Call-ups, call-ups, and call-ups! It’s an exciting time in the season, when teams with no shot at the playoffs begin giving their prospects an opportunity. Two of these prospects are highlighted today.
Closer turnover has been crazy over the last month or so. Based on the latest Bullpen Report, only 10 current de facto closers were in that same role heading into the season. That’s nuts! It’s also precisely why I don’t pay market prices for the top tier of closers on draft day. It’s not because I don’t think they will earn that value (guys like Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman certainly have), but because there are so many saves available for free during the season, I prefer to spend my auction budget elsewhere.
After recent trades of their incumbents, the Twins and White Sox have not formally announced a replacement closer. Between the two teams, the Bullpen Report identifies five pitchers total that would form committees. That’s essentially saying we have no idea. So let’s speculate!
I was a big fan of Sean Manaea heading into the season, believing that his above average SwStk% and superb minor league strikeout rates, would lead to a strikeout rate surge this year. Through April, my optimism was paying off, as he had struck out 23.6% of the batters he faced and posted a microscopic 1.03 ERA. Ever since that sparkling month, his ability to punch out batters has completely eroded. Why?
The non-waiver trade deadline has passed, which resulted in a flurry of deals that have vaulted many players into new roles. Let’s discuss two beneficiaries.
Rougned Odor hasn’t been the only veteran hitter who has turned around his season in a hurry recently. After getting off to an absolutely, incomprehensibly brutal start, Kole Calhoun has been on fire over the last month. Conveniently, Calhoun missed about two and a half weeks in early June due to an oblique strain, so let’s split his season into his pre- and post-injury periods.
You know why we harp so much on trusting the projections? Every single season, there are a slew of hitters who start off sizzling or excruciatingly slow, and because of recency bias, we tend to think this is going to be the new norm for these players. Sure, this ends up being the case for some of them, but for the vast majority, eventually they do perform just as we expected. This is perfectly illustrated by Rougned Odor.
A former top prospect, Kevin Gausman owns a 4.27 ERA/100 ERA-/97 FIP- over his career, spanning 127 games started and 763.2 innings pitched. While that has been perfectly acceptable, we expected much more than just a league average pitcher. With good control and a mid-90s fastball that has apparently peaked at 101.2 mph, his mediocre strikeouts rates have also been head scratching. But perhaps, he has new life after being traded to the Braves on trade deadline day. Will the change in parks help him realize his potential?
Man, it was no fun this year being in an AL-Only league, as the biggest name to cross over was Tommy Pham. Last year, he enjoyed a surprise breakout, posting a .398 wOBA, driven by power, speed, and BABIP skillZ. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone nearly as well for him this season, as his wOBA has plummeted to just .320, thanks to a decline in his HR/FB rate and dive in his BABIP. Having lost some playing time in St. Louis recently, he should return to being an every day player in Tampa. How might his new home park impact his performance? Let’s find out.
This is an updated version of an article originally posted in 2013 and then reposted in 2015 and 2017. It’s a vitally important exercise to perform, so I think it’s worthwhile to continue to resurface it each season around this time.
Heading into the final two months of the season, the effect any individual player will have on our place in the standings has continued to diminish, which means that this time of year represents one of the final chances to improve our teams. It probably doesn’t need to be stated, but it’s important to reiterate for those still clinging to preseason values (I usually cling to them far longer than most, but even I know to give them up at this point!) — you need to essentially throw player values out the window and trade for needs based on your position in the various statistical categories. Don’t worry about overpaying if you still expect the trade to net you positive points. Obviously, you want to make a trade that brings back the greatest value in return and gain you the most standings points, but if the best return offered to you is a player whose owner paid $15 for him during the auction for your $25 player, it’s still absolutely worth accepting if you determine that it should gain you points.
The non-waiver trade deadline is almost upon us! So far, it’s been relatively uneventful, but there was one big name that was on the move — the Moose himself, Mike Moustakas. The Brewers traded some of their outfield depth for about two months of Moustakas to boost their chances of making the playoffs. Let’s compare the relevant park factors to to determine how much this change in home parks could impact his performance.
