After missing the entirety of the 2015 season and nearly two-thirds of this season, former top prospect Tyler Skaggs finally made his triumphant return from Tommy John surgery on Tuesday. Though the surface results are meaningless, he did go seven innings, striking out five, while issuing just one walk. The now-25-year-old showed serious strikeout ability in the minors and his ground ball spike in 2014 was intriguing. And although his strikeout rate slipped in 2014, his fastball velocity jumped three miles per hour, which is almost unheard of when it’s not related to a move from the starting rotation to the bullpen. So we had the makings of a true sleeper here. Now that he’s back, is he worth rostering?

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No, your computer screen hasn’t frozen from several weeks ago, nor is FanGraphs on repeat. Instead, I’m double dipping, reiterating two recommendations I have made over the past month.

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Yesterday, I discussed some of the starting pitchers whose xK% significantly exceeded their actual K% marks, suggesting strikeout rate upside over the rest of the season. Today, I’ll check in on the opposite end of the spectrum, looking at those fantasy relevant starting pitchers whose strikeout rates are far exceeding their xK% marks.

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Let’s do one final rest of season xK% update. If you recall, my xK% equation uses Baseball-Reference.com metrics to calculate a pitcher expected strikeout rate. It’s missing a sequencing component, though who knows if that’s even a skill. But even without accounting for such, it has proven to be one of the best expected metrics we have developed, at least by R-squared. So let’s begin with the fantasy relevant starting pitchers whose expected strikeout rates are well above their actual marks, suggesting significant upside over the rest of the season.

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There was a time, many, many years ago, when I would never roster a rookie starting pitcher. This was when I first began playing fantasy baseball in the late 1990s. Whether it’s because rookie starters now seem to enjoy more immediate success than in the past or we just do a better job evaluating pitchers in general that enables us to separate the wheat from the chaff, I no longer avoid rookie starters, and have not for a while. I already discussed selling Michael Fulmer two weeks ago, so that leaves us with just only a couple of rookie American League starters we truly care about, one of which is Blake Snell.

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Let’s go fishing!

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Yesterday, I discussed the five players with the highest ownership spikes over the last week in CBS Sports leagues. Today, I’ll check in on the players fantasy owners are scrambling to kick to the curb and drop them off their rosters. The most dropped list could be a good place to start if you’re looking to buy low. Let’s see if that’s the case this time or if owners are justified dropping each. Since the top of the list is littered with players on the DL or players demoted to the minors, I will only include those healthy and in the Majors.

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It’s been a month since I last checked in on the hottest pickups in CBS leagues. So let’s take another gander. Below are the players whose ownership rates have increased most in the past week on CBS. Are owners justified in rushing to the free agent pool to add these players?

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Since 2013, I have polled you dashingly attractive readers on which group of pitchers you think will post the better aggregate ERA post all-star break. The two groups were determined based on ERA-SIERA disparity, pitting the underperformers versus the overperformers during the pre-all-star break period.

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As our much needed baseball break comes to an end, it’s time once again to explore the free agent pool and search for hidden treasures.

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