It’s back to another Steamer and I, as I compare my Pod Projections to the Steamer forecasts and identify players we disagree on most. Last time, I switched gears, discussing Mike Trout, who surprisingly I was far more bearish on than Steamer.

I am continuing the bearish theme with our next man, the ManBearPuig himself, Yasiel Puig. Puig made a splash in his 2013 debut, posting a .398 wOBA with strong power, some speed, and excellent defense in right field. But since, his offensive production has been in decline and last year he battled injuries en route to just a .328 wOBA. I think we all assume a rebound is in order, but the question is how much?

Read the rest of this entry »

Over the years, I have written a lot about the concept of position scarcity. In fact, a quick Google search yields four such articles just on the front page (I wonder how many, if any, are hiding on page 2 and beyond!):

The Position Scarcity Post To End All Position Scarcity Posts, March 2011 (oops, guess this article didn’t actually end all position scarcity posts!)
What is Position Scarcity, Really?, January 2012
What is Position Scarcity, Continued, January 2012
On Best Player Available vs. Position Scarcity, January 2015

This time I’ll take a different avenue to discuss the concept. My inspiration was an article posted last week by our friend Rudy Gamble over at Razzball.com. It was titled Debunking Position Scarcity In Mixed League Fantasy Baseball, and in it, Rudy shared his reasons why he believed that position scarcity was essentially a myth in mixed leagues.

Rudy and I have discussed position scarcity a lot over the years and the wonderful thing is that although it appears that we disagree, we both use math and data to support our positions. So it’s a constructive back and forth that allows both us and our readers to learn. After all, we still don’t have a 100% perfect valuation system, so we don’t know for sure who’s even right!

Read the rest of this entry »

Today, I continue this year’s Steamer and I series, but switch it up to the other side. That is, the first two players I compared my Pod Projection to Steamer were those I was significantly more bullish on. Now I’ll take a look at a player I am far more bearish on than Steamer.

It should not surprise you that the fantasy relevant player I’m most pessimistic on versus Steamer is actually Xander Bogaerts, who I discussed last week. Obviously, I’m not going to talk about him a second time. So instead, I move down the list and find a big surprise – 2014 MVP Mike Trout. I debated whether it was even worth writing a potentially negative article on him because my opinion isn’t going to matter much. But I’m actually quite curious about what is driving my pessimism versus Steamer since this is a complete surprise to me. So let’s find out, shall we?

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

It was fairly easy to decide who should get the third Pod Projection treatment of the 2016 preseason. The second overall pick in the 2013 June Amateur Draft, Kris Bryant shot through the minor leagues after destroying minor league pitching and finally made his highly anticipated debut in 2015. He didn’t disappoint, as he posted a .371 wOBA and performed exactly as we expected – lots of swings and misses resulting in strikeouts, a strong walk rate, and excellent power.

Naturally, fantasy owners are expecting the sun, the moon, and the stars from him in 2016, as his NFBC ADP currently sits at 11th overall. He has been selected as early as fourth (!!!!!) and as late as 22nd. Are they crazy for their super optimism, or justified to believe an offensive explosion is on its way?

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday marked the triumphant return of the Steamer and I series, as I started things off with a comparison of Michael Conforto’s Pod Projection and Steamer forecast. Today I will continue with a player I am much more optimistic about than Steamer, Yoenis Cespedes.

Cespedes had a dreamy two months with the Mets, driving an overall offensive performance rebound back to the level he enjoyed during his 2012 debut. Though no one expects him to repeat that level of production over a full year, lost in what Cespedes did was that he had already rebounded in his first four months with the Tigers. The Mets performance simply made his rebound more dramatic. So let’s dig into the numbers and find out why I’m so much more bullish than Steamer.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the return of the Steamer and I series. I debuted Steamer and I last year and have decided to bring it back for an encore performance. In the series, I pit my Pod Projection against Steamer, comparing wOBA forecasts for hitters and ERA for pitchers. I’ll choose several fantasy relevant players to discuss on each end of the spectrum – those I am far more optimistic on and those I am more bearish on.

Read the rest of this entry »

Two years ago, I shared with you an updated version of my xK% equation. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, along with his overall rate of strikes thrown. With an adjusted R-squared of 0.913, it explains a very higher percentage of a pitcher’s strikeout rate. Its best use is early in the season when the plate appearance (the K% denominator) sample size is still small, as xK% uses total pitches as the denominator, so we can reach a reasonable sample size to analyze much more quickly.

Read the rest of this entry »

Two years ago, I shared with you an updated version of my xK% equation. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, along with his overall rate of strikes thrown. With an adjusted R-squared of 0.913, it explains a very higher percentage of a pitcher’s strikeout rate. Its best use is early in the season when the plate appearance (the K% denominator) sample size is still small, as xK% uses total pitches as the denominator, so we can reach a reasonable sample size to analyze much more quickly.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Yesterday, I published my first Pod Projection of the year, and the honor was bestowed upon the Dodgers’ hyped young shortstop, Corey Seager. Several commenters asked me to clarify my feelings on Seager’s ADP in relation to Xander Bogaerts, so I figured I might as well expand upon my thoughts on the latter by giving him the full Pod Projection treatment.

Bogaerts, a former top prospect with the Red Sox, completely transformed into a new type of hitter in 2015. It’s odd because this is something you might expect from an established veteran who is compensating for deteriorating skills. Established veteran Bogaerts is not, but the finished product delivered significantly more offensive value than the 2014 version. He struck out far less, though his SwStk% only declined marginally, the respectable minor league power he had displayed in the past declined even further, he became an extreme ground ball hitter, at the expense of fly balls, he went to the opposite field with dramatically greater frequency, and his BABIP skyrocketed. Phew! Is there anything in Bogaerts’ statistical profile that didn’t change drastically?! His line drive and pop-up rates were virtually unchanged, so there’s that!

With all these changes, it makes projecting his 2016 performance that much more difficult. It’s hard enough forecasting a player with just two Major League seasons to his name, so when we cannot even determine a true baseline for his skills, we’re essentially just taking a wild guess. So here goes…

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

The honor for first 2016 Pod Projectionee goes to Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager. He came to the plate just 113 times in his Major League cup of coffee, but man did he impress. He posted a robust .421 wOBA and displayed elite underlying skills across the board. I wrote him up in mid-November, concluding with the following:

With all the other exciting sophomores getting more attention, it’s possible Seager slips under the radar, even with his excellent September performance. Normally, he’s the type of player who would be a near lock to be overvalued. But I’m not so sure about it. In fact, I’m rather curious where fantasy owners will peg his value. I don’t expect a big breakout, but he could very well be a solid across the board contributor.

“…it’s possible Seager slips under the radar”, ha! He’s currently the 55th player off the board and third shortstop selected according to NFBC ADP. Surely fantasy owners haven’t forgotten about him and are putting an awful lot of stock into his prospect pedigree and a tiny sample of MLB performance. Are they justified in their optimism?

Read the rest of this entry »