Drew Smyly has a unique fastball. Of pitchers to throw more than 1,250 four-seamers in 2016, Smyly’s fastball was second only to Marco Estrada in terms of vertical movement, meaning, the pitch has “rise”. If Wednesday’s WBC game between the United States and Venezuela was any indication, this pitch is becoming even more unique, as Smyly is now throwing harder than he ever has.

Jeff already wrote about this game on the main site, noting why the Mariners should feel pretty good about their pair of starters, and that (at least according to the telecast) Smyly was topping 94mph. However, today, I wanted to use Smyly as a branching off point to talk about another pitcher.

Read the rest of this entry »

Well, it’s Friday. As we head into the weekend, I wanted to take some time to address some ottoneu thoughts and tactics I’ve been ruminating on over the past week. If you’ve read any of my buying generic series, you likely know that I try to entertain all possibilities and look for value when consensus seems to move in one direction. I’m also constantly on the hunt for ways to operate more efficiently. So these are my current thoughts as I consider the ottoneu landscape. Let’s discuss these in the comments. If I’m missing anything, or these tactics seem off, please let me know.

Might David Price present a buying opportunity?

When we released our starting pitcher rankings a week ago, each of Chad, Justin, and myself had David price between $24-$25 as we head into the 2017 Ottoneu season. This was around the same time that a news of a potential injury broke. According to Jim Bowden, there is concern that Price might need tommy john surgery. If he has tommy john, Price will not be a $25 pitcher. However, Price will be reevaluated today and, according to John Farrell, could play catch again tomorrow.

Well it seems like opinions are all over the map on this one.

Let’s start with what we know. Price injured his elbow, leading many to think Tommy John surgery was necessary. However, even though he has received multiple opinions on his elbow from Dr. James Andrews and Dr. Neal ElAttrach,  it doesn’t appear that he is in any hurry to have surgery, and may be on a quicker recovery time than we realize (based on Farrell’s comments). So what does this mean for Ottoneu?

From the Ottoneu Rules Sec V:
Read the rest of this entry »

Recently, those of us at Rotographs who share a specialized interest in Ottoneu released our dollar values for 2017. We finished this process last Friday with our rankings of SP and RP. Today I thought it would be interesting to see where I diverge from Chad and Justin, both in optimism and pessimism. Our values are different in that I ranked everyone based on what I believe their value to be for 2017, accounting for the trade value prospects posses. Neither Justin or Chad ranked prospects, however, so I have excluded them from this analysis. Beyond prospect, I knew there would be some divergences.

I did not expect to be the high man on Aaron Sanchez. I like him just fine, but wouldn’t consider myself to be a strong supporter. I guess I’m more optimistic than I thought. I want to focus on him today. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve been rolling through our ottoneu FanGraphs points league rankings. This year the rankings will include values from myself, Justin Vibber, and Chad Young. We are presenting our individual dollar values, the average of all three individuals, plus the ranking of that average. In addition the tables below include Ottoneu eligibility (5 games started/10 games played in the prior year). Players are ranked at their most valuable position, and the hierarchy we are using is C/SS/2B/3B/OF/1B (with 3B and OF being a coin toss in terms of replacement level, we chose to include 3B/OF eligibles at 3B).

Prior Rankings: C/1B/3B, 2B/SS, OF

Key:
Split – Difference from highest to lowest $ value
Otto.– Average price across Ottoneu FGpts leagues
AVG. – Average $ value from the four of us
(+/-) – Difference between Ottoneu average price and our average $ value

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this month, we took at a look at starting pitcher replacement levels for 2017. Today, we will continue this process for relief pitchers using the same methodology. Please refer back to that post as a primer on how I put my replacement levels together, though I’ll recap some of the methodology here.

2017 Replacement Levels: SP

There are two ways that replacement levels can be defined. This is either as a specific point per game (P/G) or point per inning total (P/IP) or as the nth player ranked at a position. For example, I could say, replacement level for RP is about 6.67 P/IP, or I could say that replacement level for RP is about the 70th RP.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last Friday we kicked off our ottoneu FanGraphs points league rankings. This year the rankings will include values from myself, Justin Vibber, and Chad Young. We are presenting our individual dollar values, the average of all three individuals, plus the ranking of that average. In addition the tables below include ottoneu eligibility (5 games started/10 games played in the prior year). Players are ranked at their most valuable position, and the hierarchy we are using is C/SS/2B/3B/OF/1B (with 3B and OF being a coin toss in terms of replacement level, we chose to include 3B/OF eligibles at 3B).

Prior Rankings: C/1B/3B

Key:
Split – Difference from highest to lowest $ value
Otto.– Average price across Ottoneu FGpts leagues
AVG. – Average $ value from the four of us
(+/-) – Difference between Ottoneu average price and our average $ value Read the rest of this entry »

The subject of calculating replacement levels is a touchy one in ottoneu. Most people who play probably have some opinion on how this process should occur and, if you partake in any of the various ottoneu communities, you have probably witnessed some of the debates from both sides.

I tend to enjoy the process of determining replacement levels and, as I have gone through this process in the past, I wanted to take some time to divulge on my process as we near 2017 draft season. Before we do, we need to acknowledge some methodology or this will quickly turn into a debate of semantics. There are two ways that replacement levels can be defined. This is either as a specific point per game (P/G) or point per inning total (P/IP) or as the nth player ranked at a position. For example, I could say, replacement level for SP is about 4.00 P/IP, or I could say that replacement level for SP is about the 90th SP.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Ottoneu cut deadline marks the end of the 2016 season. It was a successful year with each of my three squads taking on very different roles. There was one champion, one rebuild against a powerhouse team, and one new league designed with incentives to keep everyone invested over the long hall. However, now that February 1 is here (the Otto-Neu Year), I want to take some time to run through some resolutions that I have for the upcoming season. Hopefully they will be helpful to any newcomers to the format, or grizzly old vets in entering year 5+.

I resolve to meet my game caps

This past year, I met my game caps in 2 of my 3 leagues. For 2017, my goal is to meet each of my game caps in each Ottoneu league I play. Even if I can’t make the cap, I always tend to be close, but that isn’t the case for all owners. If you peruse through Ottoneu points leagues, you will find owners in each league to do not make the cap, often by large margins. Maybe meeting game caps is never something you have had an issue with, but for me, it can be a more daunting process than it originally appears. For reference, the format features the following starting lineup: Read the rest of this entry »

If you’ve played ottoneu for any amount of time, you are likely aware of the impact that platoons have on the game. The large rosters are perfect for platooning, and nearly every team in each league will implement it in some form. Most owners are hyper-efficient at this, and could probably tell you which 5 outfielders they plan to use against against right or left handed starting pitching. The goal of platooning, at it’s core, is to boost your points per game production. This typically could lead into a debate of how many roster spots you should devote to platoons, and if you can effectively meet game caps while platooning. This could be debated forever and, if you play ottoneu, you are probably well acclimated to both sides of the debate. However, today I want to take a slightly different approach.

Intuitively, we know that lineup position impacts fantasy production. For example, players who hit at the top of the lineup accrue more plate appearances, and more plate appearances lead to higher volume on counting stats, solely based on where they are slotted in the lineup. With the help of the Fangraphs Split Leaderboards and Baseball Reference seasonal splits, we can take this a little bit further to see the impact.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last year around the cut deadline, I took it upon myself to lead the charge that you’re keeping too many players on your ottoneu team. With the general premise that, despite our best efforts, leagues are heading into their annual auctions with less than optimal keeping habits.

This was not meant as some form of tell all. Certainly it’s reasonable to think that teams should keep some star prospects, or a slightly overpaid Mike Trout if they think they can trade him. However, with the keeper deadline a week and a half away, I want to take some time to update this study for completeness and also update some potential shortcomings.  Read the rest of this entry »