Yesterday, I discussed the nine hitters whose Auto Out% (AO%) had improved most versus 2017. As a reminder, AO% is simply the sum of strikeouts and infield fly balls (aka, popups) divided by plate appearances. Let’s take a look at the hitters whose AO% has risen most dramatically versus last season.
Last week, I introduced Auto Out% (AO%), which is just strikeouts and infield fly balls (IFFB) as a percentage of plate appearances. I began by discussing the starting pitchers who have increased their AO% most since 2017. Let’s now turn our attention to the hitters. Using the same formula, these are the nine hitters who have most improved their AO%.
Auto Out% (AO%) surgers…huh?! Yeah, I just made it up. But you know what this metric is because my colleagues have written articles about it. It’s simply strikeouts plus infield flies as a percentage of batters faced. These are essentially automatic outs, hence the name Auto Out%. We know that for pitchers, strikeouts are the best plate appearance result because it’s an almost guaranteed out. But infield fly balls aren’t too far behind in terms of out conversion. Yet, we focus far more on a pitcher’s strikeout rate than his popup rate, which is often completely ignored. Combining them gives us even better information than focusing on just one of the pair. So let’s find out which starting pitchers have improved their AO% the most versus 2017.
If you’re dying to catch an outfielder, this is the waiver wire piece for you. This is especially true if you’re in an NL-Only league, where this pair is almost assured of delivering positive fantasy value in the near term.
Shohei Ohtani’s arrival in Major League baseball caused chaos for fantasy league service providers. With his ability to both hit and pitch, every service and individual league needed to determine how to handle his stats and position eligibility. Unfortunately, not every site or league adopted the same rules, which means that some league may find themselves in stick situations they did not foresee. Such a situation just arose in one of my leagues that I would like to share with you in exchange for your insightful feedback and suggestions.
Since I’m not in enough fantasy league to own every Major League hitter, I am frequently surprised when I see season home run totals. Even for the guys I own, I am not necessarily aware of how many home runs they currently have. One example is Shin-Soo Choo, who I actually own in two leagues, but didn’t even realize he was already up to 17 homers, just five fewer than his career high. He’s not included in this post, however, because I want to dive into the real surprises that essentially no one saw coming. So let’s discuss seven hitters with at least 15 home runs that no one predicted.
While HR/FB rate has dropped back to its 2016 elevated level after a final spike in 2017, this season’s 12.6% mark still ranks third going back to 2002. Also keep in mind that home run rates typically rise into the summer, so this mark will likely jump back above 2016. Given the frequency of fly balls leaving the yard, it’s more important than ever that pitchers keep the ball on the ground. Some are doing that more often this season, while others are not. Let’s check in on both sides of the coin.
Yesterday, I identified and discussed eight hitters who boosted their fly ball rates from May to June by the greatest amount. Today, I’ll check in on batters whose fly ball rates have plummeted from May to June. For some, this is actually a positive, while for others, it’s a potentially ominous sign for their power.
Leaguewide fly ball rate is up again this year, though barely. Its current 35.6% mark is the highest since 2011, which is a reminders that this so-called fly ball revolution is merely pushing the rate back to where it had been after a temporary dip. As usual, there are individual players who have changed their swing to hopefully tap into their power. Let’s discuss the eight hitters who have enjoyed the largest fly ball rate surge from May to June. All else equal, more flies equals more homers, so from a fantasy perspective, a higher FB% is typically a good thing (though not always).
A week ago, I listed and discussed eight starting pitchers who have enjoyed the biggest jumps in fastball velocity. As the weather warms, velocity rises on average, so we would expect the typical starter to post an average velocity higher in June than May. But that isn’t the case for everyone, of course. So let’s discuss six whose fastball velocity is actually down from May. It’s not an automatic red flag or sign of injury, but it’s something to monitor as it could lead to performance decline.
