Cedric Mullins & Taylor Ward: Deep League Wire
Call-ups, call-ups, and call-ups! It’s an exciting time in the season, when teams with no shot at the playoffs begin giving their prospects an opportunity. Two of these prospects are highlighted today.
Cedric Mullins | OF BAL | CBS 8% Owned
Mullins made his MLB debut last Friday and figures to earn the majority, if not all, of the center field starts for the Orioles. With the worst record in baseball and a hilarious 49.5 games back in the division, the team has all the incentive in the world to test out their prospects.
Mullins entered the season as our sixth best Orioles prospect. The best thing Eric Longenhagen said about him was:
But he’s trending up, has tools and athleticism, and has performed, on paper, every year.
Give me a guy who has actually performed over the guy who scouts expect to eventually perform, every day. Since making his professional debut back in 2015, he has never struck out more than 18.1% of the time, and just once did his SwStk% reach double digits at an even 10% at Single-A in 2016. He has shown a bit of pop, socking 11 homers down on the farm this year, plus ISO marks over .190 during a stop at Single-A and two at Double-A.
His real potential contribution, though, comes from his speed. Graded as owning 60 speed, he stole 21 bases this year, while only being caught once. That’s someone who you actually want to run! He stole as many as 30 bases, achieved in 2016. Over his minor league career, his stolen base success rate sat at an excellent 81%.
The major flaw here is his modest BABIP marks. He has posted a sub-.300 mark three times, so even with ability to make contact, he has only managed to hit above .273 once. BABIP skills translate pretty well to MLB, so he could struggle with the Orioles in that department as well.
While he’s unlikely to be a real positive in batting average, the steals potential and the occasional homer means he needs to be picked up in deeper leagues.
Taylor Ward | C LAA | 15% Owned
Yeah, I’m breaking the column’s cap of 10% ownership for this public service announcement. ALERT! ALERT! CATCHER-ELIGIBLE HITTER WHO DOESN’T CATCH! Ward was just recalled by the Angels with the intention of giving Ward the next ride on their third base carousel.
That’s right, despite playing exclusively at catcher until this season, Ward will defend the hot corner in Los Angeles. This year, the team decided to move him from behind the plate and make him a full-time third baseman. That means a fantasy owner’s dream, the catcher-eligible non-catcher.
Heading into the season, Ward was ranked as the team’s 20th best prospect. Longenhagen had very few positives to share, but this was the key quote:
His peripherals were strong in 2017 — he walked a lot and barely struck out — which is especially interesting at catcher, and the physical demands of catching often take a toll on a prospect’s offensive output, but scouts unanimously pan Ward’s offensive tools.
And wouldn’t you know it, Ward no longer has to deal with the physical demands of catching, and boom, he breaks out offensively. And boy was this a breakout. While he continued to walk at a low teens clip and keep his SwStk% impressively low, his line drive rate and BABIP surged, his power suddenly appeared and HR/FB rate doubled, and he even became a speedster!
Overall, he posted a wOBA of at least .430 at his two stints, at Double-A and then Triple-A, batted at least .345, hit 14 homers, and stole 18 bases. The speed might be the biggest shocker, as he hadn’t even attempted a steal since 2015.
A catcher with some pop and speed? Sounds like J.T. Realmuto! The team still has Kaleb Cowart and Jefry Marte on their roster, so Ward’s playing time doesn’t appear as secure as Mullins’. But assuming he qualifies at catcher in your league, you gotta pick him up, even in mixed leagues.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Ward or danny jansen?
Yes, I was wondering the same thing. In a dynasty league, does Jansen get the edge?
Jansen solely because Ward won’t be eligible at catcher after this season. Also love Jansen’s plate discipline.
For this year I’d go with Ward given the handful of steals
And positional flexibility, at least this year
How’s Ward compare to Chirinos, Zunino, or Garver?
Think I’d prefer Ward to all since they have major batting avg issues, and Ward brings the potential for steals.
Ward is running BABIPs of .409 and .450 at his 2 minor league stops this year. Also, his AAA stop was in the PCL at Salt Lake City, elevation 4226′. Over half the ballparks in the PCL Pacific divisions are either over 3000′ elevation or the blast furnace of Fresno. Sacramento and Tacoma are the only 2 stops that aren’t hitting paradises and even Sacramento is kind of toasty during the summer.
Ward has a .430 wOBA at SLC. Other guys putting up huge numbers for SLC include :
– Jabari Blash (.481), who has been a perennial prospect blasting PCL pitching but not hitting in the majors for 3 years now
– David Fletcher (.413), but .287 in 186 PA in the majors this year
– Jose Fernandez (.398) a 30 yo whose 1st professional ball came last year
– Chris Carter (.388), yes, that Chris Carter
Now, the guy has put up good numbers and even if you discount them for altitude and the whole league, they’re still solid which is obviously a lot better than putting up bad numbers. However, the BABIP scares me. . . .
I picked up both in my dynasty. Who should I start with Sanchez out: Romine or Ward?
Ward by a mile
In a deep dynasty would you rather have Ward or the Twins Wander Javier?
Not a prospect guy, so won’t have any of my own thoughts on Javier. But, he missed the entire season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum. He’s only 19 now and has only played at the Rookie league. So, literally anything could happen and no one has a clue now. Are you playing for this/next year, or 5 years? Remember Ward will lose his catcher eligibility.
Thanks for your thoughtful response!