Towards the end of 2016, one of the most exciting new metrics was introduced using Statcast data — Barrels, which are “well-struck ball[s] where the combination of exit velocity and launch angle generally leads to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage”. But counting stats aren’t exactly the best when evaluating performance, as playing time factors in, and we don’t want that. Luckily, Baseball Savant also provides us with a “batted ball event (BBE)” number, and then generously does the math for us, calculating a Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE), which I then use for my analysis. Given that Brls/BBE is a pure measure of power, it stands to reason that we want to see our favorite power surgers enjoy major growth in the metric from one year to the next, in order to validate that increased output. So let’s check in on the Brls/BBE surgers from 2016 to 2017.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, the Giants decided that Pablo Sandoval wasn’t actually the answer at third base for them in 2018 and traded for Rays-lifer Evan Longoria. Now, Longoria’s chances of rebounding in the home run category have just gone splat. While he has posted HR/FB rates in the mid-to-high teens for most of his career, that mark dipped just below 11% in 2014 and 2015, before rebounding back into the mid-teens in 2016, en route to a career high homer total. The rebound was short-lived though, as his HR/FB rate fell back down to just 10.5% — a career low — this season. Given that he’s not so totally over the hill and he has shown strong power skills as recently as that 2016 season, you had to have figured some sort of dead cat bounce. But now, that bounce is far less likely to occur.

Read the rest of this entry »

In my Monday post discussing how park factors may affect Zack Cozart’s performance, I responded to a comment opining that “the Angels IF defense is going to be insane” with the following:

The offense should be above average and that defense and upgraded offense means potentially serious bumps to Angels starting pitchers.

I said that without actually doing any research on how the Angels defense performed in 2017 or looking into the batted ball distributions of the pitchers and how that matches with the strengths of the fielding unit. So let’s do that now.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, the Athletics traded for Stephen Piscotty, alleviating a bit of the great depth in the Cardinals outfield. Piscotty is coming off a forgettable offensive performance, in which he dealt with injuries, a minor league demotion, and the terrible news that his mother was diagnosed with ALS. Typically, the knee-jerk reaction is a move to Oakland will likely hamper a hitter’s offensive results. But surprisingly, this appears to be one of those rare instances in which the park switch may actually provide a boost. Let’s dive in.

Read the rest of this entry »

So the Angels are apparently going for it all, eh? First, they signed Shohei Otani, then traded for Ian Kinsler, and have now signed Zack Cozart, who figures to play third base with defensive stud Andrelton Simmons entrenched at shortstop. Moving out of the perceived hitter friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati and into an environment perceived to be far more favorable for pitchers, let’s find out how the relevant park factors may impact Cozart’s performance.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Marlins are in full-on fire sale mode and the latest player to say goodbye to Miami is 2017 breakout outfielder Marcell Ozuna. A career high .388 wOBA and 37 homers earned him a ticket out of town, as sources confirm he has been dealt to the Cardinals. We all know that Marlins Park was pitcher friendly, but unfortunately, he’s moving to another offense suppressing home park. Let’s check out the park factors, courtesy of StatCorner.

Read the rest of this entry »

I think Ryan Schimpf is my favorite player. He takes the word extreme to an entirely new level, ranking at or near both the top and bottom of various statistical categories, for the better and for the worse. That’s what makes him such a fascinating hitter. He debuted with the Padres in 2016 to excellent results over about a half a season’s worth of plate appearances. He was a new breed of hitter – a five true outcomes type, as his plate appearances generally ended with either a walk, strikeout, fly out, pop-up, or home run. The approach worked that season, but failed miserably in 2017. His performance earned him a demotion to the minors, and ultimately a ticket out of San Diego.

Read the rest of this entry »

The best inspiration for an article is one in which you find a meaningful leaderboard, sort away, and identify who doesn’t belong. The surprise of the group, if you will. That player is most certainly going to be fun to discuss! That brings me to Eddie Rosario. If you perform a Statcast search and select only “Barrel” for “Quality of Contact” from August through the end of the season, you will be presented with a leaderboard of top sluggers ranked by number of barreled balls they hit during that time period. The top 10 is littered with your standard who’s who of the game’s best power hitters. Then you get down to #14 and who do you find, none other than Eddie Rosario.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, the Cubs signed Tyler Chatwood, who has had the unfortunate luck of spending the majority of his Major League career pitching half his games in the most offense friendly home park. He has still managed to perform respectably given the circumstances, posting a 4.31 ERA and 95 ERA- (5% better than league average where lower is better) over his career, which includes 142 innings with the Angels in his 2011 debut. Now heading into his age 28 season, let’s see how the park factors compare between Wrigley Field and Coors Field and why the move makes him a prime sleeper.

Read the rest of this entry »

Alas, we have finally reached our final 2017 preseason article recap! Welllll, this one shouldn’t have been the last one, but no one wants to read a recap of my David Dahl Pod Projection, right? So we wrap things up by reviewing my Pod Projection for curveball aficionado Lance McCullers, who was coming off around 200 innings of 3.22 ERA ball supported by strong skills over his first two seasons. Health was a question mark, but there was no doubting his talent. Let’s remind ourselves what I forecasted for his 2017 performance and how he actually performed.

Read the rest of this entry »