earned a twitter follow either way as I enjoyed this article and your general approach.
TL/DR: Keep up the good work, like the team, look to balance categories during the draft maybe.
Side Note: In general, what type of system do you use to come to your player values?
Thanks for the well thought out comment. Well said. I generally try to maximize value, but of course I’m cognizant of not leaving the draft/auction with 250 steals and just 50 homers. I’m not going to draft Billy Hamilton, Gardner, Bourn, Revere, Altuve, Andrus, etc. But I’m obviously willing to be slightly heavy in a category (OBP here) if I’m not totally killing my other categories all in the name of maximizing value. I think I accomplished that as based on my projections, I’m totally fine in the non-OBP cats.
I use a valuation system developed by Todd Zola that accounts for replacement level production both at each position and from the entire positively-valued player pool.
The difference between BA and OBP is predictability. As Ray Murphy mentions in his writeup, predicting the top BA guys from year to year is really hard, but the top OBP guys are mostly the same. This is also true for the bad BA guys who walk or get hit by pitches a fair amount. To not take the value propositions, even if they’re at OBP is to leave that value for someone else to buy it cheaper.
That said, JD is right that the reason people weren’t paying for OBP was because they either didn’t care or didn’t know how to do it. If they continue not to care, making good trades could be hard. So Mike, Ray and I will be the trailblazers finding out how that works. I’m looking forward to it.
My bet is that once we start getting standings those predictable walks are going to have real value.
Chris and I spent a lot of time on that concept when broadcasting the NL auction, especially in regards to Joey Votto, who might have actually gone a buck or two cheap given his utter reliability.
I thought that it was a really challenging auction – I haven’t fully digested everyone’s rosters, but my first impression was that nobody went off the rails that much. Even if it’s true that you had some OBP overkill, I think it’s likely that it’s perhaps the best category to do so, especially when you’re going to have a ton of plate appearances relative to the rest of the league.
Glad to have you in the league.