The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

I recently joined a men’s 30+ hardball league because, apparently, I love the bitter taste of failure. I felt like a superstar when I left my local sporting goods store with a scroll of a receipt and some fresh gear that would certainly make me, at least, look like I know what I’m doing out there. In my first at-bat, I struck out swinging, missing on a changeup by a country mile. This pitcher knew what he was doing.

He saw me whiff on a heater, threw it again and again as I timed it up and fouled off a few, changed pace and sent me back to the dugout, head down and red-faced. It was hard to time up. I’m serious. Now, replace that 75 MPH heater coming from a former D3 college pitcher with a 102 MPH heater coming from a man they call “The Mountain” and I would have certainly been found in the fetal position on the right side of the batter’s box.

Professional hitters, however, are used to this kind of thing. But, even they struggle. It’s all relative I suppose. Let’s take a look at a hitter, White Sox rookie Oscar Colás, trying to time up Félix Bautista on April 16th:

Colás quickly fouled one off and got the bat on the ball. But, prior to that, he took a ball up and in. The foul ball was his second look at Bautista’s four-seamer and waiting for pitch number three, he sat at 1-1. At this point, Colás saw two fastballs and it couldn’t have hurt to see one more. He took another ball, again the four-seamer, and got ahead in the count, 2-1. Three four-seamers down, Colás must have been feeling like he had Bautista timed. But, wait, doesn’t Bautista have a devastating splitter? That’s what the scouting reports said at least. Maybe that’s coming next? Nope:

Another heater and Colas barely got a hold it, but he was given another opportunity to time it up. Now at 2-2, he was thrown yet another heater and put it in play:

So when oh when does Bautista throw his splitter? At this point in the inning, Bautista threw six straight four-seam fastballs. He had his splitter ready and waiting, but the next batter, Seby Zavala didn’t get to see one. Instead, he was thrown one four-seamer and whiffed, then another that he put in play for a base hit. That means the four-seam count now came to eight in a row and hitters were catching on.

Early this season Orioles broadcasters have continually mentioned that Bautista, who got a late start to spring training due to trouble with his knee and shoulder, just hasn’t yet found the splitter. Stuff+ has given us a new way to look at whether a pitcher has or does not have a certain pitch. Let’s take a look at Bautista’s game-by-game splitter Stuff+ prior to this April 16th outing:

He may not have fully had it in his first few appearances, but the pitch was trending up. For context, the league average Stuff+ on a splitter among all relievers in 2023 currently sits at 103. There were only two games in this early time span where Bautista was below that mark. Prior to this April 16th appearance “The Mountain” started to find his groove with back-to-back appearances above 140. Coming off of two appearances with the splitter working and he hadn’t yet thrown it to a single batter in this game in question. But, just like a brilliant closer does, he waited for the perfect time.

Lenyn Sosa came to bat with two outs, having seen his teammates time up fastballs up in the zone, ready to attack. After a first pitch called strike on a four-seamer, perhaps Sosa was lulled into thinking it was just a fastball kind of day for Bautista. Wrong. The next pitch thrown to Sosa was a totally spiked splitter. In all honesty, it was spiked so hard that Sosa may have not have even identified it as a splitter. The next one, however, was gold:

Bautista then capped off his performance with a swinging strike on an unhittable splitter:

Bringing in the rest of Bautista’s appearances this season (last night’s (5/4) data hasn’t come in yet), we can see that he reached a peak in this April 16th game and in his next appearance on the 18th, but then came back down to earth a bit. What happened on the 29th? Four splitters that looked good, but certainly don’t look 322 Stuff+ good:

Splitter 1
Splitter 2
Splitter 3
Splitter 4

Splitter #1 was a non-competitive pitch. Splitter #2 earned a swinging strike, but it was left up in the zone and seems like it could have been sent for a ride. Splitter #3 was a big miss. Splitter #4 was a really good pitch and an even better take. All together it is unclear why these four splitters read at obscure/outlier levels, but perhaps there’s something going wrong in the data. Regardless, and what does seem clear, is there’s some potential for monitoring individual, put away pitches prior to matchups for both fantasy and real-life players. There’s a lot here that needs to be worked out, mostly creating a rolling average chart, quality checking game-by-game Stuff+ measures, and monitoring game-by-game Stuff+ to see if there’s any connection, not from a performance standpoint, but from a usage standpoint. I would like to answer the question, does an individual pitch’s Stuff+ measurement in the game prior, lead to increased usage in the following? For now, Bautista seems to be finding a devastating pitch and we’ll have to see how he utilizes it going forward.

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

Using baseball-savant data and some Python code, I have written a script that will loop through a pitcher’s three most recent appearances and flag any pitcher who has shown an increase in their fastball velocity. In raw form, it looks something like this:

Looking at the table above we can see that each of these three pitchers increased their fastball (“FF” in savant data) consistently over their last three appearances. Don’t believe me? You can check my work with Savant visualizations:

While I wrote more specifically about the merits of paying close attention to game-by-game fastball increases, quoting many other studies and great pieces along the way, I won’t be writing about it again here. Instead, I’ll simply show you a list of the starters and relievers who have increased game-by-game average velocity on their four-seamers and hope that you can take it from there. Sure, you could scroll through stacks of player pages to find players who have increased velocity until the cows come home, or you could write some code that will detect those increases and flag those players for you. I chose the second way. If you find it useful, I’ll do it on a more regular basis. That’s it. This post is more about the data than the words:

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday night the first round of the “Beltway Series” kicked off in D.C. and O’s fans showed out. It was a fun night all around. “Fired Up Guy” battled beltway traffic and came down to D.C. to give his support:

Heck, Yennier Cano even road the bullpen cart:

But the real fun was watching Dean Kremer work. Let me take you into a tense moment. It begins with no outs in the bottom of the third inning. CJ Abrams knocked a leadoff single into center field and waited patiently on first base. Next, Victor Robles reached, not first, but second on what was ruled an error by Gunnar Henderson. Take a look:

Read the rest of this entry »

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature, primarily written by either Chad Young or Lucas Kelly, with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Ross Stripling, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 28.52%

With a report that Stripling will be working out of the bullpen for the foreseeable future, he loses much of his fantasy value. In his one start of the year, he gave up four earned runs and three home runs. His pitch mix is a little all over the place as he appears to be working on a splitter and is sticking with the sinker he started throwing last year. His velocity appears to be unchanged from last year except that he is throwing his changeup significantly harder. Whatever the issue is, Stripling needs to work through it as a reliever and will need some time to get right before he becomes fantasy relevant again.

Farhan Zaidi: Sean Manaea has ‘earned’ rotation spot, Stripling to bullpen https://t.co/rmHBxByqWL

— Mercury News (@mercnews) April 14, 2023

Austin Meadows, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 28.2%

The left-handed DH/OF is struggling with anxiety and was placed on the 10-Day IL at the end of last week. He had a big season debut going three for four with a double but then fell into a mini-slump. Hopefully Meadows will be able to get back out on the field soon. He’s projected to slug in the .430 to .460 range, well above the 2022 MLB average of .395.

Taylor Rogers, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 22.44%

Rogers is expected to play a setup role to Camilo Doval (Roster Resource) and maybe some fantasy managers were hoping it would be the reverse. Rogers had a rough go to start the season in San Francisco. He’s given up an earned run in four out of his six appearances and in one of those appearances he gave up four earned runs. He also gave up a home run in each of his first two appearances. It could just be a rough start to the year and it could be the beginning of some skills decline but it’s too early to tell.

Seth Brown, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 20.83%

Another injury has managers cutting Brown as he is expected to be out in the four to six-week range with a Grade 2 left oblique strain. Fantasy managers know just how tricky oblique strains can be and are reacting accordingly.

Trevor May, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 19.55%

With an ERA creeping above 8.00, May has had one too many poor outings for fantasy managers to deal with. In one appearance against the Rays, May gave up four walks and two earned runs before recording a full inning pitched. The 33-year-old right-handed reliever has always maintained a higher-than-average K/9, but his BB% has bounced above and below league average in his career:

Click to enlarge

With both his fastball and sinker declining in velocity this season, May is an easy cut in fantasy leagues.

Cold Performers

Kolten Wong: 41 AB,  .098/.208/.098, -0.26 P/G

In Jeff Zimmerman’s latest lineup analysis, he wrote:

“Kolten Wong (vs RHP) and Sam Haggerty (vs LHP) are in a second base platoon.”

Wong has gone 0-3 against lefties and 5-48 against righties. I don’t think anyone drafted Wong for his batting average as no projection system has him over .250, but many were probably drawn to the 10+ stolen base projections and he has yet to swipe a bag. But, even with a sad batting line, his BB% is above average:

Hopefully, Wong will continue to help in the OBP department and starts to run again, but if he doesn’t I would consider him an easy cut.

Willson Contreras: 46 AB, .174/.255/.196, 1.33 P/G

In his new home in St. Louis Contreras is struggling, but he is a streaky hitter. He opened the season with a four-game hitting streak, followed that up with a two for 34, then went 2-5 in yesterday’s game. There hasn’t been much change in his swing profile, he has hit a ball 115.1 MPH, very close to his career max, and all of his x-stats are higher than his actuals:

AVG: .200 xAVG: .229

SLG: .240 xSLG: .345

wOBA: .249 xwOBA: .292

Just wait it out, Contreras will very likely be the hitter projection systems expect him to be.

Michael Kopech: 15.2 IP, -0.88 P/IP

Kopech’s game logs are scary looking. In three outings this season he has given up 11 earned runs, seven home runs, and 1o walks. He needs to, at the very least, be benched until something is figured out. Each one of his pitches, except the curveball, which he utilizes the least, has an xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA higher than the actuals. His curveball, slider, and fastball have all given up home runs this season and his fastball has lost nearly 2 inches of vertical movement (BaseballSavant, vs. AVG measurement). Is it possible that Kopech is not a starter? Whatever the case may be, he is simply not worth starting in any fantasy format.

Tyler Anderson: 14.2 IP, -0.64 P/IP

Are people already saying, “Told ya so”, about Anderson coming back down to reality from his excellent 2022 season? I hope not. In his first outing, he only gave up four hits but tacked on two walks. He seems to be struggling with his command to open up the season as his BB% is higher than it’s ever been and his K% is lower than it’s ever been:

He’s not getting hit harder, his velocity isn’t down enough to raise any red flags and his BABIP is currently .318. I predict a rebound after a few more outings. How about his stuff? Here’s a comparison between this season and last season:

I’m not exactly sure if 14.2 innings are enough to get a good Stuff+ metric (I still have some learning to do in that department) but if it is enough to explain how Anderson’s pitches are performing, they are unchanged from last season as of now.

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »