Speculating on Saves: Buying Trevor May & Juan Minaya

Closer turnover has been crazy over the last month or so. Based on the latest Bullpen Report, only 10 current de facto closers were in that same role heading into the season. That’s nuts! It’s also precisely why I don’t pay market prices for the top tier of closers on draft day. It’s not because I don’t think they will earn that value (guys like Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman certainly have), but because there are so many saves available for free during the season, I prefer to spend my auction budget elsewhere.

After recent trades of their incumbents, the Twins and White Sox have not formally announced a replacement closer. Between the two teams, the Bullpen Report identifies five pitchers total that would form committees. That’s essentially saying we have no idea. So let’s speculate!

Trevor May

When the Twins signed Addison Reed in mid-January, most of us figured he was a better investment than Fernando Rodney in fantasy drafts. Sadly, he has posted a disappointing 4.74 ERA and hasn’t saved a game all season. Even with Rodney gone, Reed doesn’t appear to be the best, or even likely, choice. His strikeout rate has plummeted, his velocity is down, and he just returned from missing a couple of weeks to an elbow injury.

Trevor Hildenberger? He’s been crushed by the home run ball, allowing a 19.2% HR/FB rate, which has raised his ERA to match Reed’s. He has also allowed multiple runs in four straight outings. Ya really think he’s going to get the next save chance?

So that leaves us with May. Once a strong starting pitcher prospect, he pitched out of the bullpen exclusively in 2016 before going under the knife and undergoing Tommy John surgery, which knocked him out for the 2017 season. He’s back now and in his 4.2 innings, has already shown the best velocity of his Major League career. That’s big because the early news during his rehab was that he was showing diminished velocity. Backed by double digit SwStk% marks from all his pitches, May’s strikeout rate spiked above 30% for the first time in 2016, and he posted strong skills, hidden by some weak luck metric numbers. A 2.90 SIERA hints at his potential as a reliever.

While it’s always risky to bet on a pitcher first returning from TJ surgery, there is upside for a pretty good relief pitcher, and, closer. The Twins alternatives aren’t very appealing, so perhaps a couple of more games to prove his health and effectiveness is all it might take before May finds himself recording saves.

Juan Minaya

Yeesh, the White Sox have one of the scariest bullpens in baseball now with Joakim Soria gone and Nate Jones on the DL as usual. Our Bullpen Report guesses that former starter Hector Santiago, along with the right-handed Thyago Vieira, are the favorites for saves, while Roster Resource slots Santiago in as the long reliever, with Jeanmar Gomez (yes, the same one that somehow managed to save 37 games in 2016, despite a 4.85 ERA), and lefty Luis Avilan joining Vieira in the committee. I feel for Sox fans.

Let’s just rule out Gomez, shall we? He’s terrible and I don’t need to explain all the reasons why. Avilan is a pretty good lefty, but hasn’t been able to get out righties this year, allowing a .352 wOBA. Santiago’s ability to go multiple innings means he’s unlikely to be pigeonholed into a one-inning role. It’s a sad situation when a rookie with a 7.50 ERA is supposedly in the saves mix. Yes, Vieira is considered an option with such a mark, after posting a 5.05 ERA over 41 minor league innings this year. He’s going to close games?! Southpaw Jace Fry was supposed to be the favorite, but he has allowed five runs in his last five innings, is a rookie, and has been far more effective against lefties.

Phew, who is the last man standing? Minaya! He actually saved nine games for the team last year, but ultimately posted a 4.53 ERA, despite a strong strikeout rate. This year, he has maintained that strikeout rate, but his control has escaped him, as he has walked 21 batters in 25.1 innings already. Obviously, if he doesn’t regain his control, he’s not going to close, or at least not successfully. But he’s never shown anything like these control problems in the past, and his walk rate was normal at Triple-A this year. So perhaps it’s just a temporary blip.

He’s sporting a career best 60.3% ground ball rate, throwing harder than ever in the Majors, and both his changeup and slider have been excellent at inducing whiffs. Simply because he’s a righty, closed for the team last year, seemingly has the prototypical closer stuff, I think he makes for the best speculation on the Sox. I’d bet on him earning the most saves for the team from here on out.

Post White Sox Game Edit: Yikes, I totally jinxed him.