This is what a breakout looks like:

The third overall pick in the 2010 Amateur Draft, Manny Machado made his MLB debut at the tender age of 20 and took baby steps to gradually increase his offensive performance heading into 2015. The power remained ho-hum, he was a poor base stealer, and he was a bit too much of a free swinger, routinely posting below average walk rates. Furthermore, he dealt with major knee issues that required surgery in both 2013 and 2014. But then 2015 happened and he loudly announced his good health and validated why he was a former top prospect.

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I wrote a lot about Mike Moustakas heading into the 2015 season. First, I asked whether there was any hope for the man affectionately known as Moose Tacos. Although if you stared closely enough at his statistical trends, you could see a tiny seed blooming painfully slowly, it seemed obvious that there were too many flaws to make him worth a roster spot outside of AL-Only leagues. I then took another, perhaps closer look, three months later and proclaimed that the Moustakas breakout was upon us.

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Every year after the RotoGraphs consensus positional rankings are published, I compare my column of ranks to a recalculated consensus after excluding mine. It’s a fun little activity and it allows me to figure out why I might be more bullish or bearish on a particular player than the rest of the crew. Although I published all infielders in one post in the preseason, I’ll only look at a couple of positions at a time for the recaps. We’ll start with the catchers and first basemen.

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Yesterday, I reviewed my short list of pitchers that my xBB% equation suggested had significant room for improvement. Today I check in on those pitchers I identified as having downside, as this group posted xBB% marks well above their actual walk rates in 2014.

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The preseason reviews continue to trickle in and today I’ll recap my list of xBB% underachievers. Using my xBB% equation, I identified pitchers whose walk rates were well above their xBB%, suggesting likely improvement in 2015. Let’s see how the equation did for the names I discussed.

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Heading into the season, Addison Russell was ranked as the Cubs’ second best prospect and third best prospect in baseball. After finishing last year at the Double-A level, he figured to open the year at Triple-A and remain there for the majority, if not all, of the 2015 season. But that didn’t happen.

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It’s second base week on RotoGraphs and that gives me the opportunity to perform the first review of my 2015 Pod Projection breakdowns. Anthony Rendon enjoyed a breakout year in both real and fantasy baseball in 2014 and given his previous top prospect pedigree, was then highly valued heading into this season. At the time of my Pod Projection, Rendon was being drafted 13th overall in NFBC leagues. Unfortunately, a knee injury that was supposed to only keep him out for a week or two to begin the season dragged on and on. He didn’t make his 2015 debut until early June and then missed another month with a quad strain. Ultimately, he finished ranked 35th in value…among just the second basemen!

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For the first time this year, I decided to compare my Pod Projections to Steamer and discuss the players we disagreed on most. Of the hitters we both projected, it was clear I was much more optimistic than Steamer on the whole. However, for Jose Abreu I was actually significantly more pessimistic.

In the review of this series, I will be including my original Pod Projection, and Steamer counting stat projections extrapolated over the same number of plate appearances that I had projected. However, I included Steamer’s actual PA projection in that column. Also included are the player’s 2015 stats, plus the counting stats extrapolated over the number of PA I projected.

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Miguel Cabrera hasn’t just been one of baseball’s best hitters over the last ten years, he has also remained amazingly consistent. As fantasy owners, we’re used to our top picks disappointing us, but Cabrera has never posted a wOBA below .374 in a full season. And yet, this was a season of firsts for Cabrera, which despite an above his career average .413 wOBA, resulted in a loss for all those who paid top dollar for his services on draft day.

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Yesterday, I recapped my preseason starting pitcher strikeout rate upside target list using my xK% equation. So naturally today I’ll review the other side of that list, those pitchers who posted strikeout rates well below their xK% marks, which suggested potential downside for the 2015 season.

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