Streaky Freakies vs. Steady Eddies: Does Volatility Matter?

Fret not, dear reader. This is not that kind of article.

Fret not, dear reader. This is not that kind of article.

Have you ever looked at art that changed based on the direction you’re viewing it? Or maybe stared at that famous drawing of a duck for 10 minutes, only to have it morph permanently into a rabbit? The notion that one thing can be two or more does a number on our brains sometimes.

Our esteemed RotoGraphs editor recently passed along a question to the team that came to him from a reader:
“If a player runs a high k-rate upon debut for a significant amount of time, how likely is it that they’ll ever be a viable fantasy hitter?”

“You don’t know how to play first base value assets, Scott?”
“That’s right.”
“It’s not that hard, Scott. Tell him, Wash.”
“It’s incredibly hard.”
“Hey, anything worth doing is. And we’re going to teach you.”
By now, 25 years hence, Moneyball concepts are likely old hat to your average RotoGraphs reader. With the suite of technical tools available to the modern fan, it can be easy to forget just how powerful those insights can still be. Read the rest of this entry »