Hitter Auto Out Percentage Improvers

Last week, I introduced Auto Out% (AO%), which is just strikeouts and infield fly balls (IFFB) as a percentage of plate appearances. I began by discussing the starting pitchers who have increased their AO% most since 2017. Let’s now turn our attention to the hitters. Using the same formula, these are the nine hitters who have most improved their AO%.

We’re comparing JaCoby Jones’s AO% to a 2017 mark over just 154 plate appearances, where he struck out just over 42% of the time. So yeah, it would be scary if he didn’t dramatically improve this season. The thing is, while he has brought his strikeout rate to below 30%, his percentage of plate appearances ending in a pop-up has skyrocketed from 1.3% to 3.8%. It’s great to cut down on the whiffs, but if you’re essentially just swapping them out for pop-ups, there’s no real improvement. Since he rarely walks, he can’t afford to be giving away so many outs. With some power and speed, he’s a better fantasy player than real-life player, though he’s been strong defensively.

Holy guacamole, I had no idea that Corey Dickerson has improved his strikeout rate so considerably, from 24.2% to just 13% this year, which easily represents a career best. Sometimes, that’s accomplished by swinging at everything. He has always swung at more pitches than the average bear, but he’s not doing so any more than he had been. Instead, he’s making much better contact. So better than league average contact + swinging often means his at-bats aren’t lasting long enough for him to strike out. Unfortunately, his power output has plummeted, so the increased contact may very well be taking a bite out of that power. He may have to choose between the contact or the power. Currently, his wOBA suggests he’s the same hitter either way.

How do you make the most of Coors Field? By cutting down on your strikeouts, of course! Trevor Story struck out far too frequently, especially for a hitter who calls Coors home. But this year, he’s improved that rate significantly and it hasn’t hampered his power. You never know whether such an improvement in strikeout rate will last, but he’s obviously a top tier shortstop for as long as it does.

Kyle Schwarber’s improvement is actually equally from an improved strikeout rate and pop-up rate. Those improvements have meant that he’s not a complete drag on batting average and is now relatively elite in OBP leagues.

Nick Markakis’s season is a perfect example of how much luck plays a role in fantasy baseball. Who would have ever predicted the 34-year-old would be sitting with the second highest wOBA of his career at the all-star break and have made his first all-star team?! After six straight seasons of rising strikeout rates, Markakis is down to his lowest mark since 2013. The improved contact hasn’t hampered his power, as his ISO stands at its highest since 2012. It’s hard to believe he’ll deliver anywhere near the same value during the second half, as he’s almost all batting average driven now and any slippage in power or jump in strikeout rate will drop him back into the free agent pool.

A dramatic improvement in strikeout rate hasn’t helped Amed Rosario’s performance at all. That’s because both his BABIP and HR/FB rate have slipped, but the reduced strikeout rate, as well as a jump in walk rate to merely bad, rather than atrocious, is a positive step in his development. With a bit of power and speed, he’s a sleeper for the second half, though his spot in the lineup could hold back his counting stats.

For the first time, Brandon Belt’s strikeout rate has nudged below 20%, and he’s back to rarely popping up after a blip last year. Seriously, get this guy out of San Francisco.

Soooo, I guess Michael Brantley is healthy, eh? At age 31, his strikeout rate now sits at the second lowest mark of his career (it’s pretty amazing that even at 8.4%, it’s still just his second lowest, albeit barely). He also continues to pop-up infrequently, and he’s maintained a single digit IFFB% for seven straight seasons (excluding his injury shortened 2016). As long as he remains off the DL, nothing in his underlying skills screams fluke.

Count me as one of those who had though Eugenio Suarez was a fluke…in 2016. Then again last year. And again now? He just keeps improving, has pushed his strikeout rate below 20%, while cutting down on his pop-ups, walking at a double digit clip once again, and hitting tons of line drives. With a 51.7% Hard%, it’s hard to argue he’s a fluke anymore. Which is why I won’t. I don’t know where this came from, but I now fully believe in Suarez. Just took a little while.