Author Archive: Mike Podhorzer

For those of you who have read my many snake draft and auction recaps, you may recall that I rely on the same strategy season after season. No matter the format, I load up on hitting and pay significantly less for pitching than my competition. There’s a reason I continue to follow this strategy — it works. For me, at least. I have been quite successful following the plan, and when I don’t finish in the money, it’s typically because my offense was filled with busts, rather than my pitching performing like the weak staff I presumably paid for. Unfortunately, the strategy may finally have to be tweaked, as our competitors have official smartened up.

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If you guessed this post might relate to BABIP, you would be right. Last year, the highest BABIP by a qualified start in either league was .339, followed by four between .320 and .330. This season, the Major League average BABIP for starters sits at .297, while for American Leaguers it stands slightly lower at .295. The five starters below lead the American League with the highest BABIP marks. There doesn’t even need to be any deep analysis done to say with near certainty that better BABIP days ahead. But of course, that would be lazy, so analysis there shall be.

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I haven’t forgotten about you National League only owners! Because I play in the American League Tout Wars, it’s far easier for me to come up with deep league names in that league. But it’s time to give you NLers some love.

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Yesterday, I dissected the batted ball distance leaderboard by looking at five hitters whose distance has validated their HR/FB rate surges. Today, I’ll look at those bringing up the rear, with five hitters whose HR/FB rate declines are supported by a dip in batted ball distance. This doesn’t necessarily mean doom and gloom the rest of the way, but that their current poor performance isn’t just bad fortune.

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It’s time once again to analyze the batted ball distance leaderboard! Woohoo. There are many ways to utilize the distance data, one of which is for validation purposes. This method of analysis is backwards looking. Does the distance back up the HR/FB rate? We can’t necessarily say a hitter is going to maintain such a distance, but we could point to it to determine whether the hitter’s performance has been legitimate or not. Has he been the beneficiary of some good fortune or has he truly been crushing/not crushing the ball?

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A week ago, I discussed six American League starting pitchers with the largest increases in fastball velocity from April to May. Today, I’ll check in on seven AL starters who have suffered through a decline in fastball velocity. But since we’re 2 1/2 weeks into June, I’m now comparing May velocity to June velocity. Since velocity stabilizes rather quickly, then the three starts or so in June should be enough to analyze the data.

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This week’s edition highlights two hitters who have just been freshly recalled from the minors. They could return there by the time you read this sentence or remain on the big league roster for some time! That’s the joy of picking from scraps in deep leagues.

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Yesterday, I discussed four starting pitchers due for an improved walk rate moving forward, according to my expected walk rate equation. Today, I’ll highlight another four pitchers, this time a group who is at risk of suffering from an increased walk rate over the rest of the season. These pitchers all sport xBB% marks well above their actual marks.

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I don’t discuss it as often as my xK% equation, because the R-squared is significantly lower, but my xBB% formula is still useful to calculate and analyze the results. Even for hitters, strikeout rates have always been easier to predict from an equation than walk rates. Odd. Anyway, let’s take a look at the four starting pitchers whose xBB% marks are most below their actual walk rates. This could signify improvement on the way, which would bring both ERA and WHIP down.

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Every spring training, we make a big to do about fastball velocity. We may even remember to monitor it for the first start of the season. Whose velocity is up, hinting at a breakout? Whose velocity is down, suggesting either a hidden injury or a disappointing year is on the way? Then we totally forget about it and rarely discuss it again. Velocity does rise throughout the year, but some pitchers gain more than others, obviously. Sometimes better health or a slight tweak in mechanics mid-season could increase velocity, aside from just the warmer weather that generally lifts all boats. So here are seven pitchers whose fastball velocity has jumped in May, compared to April.

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