Yesterday, I identified and discussed eight hitters who boosted their fly ball rates from May to June by the greatest amount. Today, I’ll check in on batters whose fly ball rates have plummeted from May to June. For some, this is actually a positive, while for others, it’s a potentially ominous sign for their power.
Leaguewide fly ball rate is up again this year, though barely. Its current 35.6% mark is the highest since 2011, which is a reminders that this so-called fly ball revolution is merely pushing the rate back to where it had been after a temporary dip. As usual, there are individual players who have changed their swing to hopefully tap into their power. Let’s discuss the eight hitters who have enjoyed the largest fly ball rate surge from May to June. All else equal, more flies equals more homers, so from a fantasy perspective, a higher FB% is typically a good thing (though not always).
A week ago, I listed and discussed eight starting pitchers who have enjoyed the biggest jumps in fastball velocity. As the weather warms, velocity rises on average, so we would expect the typical starter to post an average velocity higher in June than May. But that isn’t the case for everyone, of course. So let’s discuss six whose fastball velocity is actually down from May. It’s not an automatic red flag or sign of injury, but it’s something to monitor as it could lead to performance decline.
Yesterday, I discussed the seven players whose ownership rate jumped the most in CBS leagues. Today, I’m going to check in on the dropped players. I often find opportunity here a pitchers coming off one bad start get jettisoned or a hitter in a cold spell are kicked to the curb. The dropped list is a bit tougher to analyze, though, as many of them were bitten by the injury bug and placed on the DL, or demoted to the minors. So I’m only going to include those that are healthy and remain in the Majors.
It’s always fun to discover which players fantasy owners are rushing out to the free agent pool to add to their rosters. Typically, it’s the hot player of the week or the pitcher coming off one good start. But sometimes, the player was criminally underowned to begin with, and the ownership surge simply get this percentage to where it should have been. So let’s check out the hottest pickups in CBS leagues and decide whether fantasy owners are right to be rushing to add these players to their teams.
We know that the average pitcher gains velocity as the season wears on, typically adding around a mile an hour by the end of the year versus where he began. But, obviously, not every pitcher follows that pattern. So it would be beneficial to learn which pitchers have gained significant velocity month-to-month, as it might portend improved results. Let’s discuss eight starting pitchers who have gained the most velocity from May to June.
Today’s deep league wire features a blast from the past and a hitter at a position you are almost surely in need of upgrading.
Yesterday, I used my xBABIP equation to identify and discuss eight hitters who appear due for a BABIP surge. Today, I’ll check in on the other side of the ledger, those whose xBABIP marks are significantly below their actuals, suggesting serious downside.
Last year, I utilized our Splits Leaderboard and incorporated shift data into my newest xBABIP equation. So with just a couple of weeks before the all-star break, let’s calculate xBABIP for all hitters and discuss eight of them whose marks are significantly higher than their actual BABIPs, suggesting dramatic upside potential.
At the beginning of the year, I revealed the latest and greatest xHR/FB rate equation for hitters. I discovered that the new Statcast metric Barrels was highly correlated with home run totals (duh), but better yet, the ratio of barrels to true fly balls (which is just fly balls minus pop-ups), was even more correlated. If Brls/True FB is an important metric for hitter HR/FB rate, then it follows that it’s also important for pitchers as it relates to their HR/FB rate allowed. So let’s compare a pitcher’s Brls/True FB rate to his HR/FB rate and see if we could find any discrepancies that would hint at improvement.
| Name | HR/True FB | Brls/True FB |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| Blake Snell | 12.3% | 16.4% |
| Jameson Taillon | 13.6% | 16.9% |
| CC Sabathia | 14.3% | 17.1% |
| Tanner Roark | 13.6% | 17.3% |
| Gerrit Cole | 13.0% | 17.4% |
| Jose Quintana | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| Population Average | 14.0% | 23.3% |
My population was the 92 qualified starting pitchers and that’s what the population average line is calculated from.
Eduardo Rodriguez’s HR/True FB sits below the league average, but not by much. He actually ranks fifth lowest in Brls/True FB, and out of the top 11 that includes him, he has the highest mark, outside of two Rockies pitchers. Fenway Park isn’t a home run friendly park, so can’t blame it on that. While it’s questionable whether E-Rod could actually maintain such a sterling Brls/True FB mark, his HR/True FB rate should probably be in the single digits given what has happened so far. He has maintained that strikeout rate surge he enjoyed last year and is backed by an excellent offense. He should be owned in all formats.
Man, there have been a lot of things that Blake Snell has done to truly impress me. Add his weak contact induced on fly balls to the growing list. Interestingly, he also plays half his games in a home run suppressing park, so you would think that ranking 12th in Brls/True FB would also lead to a single digit HR/True FB rate. With Snell, you’ll always be wondering if his control is going to desert him, but so far, so good. I’m a big fan.
Jameson Taillon allowed a homer in yesterday’s start, and that’s likely to change these rates. That said, he’s the third of three who sits with a HR/True FB rate above what his Brls/True FB would suggest, despite calling a pitching friendly venue home. Taillon reminds me of Gerrit Cole in that his stuff suggests much gaudier strikeout rates. It’s likely a Pirates organizational thing, but it’s silly. What Cole has done in Houston should make the team realize that pitching to contact isn’t a winning strategy.
Wow, what a transformation CC Sabathia has made! As his velocity and strikeout rate has tumbled, he has become better and better at generating soft contact. He needs to sit Felix Hernandez down and teach him how to pitch with diminished stuff. He’s the first guy on here who plays in a home run friendly venue, which certainly would push his HR/FB rate higher than his Brls/True FB. Still, he should be better than this.
Tanner Roark quietly does his thing, putting up solid ERA marks, despite mediocre underlying skills. But this year he’s really squashing fly ball contact quality. His appearance returns us to the list of pitchers playing in pitcher’s parks. Bizarre.
Speak of the devil, I had forgotten that Gerrit Cole made the list when I mentioned him in the Taillon blurb. If there was anything else we could point to in order to describe his dominance.
Jose Quintana easily owns the highest HR/True FB rate on this list, which has conspired to push his ERA above 4.00. Issues with the longball only exacerbates his sudden struggle with control. Interestingly, he never had issues in Chicago, another friendly home run park, and Wrigley Field isn’t nearly as bad. I would still never own a pitcher with such a weak SwStk%, as I don’t believe in his low-to-mid 20% strikeout rate, but at the very least, Quintana’s HR/True FB should decline.
