2016 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: August

Welcome to the final American League starting pitcher tiers of the season. The trade deadline deals resulted in several pitchers departing to the National League, with precious few arriving. With only about two months left in the season, potential innings limits are going to play a major role in rest of season value.

Tiers are named for the best characters on the brilliant FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

Tanaka (The P*nis Monster) & Chip (The Robot)

Chris Sale
Corey Kluber
David Price

So Chris Sale’s skills continued to tumble, as his strikeout and walk rates were at monthly worsts, while his ERA for the month jumped above 4.00 for the first time. His highest average fastball velocity in a single start this season was 94.7 mph, barely above the 94.5 mph he averaged last year. But, alas, given the weak state of the top of the heap in AL pitching, Sale remains here.

After posting ERAs above 4.00 in both April and May, Corey Kluber’s luck finally turned, and he has run a sub-3.00 ERA since. He hasn’t actually pitched any better, but has gotten better results, as his BABIP and HR/FB rates have declined.

David Price also finally enjoyed some better fortune, as his ERA sat below 4.00 for the first time in the month of July. His strikeout rate, though, has collapsed to a barely above league average rate since his elite April.

Jesus Christ

Carlos Carrasco

Despite a 2.22 ERA, Carlos Carrasco’s July performance was concerning, as his strikeout rate was just league average, while his walk rate spiked. It all led up to his disastrous first start this month, but I’m betting on his history here.

Adolf Hitler

Dallas Keuchel
Chris Archer
Felix Hernandez
Cole Hamels
Masahiro Tanaka
Michael Pineda
Justin Verlander
Danny Duffy
Yu Darvish

Dallas Keuchel’s May is tarnishing his overall line, but his skills have remained consistently solid. They are a step down from last season, of course, but I like the ZiPS rest of season projection calling for a 3.59 ERA.

Chris Archer finally posted a sub-4.00 ERA month in July, as his walk rate dropped to the best mark of the season. He’s still allowing home runs though, which is odd given his home park. Given his poor overall numbers, he’s a good target at a likely discount.

Felix Hernandez’s control continues to scare me, but he can’t be dropped another tier. If you’re an owner, just cross your fingers.

Gahhh, so much for the fortunes turning in June for Michael Pineda, as he reverted right back to the earlier season form with a 4.80 July ERA. Some of that was a walk rate spike, but mainly a ghastly 19.2% HR/FB rate. I maintain my faith.

It’s official — Danny Duffy has joined one of the top AL SP tiers. Innings don’t seem to be a concern and his strikeout rate is elite. He has maintained his surge in skills, though his fastball velocity has been down a notch compared to a month ago. It’s a mild concern, but obviously hasn’t hurt him at all.

Yu Darvish is back on the tiers after returning from the disabled list and enjoyed an outrageous July with a 38.2% strikeout rate. His walk rate has been fine as well. He remains a risk, of course, coming back from TJ surgery, but he looks like vintage Darvish.

Patti (Josh’s Mom)

Drew Smyly
Sonny Gray
Jake Odorizzi
Taijuan Walker
Jose Quintana
Ian Kennedy
Kevin Gausman
Matt Shoemaker
James Paxton
Marcus Stroman
Marco Estrada
Dylan Bundy
Drew Pomeranz

So both Drew Smyly and Sonny Gray have been dropped a tier. Smyly’s velocity has declined and his strikeouts have disappeared. I was bullish upon Gray’s return from the DL, but his skills are just meh, and without the guarantee of a suppressed BABIP, he’s just nothing special.

Man Kevin Gausman has been Jekyll and Hyde this year. He’s made six starts and allowed zero or one run, while also going three starts where he allowed three homers. His skills are solid overall though and his HR/FB rate should improve from its current inflated 17.6% mark.

After an insane May and June after upping his splitter usage, his Matt Shoemaker’s strikeout rate tumbled in July to just 19.4%. The risk was that hitters would adjust and we may have seen the results of that adjustment. Still, Shoemaker should remain a solid option even without the gaudy strikeout rates of those earlier two months.

James Paxton has maintained his velocity surge to 95+ mph, but since June, it hasn’t actually translated into strikeouts. In fact, he posted just a 16% strikeout rate in July! That’s pretty shocking given that both his curve and changeup sport fantastic SwStk% marks on the year. I think the results will come.

As soon as we collectively give up on Marcus Stroman, he goes and strikes out 13 Astros over seven innings! But his July performance was also excellent, as his strikeout rate jumped above 20%, while his walk rate was microscopic at 2.9%. His fastball velocity hasn’t improved, but he has been throwing his slider more frequently over the last month. It makes sense, since it’s his best secondary pitch. Because there’s an explanation via his pitch selection for his recent success, Stroman jumps back up a tier, which is where he began the season.

I finally caved and moved Marco Estrada up a tier. Obviously he’s not going to maintain a .208 BABIP. Okay, so it’s not a 100% guarantee seeing as he posted a .218 mark last year. But the odds are heavily stacked against him. But with an above average strikeout rate, and a clear ability to limit hits on balls in play, a mid-to-high 3.00 ERA is a good bet (which is much better than his current 4.24 SIERA), which would beat both his ZiPS and Steamer RoS projections. That fits him into this tier.

It seems like forever ago when Dylan Bundy was a top prospect, and now he finally gets his chance in the starting rotation. In four starts so far, he has posted a scintillating 30% strikeout rate, along with above average control, and a 3.30 SIERA. The performance has been driven by an elite changeup that has generated a ton of swings and misses. His high FB% in Camden Yards is dangerous though. One wonders how many innings he’ll be allowed to throw, as he was at just 22 last year and obviously has the injury history. He’s a mixed league starter while in the rotation.

Mike

Jordan Zimmermann
Hisashi Iwakuma
Collin McHugh
Yordano Ventura
Carlos Rodon
Josh Tomlin
Rick Porcello
Nathan Eovaldi
Chris Tillman
Michael Fulmer
Trevor Bauer
Steven Wright
Tyler Skaggs
Blake Snell

I finally dropped Yordano Ventura in my 12-team mixed league as he has been so up and down, both with his velocity and his control and strikeout ability from start to start. He’s now in mixed league streamer territory.

Michael Fulmer’s strikeout rate dropped to its lowest monthly mark in July at just 18.3%, but once again a low BABIP saved him. He’s now just 12 innings away from his total from last season. He’s a near lock to be shut down early or have his starts skipped here and there, which takes a bite out of his rest of season value.

Surprise, surprise, Steven Wright’s good fortune finally reversed and he posted a 6.23 ERA in July. It wasn’t due to any sort of change in underlying skills, but the balls in play suddenly falling for hits. His BABIP, which never jumped above .255 in any one month, surged to .367 in July. He’s still also facing the prospect of some serious HR/FB rate regression. Oh, and although knuckleballers have rubber arms and could seemingly throw 500 innings in a season, Wright is already sitting 13 innings above where he finished last year.

I discussed Tyler Skaggs last week, expressed my optimism, but like Darvish, is a risk coming back from TJ surgery. His fastball velocity was even higher in his second start, which is a great sign.

Santa

Mike Fiers
Sean Manaea
R.A. Dickey
Wade Miley
Ervin Santana
Edinson Volquez
Kyle Gibson
Kendall Graveman
Ricky Nolasco
Tyler Duffey
J.A. Happ