**To avoid confusion, yes this is supposed to read 2015. It’s a recap of my preseason article that discussed the 2015 xBABIP underachievers.
Today I continue to work my way through my preseason article recaps, this time focusing on xBABIP, the equation that the intelligent and very handsome Alex Chamberlain brewed up. We’ll start with the biggest underachievers from 2015. Let’s see how they performed this season.
So as I do annually, I compared my personal dollar values and resulting rankings to the RotoGraphs consensus rankings (excluding my own of course) at each position before the season began and identified those I was most bullish on as my picks and those I was bearish on as my pans. Last week, Brad Johnson published the catcher end of season values and rankings, so we’ll begin by reviewing my 2016 Pod’s Picks and Pans at catcher.
Yesterday, I reviewed the list of players my ESPN Home Run tracker analysis suggested had significant HR/FB rate downside this season. So today I’m going to check in on the group of players I identified as possessing serious upside. I would imagine this group would have done well simply due to the league-wide power surge. Let’s find out if that was indeed the case.
In addition to the analysis I conduct using my xHR/FB rate equation, I also still look at ESPN Home Run Tracker after the season ends. As usual, I identified a group of hitters before the 2016 season that based on the Home Run Tracker data, appeared to have serious HR/FB downside. Let’s find out how these hitters performed.
Yesterday, I review the five hitters with major HR/FB rate downside. Today, I’ll recap the list of hitters that would have been more actionable and beneficial for fantasy owners — the eight guys with serious HR/FB upside. As usual, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to settle on these names. Let’s find out how they performed.
The 2016 preseason recaps continue and we’re going to move to hitting for the rest of this week. In late January, I used my xHR/FB rate equation (which is likely to get an overhaul this offseason) to identify five hitters with major HR/FB rate downside. Let’s find out how the group performed.
Let’s finish up my preseason starting pitcher strikeout rate articles by looking at those I identified as possessing significant downside, as hinted at by my xK% equation. It’s a very different list than the one generated by the upsiders, as these tend to be the pitchers with high strikeout rates with seemingly the only direction to go moving forward is down.
Let’s continue the strikeout rate theme by reviewing my list of starting pitchers my xk% equation deemed holding strikeout rate upside in 2016. In the original article, I expressed that the list of names was rather boring, so let’s see if that turned out to be the case or if any gems were uncovered.
I have a total of 28 preseason prediction type articles I need to review, so let’s get rolling! Fingers are crossed that these recaps don’t make me look like a fool. Let’s begin by reviewing my spring training starting pitchers strikeout rate surgers and breakout candidates. The idea here was that underlying skills posted during spring training do carry em>some predictive value, so perhaps those starting pitchers that enjoyed a strikeout rate spike would see a jump in rate during the regular season as well.
Yesterday, I reviewed my 2016 bold hitter league leaders and was ecstatic for even getting just one correct. Today, I’ll check in on my bold pitcher league leaders. Let’s see if I could match my hitter success. Check out my original article with full reasoning behind my choices.
