As has now been an annual tradition, I published a series of Pod Projections before the season begin, and then compared my projection to the rest of the systems available on the player pages. We’ll start the reviews with Whit Merrifield, who came out of nowhere in 2017 to become a fantasy stud, swatting 19 homers and stealing 34 bases. Let’s see how he performed compared to my projection and the computer systems.
As I have at the end of the first half since 2013, I grouped two sets of pitchers together and aggregated their results through the half based on the degree of SIERA outperformance and underperformance. I then asked you which group of pitchers would perform better from an ERA perspective over the second half, and which range each group’s ERA would fall into. This year’s poll and voting results are here.
At the end of spring training, I identified and discussed 10 pitchers whose spring training strikeout rate was significantly higher than my Pod Projection K%. Though the vast majority of spring training stats are completely meaningless, I did find many years ago that strikeout and walk rates do hold some predictive value. So let’s see how these 10 pitchers ended up performing.
Today I continue with my recaps, this time reviewing my early January post touting six home run sleepers. I compiled the list by initially sorting the 2017 Brls/BBE leaderboard in descending order and identifying sleepery hitters. Let’s see how they performed.
Yesterday, I reviewed my 2018 bold hitter league leaders. Today we move to the pitching side. These are easier to get right than hitters simply due to greater influence of luck on the results.
Gosh, if you thought getting bold predictions right was a tough task, the bold league leaders is even more difficult. Not only do I have to choose a player who would be considered bold to lead the league in the category in question, but the pick has to at least be realistic enough so there’s an actual non-zero chance of the prediction coming true. Let’s see how I did this season on the hitting side. Here are my original thoughts.
I can’t believe it’s already that time of year again, playoffs and recap season! As usual, I have a ton of reviews to share in the coming months. We’ll start things off with my 2018 bold predictions. I believe four correct is my best showing. Let’s try to beat that. You may also remember that I have a disturbing knack for making bold predictions about players who end up missing a significant portion of the season to injury. Let’s hope that trend has ended.
After posting a 3.12 ERA over 15 starts last season in his MLB debut, which by the way was fully supported by exciting skills, Luis Castillo was rightfully a favorite target for many fantasy owners heading into the year. Unfortunately, his follow-up has been a big disappointment. The 25-year-old has posted a 4.66 ERA, while both his strikeout and ground ball rates have tumbled. He has also been unable to curb his severe gopheritis. When we talk about pitcher inconsistency, Castillo has been the epitome. If we were to ride on a baseball themed roller coaster, it would most certainly be named after him.
This week’s edition represents a reiteration of two previous recommendations. It baffles me both are owned in less than 10% of CBS leagues.
Yesterday, I highlighted five lesser owned hitters who have running wild over the last two weeks. Today, I’ll discuss four hitters who have posted absurd HR/FB rates over the last 14 days. These players are all widely available and could knock another couple out, which may be the difference between a point or two in the homer category, and perhaps RBI.
