Max Stassi & Matt Andriese: Deep League Wire
May 30, 2018
Who needs a catcher? We all do! Find your new one here. In addition, jettison your 5.00 starter for this studly middle reliever.
Author Archive
2018 June Potential Starting Pitcher xwOBA Regressors
May 29, 2018
Back from Portugal! Thankfully, technology is amazing and I haven’t missed a baseball beat. Before I left, I listed and discussed the starting pitchers who had posted significantly worse wOBA against marks than their Statcast xwOBA marks. So today I’ll look at the pitchers on the other side of the coin, those who have most outperformed their xwOBA marks, and therefore may be in for some serious regression.
2018 Mid-May Potential Starting Pitcher xwOBA Improvers
May 17, 2018
Earlier this week, I looked at Statcast’s expected metrics to identify hitters who may improve or decline from their current ISO marks. Today, let’s talk pitchers. I’m simply going to sort the Expected Stats leaderboard by difference between wOBA and xwOBA and discuss the fantasy relevant starting pitchers with the biggest negative gaps between wOBA and xwOBA (higher wOBA than xwOBA). Remember that xwOBA fails to account for home ballpark, defensive support, quality and opposition, and perhaps other factors I’m not able to come up with at the moment. It’s why I stick to the extremes, as even with all factors accounted for, it’s highly likely these guys are still due for the same directional move in wOBA, though perhaps not to the same degree.
Jalen Beeks & Christin Stewart: Deep League Wire
May 16, 2018
After many years in AL Tout Wars, I finally discovered one of the major keys to success – anticipation. Picking up players before their call up who may have a significant fantasy impact is a wise move. I had written down the names of two of these players last week, but unfortunately I once again forgot that we had moved the FAAB deadline to 1 PM from midnight and therefore failed to make any bids. Naturally, both players were bid on, but it probably didn’t matter for me as I likely would have been outbid.
2018 May Isolated Slugging Decliners
May 15, 2018
Yesterday, I used the Statcast expected metrics to calculate player xISO marks, then comparing them to actuals. I began by looking at those hitters who have posted ISO marks most below their xISO marks, suggesting the potential for significant upside in the near future. Today, let’s discuss hitters whose actual ISO marks have most exceeded their xISO marks, suggesting possible downside.
2018 May Isolated Slugging Surgers
May 14, 2018
This year, the Baseball Savant pages at MLB.com have shared even more data, as new metrics are being calculated and published for our analytic pleasure. The Expected Statistics page calculates a hitter’s expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA. Sweet! Though I can’t recall any exhaustive research studies on the predictive power of their expected metrics, I know the Statcast guys are top notch and trust they have done a good job.
Is There Any Hope For These Disappointing Starting Pitchers?
May 10, 2018
For the vast majority of the season, I completely ignore ERA, instead relying on SIERA for rest of season projection purposes. While this method is far better than looking solely at ERA, what about the pitchers you expected to be good, but have been terrible, with weak skills to match? These are the guys whose SIERA confirms they have pitched poorly, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will continue posting such weak skills. So let’s discuss three starters we expected better from, but whose current skills don’t provide much hope for a rebound.
Jose Reyes & Devin Mesoraco — Deep League Wire
May 9, 2018
It’s an all Mets edition of the deep league waiver wire! I could hear the excitement through my computer screen.
2018 Early HR/FB Negative Validations
May 8, 2018
Yesterday, I used my xHR/FB rate equation to identify and discuss ten hitters who have enjoyed a surprise HR/FB rate surge that is actually justified. Today, let’s dive into the disappointing HR/FB guys who xHR/FB rate confirms the power outage. An appearance here doesn’t guarantee doom and gloom the rest of the way, but that these hitters haven’t been unlucky so far, but actually powerless.
2018 Early HR/FB Positive Validations
May 7, 2018
Last week, I calculated every hitter’s xHR/FB rate, and then listed and discussed those whose marks were well above their actual HR/FB rates (suggesting imminent improvement) and those whose marks were most below their actual HR/FB rates (suggesting imminent decline). Those posts provided some actionable advice, in the form of buy low targets and guys you might want to consider selling high. But what about the hitters whose underlying skills actually justify their HR/FB rate spikes? These are the guys you might consider buying high, or if you already own the player, shouldn’t rush to sell high.