In ottoneu, most owners will implement some form of platoon among their outfield spots. While platooning in fantasy baseball is hardly sage advice, ottoneu is a little bit different in that the format specifically lends itself to platooning more than other fantasy platforms. First, you have 40 roster spots. Second, you have 5 OF spots and a 810 game cap at the position. Third, it’s a point format. Because of the 810 cap, you almost need to start a full slate of OF in nearly every game you can, as scheduled off days can make it very difficult to meet the 162 game cap at each of the 5 outfield spots. On top of that, the roster, because of it’s size, allows you to stash prospects or players you plan to use only in specific situations. However, you want to make sure you don’t depend on them too heavily, as scheduling can easily leave you below the cap.

Granted, if you’ve played ottoneu for any amount of time, you already know this. You know that platooning can be an extremely effective strategy. You probably know that strong side platoons are really what you want to acquire (more plate appearances) and you probably have a good idea of a couple names who fit this bill. You are looking for hitters who are likely to get 400+ plate appearance in their platoon role, so as not to be left missing starts with regularity. Today, I want to look at 3 (it’s a new year and I’m feeling generous) players who fit the bill of effective RHP mashers, but at varying costs.

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In Ottoneu, the top tier of 1B usually cost a pretty penny. Whether it’s Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, or Anthony Rizzo – the clear top tier will likely cost $40 or more in FGpt leagues for 2017, and I would not be surprised if any of these 4 clear $50. Maybe you really like Freddie Freeman and want to add him to the mix. It’s certainly defensible given Freeman’s ridiculous 2016. However, after that group things get a little more congested. Edwin Encarnacion is another name who will likely come up. He has helped round out the upper echelon of 1B for the past few seasons, but projections have him taking a slight step back. Either way, you will probably be left pushing $30 for the likes of E5 come march. So what do you do when you are left on the outside looking in a as the top 1B come off the board? Today I want to look at two options who can help if roster construction leaves you pinching pennies at 1B.

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On Wednesday, we took a look at two 2B who appear very similar while possessing vastly different average salaries throughout the Ottoneu universe. While Kipnis and Forysthe appeared nearly identical in many ways, today I want to look at two outfielders who are similar in several regards, but not nearly as identical as Wednesday’s test-cases.

One of the major differences between today’s Mr. Name Brand and Mr. Generic is their respective ages. Why is this important? If you’ve played Ottoneu (or any dynasty slanted format) for any amount of time, you will likely find that the majority of owners are biased against the aged. While age is typically viewed as a premium, this can be detrimental when pricing comes into play as owners will chase after the shiny, younger, new toys. Given the 10 year age difference between our name brand and generic option, it is likely that these two will never be considered in the same tier.

The $38 price difference across Ottoneu leagues also confirms this – and while age is not the only reason for this price gap – it should help us determine that Mr. Name Brand is priced as if he is one of the most elite players in Ottoneu. While both are power hitters, our name brand option displays otherworldly power, but also strikes 13% more than our generic option. He also had 40 points of BABIP on Mr. Generic. Let’s dig a little deeper.

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Many times in fantasy baseball owners fall victim to name brands. While having familiarity with a player is necessary, often we don’t dive deeply enough into a player’s performance to get a clear idea of how much more valuable he is than his peers. Due to this, we will often pay more for something than we otherwise would if we were truly aware of it’s value. Today, I want to talk about the 2B position and one name brand that will likely cost much more in your annual Ottoneu auctions, or in trades, than a much cheaper generic option.

Any guesses? While the two players are strikingly similar, Mr. Name Brand certainly played more, with about 120 extra PAs over our and more power than Mr. Generic. However, the price difference is immediately evident. Across Ottoneu leagues, owners paid $16 more for our name brand option for roughly equal production across the board. The K/BB numbers are nearly identical, with both producing good power and higher than average BABIP results. While Mr. Name Brand bested Mr. Generic by 11 points of wOBA, xOBA (a statcast based  equivalent for  wOBA based on expected batted ball results) actually had our generic option with a 12 point advantage.  Final answers? Going once… twice? Read the rest of this entry »

When you play Ottoneu, and offseason trading finally begins, it’s easy to feel the rush. While Ottoneu Arbitration provides a brief respite, once the calendar turns to November 15, the gloves are off. Trades happen like wildfire and debates about player values appear to be never ending. The surplus calculator is updated and those new to Ottoneu are left pondering their roster. Point being, hold on to your hat. The offseason moves quick. However, in an effort to gain perspective, I would like to throw up a caution sign and encourage patience among my fellow “Ottoneurs” (Some day I’ll finally find a way to refer to y’all).

“Patience!?” you say. “I want to trade!” you plead… But yes, patience is what is needed. The last thing you want to do is make a terrible trade because you were in a rush to make any trade. Today, I want to look into several ways patience can benefit your Ottoneu Team. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Wednesday, I took some time to discuss why you should play Ottoneu. I think Ottoneu is a great fantasy format for anyone who has a sabermetric leaning. Those who play are hyper-involved sports fans who crave a deeper fantasy experience than a casual work league. However, I can totally understand why there are times where the rules/gameplay could seem daunting to a newcomer. This does not need to be the case. I want to help bridge that gap. Today, I wanted to take some time to build off of this and discuss how you learn to play the format. Since the scope of Ottoneu is vast, this will likely divulge into several posts which I will try to group similarly, but today I wanted to start with what drives Ottoneu, it’s communities of owners. I wanted to know what their opinion was on adjusting to the format. Since the scope of Ottoneu is vast, I have tried to group responses similarly – and thanks to everyone who helped me with this. You’re responses are valuable.

First, a snapshot of the Ottoneu Season (courtesy of ottoneu owner RJ Weise).

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With the baseball season down to it’s final game, I find myself in a state of joyous mourning. In the case that you support the Cubs or Indians, your emotions are likely mixed between anxiety and excitement. Regardless, 2016 has been a great year for baseball – and we have been very lucky to finish the season with quite possibly the best ending we could hope for. World Series games 7. The fact that both teams playing for the title have not won in 60+ years ago is icing on the cake. However, as someone without fandom to fall back on, I am left with the question of “what do I do tomorrow?” Baseball will be over, and the prospect of counting down the days till April 2, 2017 is sobering – even amidst the excitement tonight is sure to bring. Luckily, I have Ottoneu.

Maybe you’re asking yourself, “What is Ottoneu?” If you’ve never heard of it, I’d encourage you to check it out. While there are many reasons one could choose to play Ottoneu, I wanted to pose the question of “Why play?” to it’s communities of fans. If you have not played Ottoneu, why should you start? What is the draw? Here are some responses. Most of these fit into one of two main buckets. Increased involvement and in depth game-play. Read the rest of this entry »

The Ottoneu respite is almost over! Arbitration starts tomorrow! While I’m sure most of us needed no vacation, someone who plays in 10 leagues probably needed a break. Anyways, the action is about to continue. Arbitration is one of my favorite times of the Ottoneu calendar but, for anyone who has not experience it before, can seem daunting. Today I wanted to run down my thoughts on arbitration as a whole. There have been several arbitration primers here on Rotographs in the past. Chad and Brad have each touched on it a couple of times and have talked about the tactics they like to employ in arbitration, but seeing as I’m not Chad or Brad, my tactics may be slightly different.

First lets start with the basics. Each of the 12 teams in your league will get $25 dollars to allocate to the other 11 teams. Each team may allocate a max of $3 and a minimum of $1 to the other teams. Allocations are blind (you can’t directly see who is allocating to you). Last year, nearly 450 players were allocated to in arbitration. That’s a lot. Certainly the heavy hitters were your big names going into 2016 offseason the offseason Correa, Bryan, Arrieta, etc. but there are always lesser known guys who get a dollar or two. On top of this, post arbitration leagues typically have between 120 and 140 surplus assets. With this in mind, lets talk through two schools of thought that I see applying to the vast majority of teams as they enter arbitration. I will be applying both of these over the next week.

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In March, I covered my Bold Predictions for 2016. Today we’ll keep score. No half points or gimmicks. Most of these will be incorrect. If most of them weren’t incorrect I’d probably be doing this wrong – wouldn’t be bold enough. Like at the time, the purpose was hopefully to give you some insight into why I liked specific players for 2016. Hopefully that was helpful.

1. Domingo Santana will be a top 15 OF.

In March, I pegged Santana as a guy I liked a lot, betting on him to finish in the top-15 OF in Ottoneu FGpts leagues. At the time, I thought he could outperform the likes of Nelson Cruz, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte, and Adam Jones… Oh boy… None of those guys were good this year, right (wincing)?

Then Domingo hurt is elbow. So, this one looks bad in retrospect. I actually liked his production this year at a .343 wOBA and will probably buy again this next year (given the expected price drop). That being said, if you invested heavily, you were probably disappointed – even though he was a capable 4th/5th OF when on the field.

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2. John Jaso will be a viable 2nd OF

At the time I cited playing time. Claining that I liked Jaso to play more games than he had over the past few season. I was correct on that front. Jaso played 132 games in 2016. However, he only started 100 of those 132 and his playing time was cut by year end. Looking forward, the outlook is bleak for Jaso. He didn’t retain 1B eligibility and the team also has Josh Bell. So it looks like playing time will be an issue going forward. Jaso did provide a .335 wOBA for 2016 – that’s still a useful role player – but a ways off of a number 2 OF I thought he could be at the start of the year. Add him to the dollar bin of guys for next year.

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3. Vince Velasquez will outproduce Raisel Iglesias

It seemed like Iglesias was everyone’s favorite sleeper to start the year. Then he got hurt. Then shifted to the bullpen.Velasquez ended up outscoring him by about 80 points on the year (Iglesias got some RP innings that boosted his total) and produced $5 more of value.  If you invested in Velasquez – esspecially if you sold on his early season success – you probably turned a nice profit for yourself. The key for Ottoneu is if can cut down on the HR (14.9% HR/FB) and last longer into outings (on average he lasted just over 5 IP per outing).

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4. Edwin Encarnacion will be a top-4 1B

Encarnacion had a good year – Scoring 1000pts in a season is nothing to sneeze at. You were probably happy with the production if you owned him. However, everyone hit in 2016 and David Ortiz, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, and Anthony Rizzo outproduced him in 2016. Those are some good names. Certainly Encarnancion wasn’t disappointing, but we will chalk another one up to the loss column here.

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5. No RP will produce $20 of value.

Another loss. Kenley Jansen was fantastic. Zach Britton didn’t allow a run for most of the year. Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller were both traded out of New York, which helped their value. Each of those name comfortably surpassed $20 of value and there are a couple of other you can probably make a case for Melancon, Betances, Familia, etc. The one thing to take from this is that there was decent turnover after the most elite tier of RP. The elite guys are great, but there were a ton of pop-up candidates as well Addison Reed, Will Harris, Kyle Barraclough, etc.  Those guys churned some large profits in 2016.

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6. Danny Valencia will be a top-60 OF

Another win! According to end of season values, Valencia was the 50th Ranked OF in 2016. If you invested in him cheaply – he didn’t cost a ton preseason – you were probably able to get some nice value out of him (4.96 PPG and a .342 wOBA) . He only played 130 games, but given Ottoneu’s large rosters and platoon ability he was (at worst) a perfect depth piece.

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7. David Peralta will be a top-8 OF

I still like you David. I just need you to stay healthy next year. Currently on the 60DL, Peralta only saw the field for 48 games in 2016. The production was dismal (.308 wOBA and 4.1 PPG). I would bet that some of this production was due to his injury, but regardless – if you invested heavily in Perlata, it was crushing. I really like him as a cheaper piece in 2017, but he isn’t worth much at this point.

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8. No rookie will produce $15 of value

Well hello there, Corey Seager. I thought he would make me look dumb on this one. What I didn’t count on was Gary Sanchez, Trea Turner, Trevor Story, and Aledmys Diaz also topping $15 of value. On the pitching side Edwin Diaz came close, I’ll give it to him (with rounding). It wasn’t the historic Rookie class of 2015, but each of these players are likely pillars of any team they are on.

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9. Maikel Franco will be a top-2 3B

This is probably the worst of all of them. Franco ended the year as the 14th ranked 3B. His .311 wOBA and 4.53 PPG is close to the definition of replacement level. On top of that, several other 3B outproduced what I expected at the beginning of the year – Beltre, Seager, Longoria, Lamb, Turner, Castellanos, and Healy were all great sources of production. If this one hurt you, you weren’t alone. Franco burned me as well in 2016.

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10. By season’s end, Justin Vibber will own 85% of all Clayton Blackburns in Ottoneu

This one was mostly for fun. Clayton Blackburn had a down year and didn’t make the majors,and Justin cut bait on all his shares. Blackburn is only owned in ~4.5% of leagues, so if Justin kept his shares I may have actually got this one right. Justin, I blame you personally for not letting me hit .300.

In recent articles, I’ve mentioned several times that Ottoneu uses a soft innings cap of 1,500 for the season. This allows you to go past the the cap on the day you reach it. (This is hardly specific to Ottoneu as Yahoo uses the same rules with innings caps). However, given the point structure many Ottoneu leagues implement there is an inherent advantage of pitching more innings that does not exist in 5×5 or 4×4 leagues. In 4×4 or 5×5 you could maybe boost your W, SV, or K (counting stats), but you could also lower your ratios if the stack of pitchers you employ have a sub-par outing. FanGraphs and SABR points leagues are a little different. In points leagues, as long as a pitcher doesn’t go negative (perform very badly) you will accrue points just by pitching more innings. As we enter the final week of the season I wanted to provide a list of all probable pitchers till the end of the year to help your schedule out those final 50-80 innings. Read the rest of this entry »