Seven Surprising 2017 Brls/BBE Bottom Dwellers

Let’s shift back to the bottom of the Statcast leaderboard and discuss seven names you might be surprised to find down there. The surprise won’t be driven by a bunch of guys who just posted 20% HR/FB rates yet don’t have the barrels to explain such results, but rather one of “whoa, his power really did dry up in 2017, what happened?!”.

In 2017, league average Brls/BBE was 6.4%, while the median mark was 5.3%. The median is much lower because it includes the many hitters who recorded few plate appearances and batted ball events, a group which likely posted lower Brls/BBE marks. After all, more power equals more playing time, all else being equal. The average is weighted and so the 437 batted ball events from Giancarlo Stanton, who posted a 17.4% Brls/BBE is going to pull up that mark, but ends up counting the same as the 16 batted ball events from Brett Eibner, who posted a slightly better 18.8% Brls/BBE.

I first discussed Xander Bogaerts‘ tiny 2017 Brls/BBE mark last week when revealing the largest decliners from 2016. Amazingly, his microscopic Brls/BBE ranked just 462nd out of 540 players, and I even noticed some pitchers ahead of him in the rankings! Bogaerts was supposed to grow into an above average power hitting shortstop, right? Looking back at old top prospect articles in which he was the organization’s top guy, comments included:

Heading into 2013:

He has an advanced hitting approach and generates outstanding power despite having a slender frame with tons of projection remaining. His pop comes from above-average bat speed.

Heading into 2014:

He generates good pop thanks to his quick bat but he still has more power to grow into as he matures as a hitter.

What happened to that power?! I think it’s safe to say that coming off his fourth full season, the Red Sox and fantasy owners expected far more than a career .127 ISO and 8.1% HR/FB rate, with career highs of just .152 and 11.4%. He’s still just 25 years old, so obviously he has more than enough time to enjoy a power spike in the coming years. But at this point, hopes for power growth are going to be solely based on scouting reports from years back and/or standard age-based progression. Nothing in his skill set suggests a power surge is imminent.

Jonathan Lucroy is probably a popular example from 2017 of why some fantasy owners refuse to pay for top tier catchers. It’s silly though, because there are busts at every position. But how often does it happen where a hitter enjoys a career best power season, with highs in both ISO and HR/FB rate, to then immediately follow up with career worsts? It’s weird. Since Lucroy is a catcher, you always have to wonder if health played a role. He’s still milling about in the free agent pool, so we’ll have to see where he signs before assessing his 2018 value.

Though his HR/FB rate was only down marginally, Ian Desmond’s Brls/BBE collapsed and sat near the bottom of the leaderboard. The fact that this happened while he played half his games at hitter friendly Coors Field made it all the more surprising. As I mentioned in my blurb in the Brls/BBE decliner post I linked to in the intro, injuries were likely to blame here. It’s a miracle that he still managed to post a low-teen HR/FB rate, despite that puny Brls/BBE mark. It means he might not come at as much of a discount.

Yulieski Gurriel posted a career .245 ISO in Cuba and 18.9 at-bat per home run ratio. In MLB, his ISO has slipped to just .175, while he has launched a homer every 31.4 at-bats. That regression, especially given that he’s already 33, doesn’t seem so outrageous. But when it’s supported by such minuscule Brls/BBE marks, you do have wonder a little bit. And besides, his Brls/BBE was actually identical in 2017 to 2016, yet his HR/FB rate jumped from 6.7% to 10.8%. He even hit his fly balls toward the lines less often in 2017. So that 2017 mark looks like it benefited from some good fortune, which means his power appears to actually be a bit worse than the results would indicate. I wouldn’t expect another increase in HR/FB rate in 2018 as that Brls/BBE needs to rise just to justify what he did in 2017.

Sadly, Buster Posey’s Brls/BBE fully explains his career low HR/FB rate. Sure, he was likely never significantly better than the league average, but this is downright embarrassing. Like Lucroy above, you never know how a catcher is feeling and what might be hampering his power in a given season. Posey has caught 6,794 innings since 2009, so you have to wonder how much of a toll that has taken on his hitting performance – his ISO and HR/FB rates have dwindled each season since 2014.

The intrigue with Gregory Polanco was that combination of power and speed. Unfortunately, he barely showed any of this two skills in 2017. The power decline was likely due to the shoulder issues he dealt with in spring training, which means that if healthy now, he could rebound this year and deliver a tidy profit for his owners.

Matt Wieters‘ debut back in 2009 was so exciting that the hilarious Matt Wieters Facts website was launched with jokes about all the wonderful other things Wieters could do off the field. Sadly, the content on the website, while still being updated regularly, is no longer about Wieters at all. While Wieters has certainly enjoyed a respectable career, it has definitely been a bit of a disappointment and his appearance on this list suggests that the end may be near. The Nationals may also be losing faith:

One thing that's clear from Martinez/Rizzo: Wieters will catch fewer games this year. Rizzo said they are "cool with" Severino as the backup. I would imagine they would be cool with a more proven option at the right price, too.

— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) December 11, 2017

If he can’t rebound offensively to keep his name in the lineup and keep those off-days to a minimum, things won’t be looking too good for his future.