Author Archive: Mike Podhorzer

Last week, I calculated every hitter’s xHR/FB rate, and then listed and discussed those whose marks were well above their actual HR/FB rates (suggesting imminent improvement) and those whose marks were most below their actual HR/FB rates (suggesting imminent decline). Those posts provided some actionable advice, in the form of buy low targets and guys you might want to consider selling high. But what about the hitters whose underlying skills actually justify their HR/FB rate spikes? These are the guys you might consider buying high, or if you already own the player, shouldn’t rush to sell high.

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You need help in your deep league. I’m here for you.

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Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters whose xHR/FB rates most exceeded their actual HR/FB rates, suggesting the potential for dramatic upside in the near term. Today, let’s check in on those hitters on the opposite side of the ledger — those whose actual HR/FB rates most exceed their xHR/FB marks. This is the group at major risk of regression.

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With about a month of the season in the bag, it’s finally time to analyze my newest version of xHR/FB rate unveiled last year. This is the best method publicly available for calculating an expected HR/FB rate, so ignore any analysis solely revolving around Brls/BBE or exit velocity. So let’s find out which hitters have posted xHR/FB rate marks at least 10% above their actual marks. These hitters are due for imminent improvement.

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A week ago, I discussed the American League starting pitchers who have improved their Z-Contact% (batter contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone) most versus 2017. Today, let’s take a look at the pitchers on the other side — those who have induced fewer in-zone whiffs, meaning their Z-Contact% marks are well above what they posted last season.

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Who wants to join me under the sea, exploring the deep depths of the free agent waters?

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Yesterday, I ran my newest xBABIP calculations, comparing it to actual BABIP. I discussed a slew of hitters who are due for an imminent BABIP surge given xBABIP marks that greatly exceed their actuals. Today, let’s check in on those hitters whose xBABIP marks are significantly below their actual marks. These batters are at serious risk of dramatic regression over the rest of the season.

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Last year, I unveiled the latest version of my xBABIP equation. It utilizes our Splits Leaderboard in order to account for defensive shifts, something that has never been reflected in xBABIP formulas previously. As a result, it does the best job we’ve seen so far in estimating BABIP. So let’s check in on early xBABIP marks and discuss those who have underperformed the most. These guys are due for an imminent surge as balls fall in for hits on a far more frequent basis.

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As it remains far too early to actually analyze results (like ERA and WHIP), let’s continue discussing the underlying skills driving those results. Those skills are significantly more important when projecting for the future. So let’s find out which American League starting pitchers have improved their in-zone whiff rate the most. In FG metric parlance, that means calculating who has reduce their Z-Contact% by the greatest rate.

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This week’s deep league waiver wire is brought to you by the injury demon. This demon makes frequent visits. His presence creates opportunities for lesser owned players to make deep league contributions. Here are two of those candidates.

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