Yesterday, I discussed the hitters who have most underachieved their xBABIP marks. Today, I follow up on last month’s xBABIP overperformers with an update on the fantasy relevant hitters whose BABIP marks have most exceeded their xBABIP marks.
I last discussed the xBABIP underperformers about a month ago, so with standings shaking out and only about two months left in the season, it’s time to share one final update. Below are the fantasy relevant hitters whose Alex Chamberlain xBABIP most exceeds their actual BABIP marks. If you’re looking for a trade target, this may be a good list with which to begin your research.
Welcome to the final American League starting pitcher tiers of the season. The trade deadline deals resulted in several pitchers departing to the National League, with precious few arriving. With only about two months left in the season, potential innings limits are going to play a major role in rest of season value.
Today’s edition of the deep league wire features an injury related opportunity and more fallout from the flurry of trade deadline activity.
Last week, Eno reminded us that baseball players are actually human and do feel emotion when traded, especially on a moment’s notice at the trade deadline. Luckily for both Josh Reddick and Rich Hill, they won’t have to travel far to get to their new destinations, as both were traded together to the Dodgers, just five to six hours south of Oakland. Google Maps tells me that the quickest route is via I-5, though the scenic Pacific Coast Highway is another option. Sadly though, they would have to reroute as they approach the area affected by the wildfires near Big Sur. So let’s check the park factors to determine how the change in venue may affect each player’s performance.
It’s no surprise that a team sporting a 45-60 record has been selling off pieces over the past month. That’s exactly what has happened for the Padres, who now trots out a starting offense that includes many names most baseball fans and fantasy owners would have to search for on these very pages to learn more about (including me). So let’s dive into this no-name offense and see if we could find any hidden treasures.
After missing the entirety of the 2015 season and nearly two-thirds of this season, former top prospect Tyler Skaggs finally made his triumphant return from Tommy John surgery on Tuesday. Though the surface results are meaningless, he did go seven innings, striking out five, while issuing just one walk. The now-25-year-old showed serious strikeout ability in the minors and his ground ball spike in 2014 was intriguing. And although his strikeout rate slipped in 2014, his fastball velocity jumped three miles per hour, which is almost unheard of when it’s not related to a move from the starting rotation to the bullpen. So we had the makings of a true sleeper here. Now that he’s back, is he worth rostering?
No, your computer screen hasn’t frozen from several weeks ago, nor is FanGraphs on repeat. Instead, I’m double dipping, reiterating two recommendations I have made over the past month.
Yesterday, I discussed some of the starting pitchers whose xK% significantly exceeded their actual K% marks, suggesting strikeout rate upside over the rest of the season. Today, I’ll check in on the opposite end of the spectrum, looking at those fantasy relevant starting pitchers whose strikeout rates are far exceeding their xK% marks.
Let’s do one final rest of season xK% update. If you recall, my xK% equation uses Baseball-Reference.com metrics to calculate a pitcher expected strikeout rate. It’s missing a sequencing component, though who knows if that’s even a skill. But even without accounting for such, it has proven to be one of the best expected metrics we have developed, at least by R-squared. So let’s begin with the fantasy relevant starting pitchers whose expected strikeout rates are well above their actual marks, suggesting significant upside over the rest of the season.
