2018 Pod Projections: Shohei Ohtani — A Review

Shohei Ohtani was one of the most hyped rookies in recent memory. Fueling the excitement was the fact that he came over from Japan and he was a two-way player, both pitching and hitting, and doing each well…very well. Obviously, attempting to translate performance from a foreign league to MLB is difficult, and then you have to actually forecast the upcoming season, which is far tougher than a regular run of the mill projection for an MLB veteran.

Our first look at Ohtani this year came during spring training. Unfortunately, that didn’t go so well, leaving a poor first impression and resulting in his cost in fantasy leagues plummeting. Though he recorded just 2.2 innings, he allowed an absurd eight earned runs and three homers. Not what we expected from “the next Babe Ruth”. The tiny sample size had no effect on my projection though, so let’s see how he performed compared to my Pod Projection

Games Started | IP: Projected 24 | 150 | Actual 10 | 51.2

Sadly, we only got to see Ohtani for 10 starts until his elbow gave way and he ultimately had to go under the knife to endure Tommy John surgery. Obviously, everyone was off on the games started and innings pitched projection, but perhaps the most surprising was his weak IP/GS. My projection implied 6.3 innings per start, but he actually averaged just 5.1 innings. Usually, dramatically fewer innings per start is the result of a higher ERA than expected and/or a high walk rate, elongating a pitcher’s innings. Ohtani’s ERA wasn’t inflated, though his walk rate was well worse than average just about 10%. That, plus the likelihood that the Angels wanted to protect their investment, was the cause of such a disappointing IP/GS mark.

K%: Projected 27.7% | Actual 29.9%

Ohtani’s indexed strikeout percentage in Japan hinted at what he ended up posting this season, but any projection system is going to remain a bit conservative with so many unknowns. Ohtani was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, as his 15.2% SwStk% ranked fourth among all starters who threw at least 50 innings. He befuddled batters with a four pitch mix that included an excellent four-seamer, strong slider, elite splitter, and curveball that generated fantastic results somehow, despite not inducing whiffs or grounders. Oh, and that four-seamer average 97.4 mph, making out over 100 mph. Looks like his pitching lived up to the hype after all!

BB%: Projected 9.4% | Actual 10.4%

We knew that Ohtani didn’t possess pinpoint control, but he had posted a better than average walk rate in 2015 and 2016, before his walk rate ballooned over a small sample in 2017. The driver of the high walk rate is rather obvious — he simply didn’t throw enough strikes. His Str% was a couple of points below the league, though he did manage to avoid 3-0 counts more often than the average. It’s interesting that he threw a low rate of strikes, yet didn’t get into a ton of 3-0 counts. I guess his sequencing was good. But, who knows how his control will be when he eventually returns from TJ surgery.

GB%/LD%/FB%: Projected 48% / 20% / 32% | Actual 39.2% / 24% / 36.8%

Well this was surprising. Ohtani consistently posted ground ball rates in the mid-to-high 50% range in Japan, equating to a 50% average for the two Japanese league seasons I had data for. But his GB% plummeted here. One of the reason is because his curve ball was a major fly ball pitch, as was his slider. You don’t normally expect those two pitches to be thrown high in the zone. Also surprising is that despite outwardly awesome stuff, batters had no trouble barreling the ball up, as his 24% line drive rate attests. Overall, this was nowhere near the batted ball distribution I expected, which is just a reminder of how difficult it is to forecast these types of rates coming from a foreign league.

HR/FB%: Projected 12.5% | Actual 13%

Unsurprisingly, Ohtani posted better than average HR/FB rates in Japan, which I regressed upward out of conservatism, but clearly not enough. I was close though. A look at his FB Hard% and Pull% yields higher than average marks, which is most certainly driving the higher than league average HR/FB rate, but offset some by his power-friendly home park.

BABIP: Projected .290 | Actual .269

Man, BABIP is hard enough to project for an established veteran, it was essentially a dart toss for a rookie from a foreign league! I only had two seasons of BABIP data, from 2014 and 2015, which averaged out to .282. I figured the Angels infield defense would be elite, but Ohtani’s better than average ground ball rate would offset some of that. Instead, he was a fly ball pitcher who induced pop-ups, which pushed down his BABIP. And, the Angels were indeed an excellent defense, posting the fourth highest UZR/150 in baseball. Amazingly, Ohtani managed to post a below average BABIP, despite an inflated LD%.

Below is a comparison of the projection systems, as well as Ohtani’s actual 2018 numbers:

I didn’t bother to highlight which system was closer on the counting stats, as his injury meant we were all way off.

Pretty funny that I was easily the closest on Ohtani’s ERA, almost nailing it, but wasn’t closest anywhere else. Surprisingly, it was Steamer that was most aggressive on Ohtani’s strikeout rate and lowest on his BABIP.

Actually, it’s crazy how relatively close all the ERA and WHIP projections are given the lack of performance data we had. You would expect the projections to be all over the map. And hey, the Fans were the most pessimistic about both his ERA and K/9! How often do we see that?!

It’s too bad we’re going to likely have to wait until 2020 to see Ohtani pitch again. It’s anyone’s guess how he’s going to perform and whether the surgery permanently robs him of velocity.