While Statcast’s xwOBA is not a predictive metric, it’s still useful in validating historical results. Think of xwOBA in the same way you would think of pitcher SIERA — while SIERA isn’t meant to predict future ERA, it does a better job of it than ERA itself, making it backward-looking. So let’s dive into the hitters whose xwOBA marks are significantly higher than their actual wOBA marks.
Since 2013, I have polled you dashingly attractive readers on which group of pitchers you think will post the better aggregate ERA post all-star break. The two groups were determined based on ERA-SIERA disparity, pitting the overperformers versus the underperformers during the pre-all-star break period.
Towards the end of May, I identified and discussed eight hitters who had hit a surprising number of homers already. As we head into the all-star break, it’s time to update the names. However, I’m going to skip over the guys I have already discussed, whether in my original article, or in posts on individual players since. So let’s take a look at six more guys who have homers far more often than we all expected a little more than halfway through the season.
Welcome to a special non-closing reliever edition of the deep league waiver wire! Pay attention AL-Only leaguers, these names are for you.
While we typically shout “SMALL SAMPLE SIZE” when attempting to evaluate players without buckets full of data, pitchers do offer us a wonderful number that stabilizes super quickly — velocity. Big changes here could result in a significant change in skill, ultimately affecting ERA. So let’s compare velocity over the last 14 days, which would typically include two to three starts, to velocity averaged prior. I’ll highlight the biggest gainers and losers.
Last Thursday, I identified and discussed nine starting pitchers that had improved their SIERA marks the most over the last 30 days. Today, let’s check in on the starter who have seen their SIERA marks spike over the last 30 days. Sell while you can or hold on for the return to early season form?
Pitcher skill levels change far more quickly than hitter skill levels, thanks to the many ways they could improve, or decline. A pitcher could add a new pitch that immediately becomes effective, or similarly, stop throwing a pitch that had been ineffective. A pitcher could also gain or lose velocity. A pitcher could also reposition himself on the pitching rubber or even decide to pitch from the stretch or the windup regardless of situation. So let’s check in on the most dramatic SIERA improvers over the last 30 days compared with the period leading up to that date range.
Welcome to an exciting all-Giants edition of the deep league waiver wire! It’s tempting to just completely ignore Giants hitters, but that just makes the guys worthy of your attention cheaper!
The catcher position was already weak heading into the season. Then Salvador Perez got hurt and was lost for the year, further eroding the projected total value earned from the group. As we near July and the all-star break, I continue to refer to the position as a wasteland. I should stop it now, given the risk of sounding like a total fool.
Who wants to own a 32-year-old first baseman sporting a disgusting .256 wOBA and playing on a sub-.500 team likely to look toward the future soon? I do, that’s who. Yonder Alonso has been awful during the first half the season and with Daniel Palka crushing it at Triple-A, it might not be much longer before the White Sox give the latter another chance, pushing the former to the bench or packing. And while I acknowledge that there has been some skill degradation here and there for Alonso, his excruciatingly slow start appears to be driven more by terrible fortune. Let’s dive in.
