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Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 28–September 3

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

August 28–September 3
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @LAD (56) BAL (117) Zac Gallen (vBAL) Zac Gallen (@LAD), Merrill Kelly 켈리 Brandon Pfaadt, Zach Davies, Slade Cecconi
ATL @COL (47) @LAD (56) Spencer Strider, Max Fried Bryce Elder (x2), Charlie Morton (x2) Jared Shuster
BAL CHW (173) @ARI (100) Kyle Gibson, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez Jack Flaherty, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin
BOS HOU (58) @KCR (142) James Paxton, Chris Sale (@KCR) Chris Sale (vHOU), Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck
CHC MIL (140) @CIN (65) Justin Steele Kyle Hendricks Jameson Taillon (x2), Javier Assad
CHW @BAL (119) DET (93) Dylan Cease Michael Kopech (x2), Touki Toussaint, Mike Clevinger Jesse Scholtens
CIN @SFG (187) CHC (77) Andrew Abbott (@SFG) Graham Ashcraft, Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott (vCHC) Brandon Williamson (x2) Brett Kennedy
CLE @MIN (82) TBR (37) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen Cal Quantrill (?), Noah Syndergaard Xavion Curry
COL ATL (7) TOR (65) Austin Gomber (x2), Peter Lambert, Kyle Freeland, Chris Flexen 플렉센, Ty Blach
DET NYY (182) @CHW (133) Tarik Skubal (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez Reese Olson (x2) Alex Faedo Matt Manning
HOU @BOS (49) NYY (142) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Justin Verlander Cristian Javier, J.P. France José Urquidy
KCR PIT (142) BOS (119) Cole Ragans Brady Singer Zack Greinke (x2) Jordan Lyles, Alec Marsh
LAA @PHI (26) @OAK (187) Patrick Sandoval Lucas Giolito, Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson, Chase Silseth Griffin Canning
LAD ARI (56) ATL (14) Bobby Miller (vARI), Clayton Kershaw (x2) Lance Lynn, Julio Urías, Bobby Miller (vATL) Ryan Pepiot
MIA TBR (72) @WSN (79) Eury Pérez Sandy Alcantara (x2), Braxton Garrett, Jesús Luzardo Edward Cabrera (?)
MIL @CHC (105) PHI (47) Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta Wade Miley (x2), Adrian Houser
MIN CLE (145) @TEX (75) Kenta Maeda, Pablo López Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Dallas Keuchel
NYM TEX (107) SEA (54) José Quintana, Kodai Senga Carlos Carrasco Tylor Megill (x2), David Peterson
NYY @DET (147) @HOU (63) Gerrit Cole Clarke Schmidt Luis Severino (x2), Jhony Brito (x2), Carlos Rodón
OAK @SEA (91) LAA (145) Paul Blackburn JP Sears Adrián Martínez (x2), Ken Waldichuk, Zach Neal
PHI LAA (91) @MIL (107) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola Taijuan Walker (x2), Michael Lorenzen, Cristopher Sánchez
PIT @KCR (142) @STL (79) Johan Oviedo (x2), Mitch Keller Andre Jackson, Osvaldo Bido, Bailey Falter
SDP @STL (79) SFG (135) Blake Snell (x2), Yu Darvish, Michael Wacha Seth Lugo (x2), Rich Hill
SEA OAK (142) @NYM (110) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo
SFG CIN (112) @SDP (117) Logan Webb Alex Cobb (x2) Sean Manaea, Kyle Harrison
STL SDP (140) PIT (79) Miles Mikolas Adam Wainwright (x2), Zack Thompson Dakota Hudson, Drew Rom
TBR @MIA (161) @CLE (142) Aaron Civale (x2), Zach Eflin, Tyler Glasnow, Zack Littell
TEX @NYM (110) MIN (89) Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery Jon Gray (x2), Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning
TOR WSN (77) @COL (47) Kevin Gausman (vWSN), José Berríos, Chris Bassitt Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진, Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Gausman (@COL)
WSN @TOR (112) MIA (128) MacKenzie Gore Josiah Gray (x2), Patrick Corbin Joan Adon, Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 21–27

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

August 21–27
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI TEX (86) CIN (106) Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리 Brandon Pfaadt, Zach Davies (?) Slade Cecconi (x2)
ATL NYM (112) @SFG (183) Charlie Morton, Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Bryce Elder (@SFG) Bryce Elder (vNYM) Yonny Chirinos
BAL TOR (79) COL (167) Kyle Gibson, Kyle Bradish Grayson Rodriguez, Jack Flaherty, Cole Irvin Dean Kremer
BOS @HOU (66) LAD (33) James Paxton (x2), Chris Sale, Brayan Bello Tanner Houck (?), Kutter Crawford
CHC @DET (138) @PIT (81) Justin Steele Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks Javier Assad (x2), Drew Smyly (x2)
CHW SEA (44) OAK (106) Dylan Cease Touki Toussaint (x2), Mike Clevinger (x2), Michael Kopech, Jesse Scholtens
CIN @LAA (97) @ARI (110) Graham Ashcraft (x2), Andrew Abbott (x2), Hunter Greene Brandon Williamson Brett Kennedy
CLE LAD (31) @TOR (79) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen Noah Syndergaard (x2) Xzavion Curry
COL @TBR (88) @BAL (114) Austin Gomber, Kyle Freeland Ty Blach (x2), Peter Lambert, Chris Flexen 플렉센
DET CHC (130) HOU (86) Tarik Skubal Eduardo Rodriguez Reese Olson (x2) Matt Manning, Alex Faedo
HOU BOS (123) @DET (138) Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Cristian Javier, J.P. France José Urquidy (x2)
KCR @OAK (174) @SEA (99) Cole Ragans, Brady Singer Alec Marsh (x2) Angel Zerpa, Jordan Lyles
LAA CIN (62) @NYM (130) Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval Lucas Giolito, Reid Detmers, Chase Silseth Tyler Anderson
LAD @CLE (143) @BOS (84) Clayton Kershaw (x2), Lance Lynn, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urías, Bobby Miller
MIA @SDP (95) WSN (119) Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett Jesús Luzardo, Sandy Alcantara Johnny Cueto (x2)
MIL MIN (70) SDP (81) Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta Wade Miley, Adrian Houser
MIN @MIL (103) TEX (75) Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda Pablo López, Sonny Gray Joe Ryan (?) Dallas Keuchel
NYM @ATL (37) LAA (112) José Quintana, Kodai Senga Carlos Carrasco David Peterson (x2), Tylor Megill
NYY WSN (81) @TBR (88) Gerrit Cole Clarke Schmidt Carlos Rodón (?), Randy Vásquez, Luis Severino Jhony Brito
OAK KCR (132) @CHW (119) Paul Blackburn (x2) Luis Medina Kyle Muller (x2), JP Sears Ken Waldichuk
PHI SFG (108) STL (26) Zack Wheeler (x2), Aaron Nola Michael Lorenzen, Taijuan Walker Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez
PIT STL (62) CHC (116) Johan Oviedo (x2), Mitch Keller Bailey Falter (x2), Andre Jackson, Osvaldo Bido
SDP MIA (136) @MIL (103) Blake Snell (x2), Yu Darvish, Michael Wacha Seth Lugo Rich Hill
SEA @CHW (119) KCR (101) Luis Castillo (x2), George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert Bryan Woo
SFG @PHI (40) ATL (64) Alex Cobb, Logan Webb Ross Stripling (x2), Sean Manaea, Alex Wood
STL @PIT (128) @PHI (29) Matthew Liberatore (x2), Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas Zack Thompson, Dakota Hudson
TBR COL (174) NYY (134) Aaron Civale, Zach Eflin, Tyler Glasnow Zack Littell (x2)
TEX @ARI (110) @MIN (68) Jordan Montgomery (@ARI) Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery (@MIN)
TOR @BAL (114) CLE (117) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 Yusei Kikuchi (x2), José Berríos
WSN @NYY (103) @MIA (150) MacKenzie Gore Josiah Gray, Patrick Corbin Joan Adon, Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams

Just a few notes because I’m on vacation:

  • The Rays get an easy homestand next week with the Rockies and Yankees in town. You could argue that the Astros have two easy matchups too with the Red Sox at home (Boston has been atrocious on the road) and then the Tigers on the road.
  • After playing in Houston, the Red Sox return home to play the red hot Dodgers, giving them two tough matchups next week. The Giants also have a pair of challenging opponents next week in the Phillies and Braves.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Luis Castillo
  • Clayton Kershaw
  • Blake Snell
  • Zack Wheeler
  • Jordan Montgomery
  • Bryce Elder
  • Paul Blackburn

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 14–20

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

August 14–20
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @COL (88) @SDP (83) Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리 (@SDP) Merrill Kelly (@COL), Brandon Pfaadt Slade Cecconi (x2), Ryne Nelson
ATL NYY (114) SFG (143) Max Fried (x2), Charlie Morton, Spencer Strider Bryce Elder, Yonny Chirinos
BAL @SDP (83) @OAK (181) Kyle Gibson, Kyle Bradish Grayson Rodriguez, Jack Flaherty Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin
BOS @WSN (117) @NYY (102) James Paxton, Chris Sale, Brayan Bello Nick Pivetta (x2), Kutter Crawford
CHC CHW (162) KCR (76) Justin Steele Kyle Hendricks, Marcus Stroman (?), Jameson Taillon Javier Assad
CHW @CHC (57) @COL (88) Touki Toussaint, Mike Clevinger, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease Jesse Scholtens
CIN CLE (124) TOR (40) Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott Brandon Williamson, Luke Weaver
CLE @CIN (69) DET (148) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen (vDET) Logan Allen (@CIN) Noah Syndergaard, Xzavion Curry
COL ARI (98) CHW (124) Chris Flexen 플렉센 (x2), Ty Blach, Austin Gomber, Peter Lambert, Kyle Freeland
DET @MIN (88) @CLE (160) Tarik Skubal, Eduardo Rodriguez Reese Olson Alex Faedo (x2), Matt Manning
HOU @MIA (148) SEA (79) Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Justin Verlander J.P. France, José Urquidy
KCR SEA (119) @CHC (57) Brady Singer (x2), Cole Ragans Jordan Lyles (x2), Alec Marsh
LAA @TEX (52) TBR (26) Patrick Sandoval, Lucas Giolito, Shohei Ohtani, Reid Detmers Tyler Anderson, Chase Silseth
LAD MIL (105) MIA (105) Bobby Miller (x2), Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urías Lance Lynn
MIA HOU (98) @LAD (21) Braxton Garrett (x2), Johnny Cueto, Jesús Luzardo, Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez
MIL @LAD (21) @TEX (52) Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta Wade Miley (x2), Adrian Houser
MIN DET (164) PIT (131) Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda, Pablo López, Sonny Gray Dallas Keuchel
NYM PIT (129) @STL (117) Kodai Senga, José Quintana Carlos Carrasco David Peterson (x2), Tylor Megill
NYY @ATL (40) BOS (138) Gerrit Cole Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt (vBOS) Clarke Schmidt (@ATL) Luis Severino, Randy Vásquez
OAK @STL (117) BAL (110) Paul Blackburn JP Sears (x2), Luis Medina Freddy Tarnok, Ken Waldichuk
PHI @TOR (83) @WSN (117) Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Zack Wheeler Ranger Suárez, Michael Lorenzen
PIT @NYM (141) @MIN (88) Johan Oviedo Mitch Keller Bailey Falter, Luis L. Ortiz Quinn Priester (x2)
SDP BAL (83) ARI (136) Yu Darvish (x2), Blake Snell Rich Hill, Seth Lugo Michael Wacha (?)
SEA @KCR (129) @HOU (79) Logan Gilbert (x2), Luis Castillo, George Kirby Emerson Hancock (x2), Bryce Miller
SFG TBR (86) @ATL (40) Alex Cobb, Logan Webb Alex Wood (x2), Ross Stripling
STL OAK (160) NYM (79) Miles Mikolas (x2) Steven Matz Dakota Hudson (x2), Matthew Liberatore, Adam Wainwright
TBR @SFG (193) @LAA (88) Aaron Civale Zack Littell, Zach Eflin, Tyler Glasnow
TEX LAA (83) MIL (124) Max Scherzer (vMIL) Max Scherzer (vLAA), Jordan Montgomery, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning
TOR PHI (57) @CIN (69) Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt Alek Manoah
WSN BOS (131) PHI (59) Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore Patrick Corbin Joan Adon, Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams

A few general schedule notes first:

  • There are a number of teams who have a five-game schedule next week, including the Blue Jays, Cubs, Phillies, Reds, Twins, and White Sox. Those teams might use the two off days to skip a start or reorder their rotations so keep an eye on the scheduled starters next weekend. Pay attention to Philadelphia and Toronto in particular since both of those teams are currently using a six-man rotation, meaning one of their regular starters won’t have a start next week.
  • The Twins look like the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week when they take on the Tigers and Pirates at home. The Brewers have the unenviable task of traveling to Los Angeles and Texas to face two of the toughest offenses in baseball. The Angels also have a rough schedule next week, continuing their grueling stretch of opponents with the Rangers and Rays. I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone on the Blue Jays or White Sox either.
  • Even though the Rockies have two series at home next week, their matchup ratings look artificially mediocre rather than poor like you’d expect. That’s largely due to them playing on the road recently, bringing their last 14 day wOBA down. Even though the matchup rating for the Diamondbacks and White Sox looks okay, I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone at Coors Field anyway.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Max Fried
  • Logan Gilbert
  • Yu Darvish
  • Max Scherzer
  • Bobby Miller
  • Miles Mikolas

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 7–13

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

August 7–13
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI LAD (63) SDP (90) Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리 Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson
ATL @PIT (135) @NYM (121) Spencer Strider (x2), Max Fried, Bryce Elder, Charlie Morton Yonny Chirinos (x2)
BAL HOU (81) @SEA (88) Grayson Rodriguez (x2), Jack Flaherty, Kyle Gibson, Kyle Bradish Dean Kremer
BOS KCR (121) DET (148) Kutter Crawford (x2), James Paxton, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello Chris Sale (?) Chris Murphy (x2)
CHC @NYM (121) @TOR (47) Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks, Justin Steele Drew Smyly (x2) Hayden Wesneski
CHW NYY (90) MIL (110) Dylan Cease (x2) Touki Toussaint, Mike Clevinger, Michael Kopech
CIN MIA (94) @PIT (135) Andrew Abbott Brandon Williamson (x2), Graham Ashcraft Luke Weaver, Levi Stoudt
CLE TOR (54) @TBR (108) Gavin Williams (x2), Tanner Bibee (x2), Logan Allen Peyton Battenfield, Noah Syndergaard
COL @MIL (108) @LAD (20) Kyle Freeland (x2) Peter Lambert (x2), Chris Flexen 플렉센, Ty Blach, Austin Gomber
DET MIN (144) @BOS (56) Eduardo Rodriguez (vMIN), Tarik Skubal Reese Olson, Eduardo Rodriguez (@BOS) Matt Manning (x2), Joey Wentz
HOU @BAL (144) LAA (45) Framber Valdez J.P. France (vBAL), Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Justin Verlander J.P. France (vLAA)
KCR @BOS (56) STL (101) Brady Singer (x2), Zack Greinke Cole Ragans (x2), Jordan Lyles, Alec Marsh
LAA SFG (103) @HOU (76) Patrick Sandoval, Lucas Giolito, Shohei Ohtani Reid Detmers Tyler Anderson, Chase Silseth
LAD @ARI (126) COL (94) Julio Urías (x2), Bobby Miller, Lance Lynn, Tony Gonsolin (vCOL) Tony Gonsolin (@SDP), Clayton Kershaw (?)
MIA @CIN (36) NYY (146) Braxton Garrett (vNYY) Braxton Garrett (@CIN), Jesús Luzardo, Sandy Alcantara Johnny Cueto Ryan Weathers
MIL COL (103) @CHW (133) Freddy Peralta (x2), Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff Wade Miley, Adrian Houser
MIN @DET (180) @PHI (103) Pablo López (x2), Sonny Gray (x2), Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda Dallas Keuchel
NYM CHC (70) ATL (43) Kodai Senga (x2), José Quintana Carlos Carrasco (x2), David Peterson Tylor Megill
NYY @CHW (133) @MIA (146) Gerrit Cole (x2) Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes Luis Severino, Carlos Rodón
OAK TEX (88) @WSN (99) Paul Blackburn, Luis Medina Ken Waldichuk (x2), Zach Neal, JP Sears
PHI WSN (90) MIN (94) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola Ranger Suárez (x2), Michael Lorenzen, Cristopher Sánchez, Taijuan Walker
PIT ATL (49) CIN (74) Johan Oviedo Mitch Keller (x2) Osvaldo Bido (x2), Quinn Priester, Luis L. Ortiz
SDP @SEA (88) @ARI (126) Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell Seth Lugo (x2), Rich Hill
SEA SDP (67) BAL (112) Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller
SFG @LAA (45) TEX (90) Alex Cobb (x2), Logan Webb Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Alex Wood
STL @TBR (108) @KCR (83) Miles Mikolas (x2), Steven Matz Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Adam Wainwright
TBR STL (94) CLE (160) Zach Eflin (x2), Aaron Civale, Tyler Glasnow Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX @OAK (173) @SFG (187) Dane Dunning (x2), Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney
TOR @CLE (137) CHC (43) Kevin Gausman Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 (x2), Yusei Kikuchi, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt Alek Manoah
WSN @PHI (103) OAK (115) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Josiah Gray (x2) Patrick Corbin, Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Braves are entering a particularly tough stretch of their schedule this weekend; they’re about to play 14 games in 13 days without an off day due to a doubleheader against the Mets next weekend. They’re getting Max Fried back from the IL today but they’ll likely need to call up a spot starter next weekend. Luckily both of their matchups next week look pretty easy on paper.
  • The Mets have the benefit of an off day before that extra long weekend series against the Braves but both of their matchups look particularly tough next week. They’re also needing to restock their rotation after the departures of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline.
  • The Yankees and Rangers both have some pretty easy matchups next week, though they’ll all come on the road. New York travels to Chicago and Miami while Texas will play in both of the expansive ballparks in the Bay Area. The Red Sox host the Royals and the Tigers next week which both look like easier matchups too, though Kansas City has been playing particularly well recently.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Gerrit Cole
  • Spencer Strider
  • Pablo López
  • Dylan Cease
  • Julio Urías
  • Zach Eflin
  • Freddy Peralta
  • Sonny Gray
  • Dane Dunning
  • Eduardo Rodriguez
  • Braxton Garrett
  • Kutter Crawford

Ottoneu Relief Pitcher Drip: Sorting Out the Post-Trade Deadline Bullpens

With the MLB trade deadline behind us and the dust still settling, it can be a bit tricky to sort out all the implications for every player moved in a trade this week. It becomes all the more difficult for relievers — both where they fit in the bullpen hierarchy on their new team and how their old team will handle the pecking order. This edition of the Ottonue Relief Pitcher Drip will be devoted to figuring some of those situations while also recommending some under-rostered pitchers who might find themselves in high leverage roles now.

Under-Rostered Relievers
Player Team Role FIP gmLI gmLI (2wks) gmLI Δ Pts/IP Roster%
Carlos Hernández KCR CL 2.96 1.10 2.11 1.01 6.78 64.4%
Gregory Santos CHW CL 2.42 1.13 1.53 0.40 6.17 57.1%
Justin Topa SEA SU8 2.94 1.22 1.11 -0.11 7.05 27.9%
Joe Kelly LAD MID 3.27 1.65 1.92 0.27 6.84 21.2%
JoJo Romero STL SU7 3.09 1.42 2.16 0.74 6.30 2.9%

The White Sox were one of the most aggressive sellers this season, trading away six members of their pitching staff including nearly every reliever who had earned high leverage work this year. Gone are Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo López, Keynan Middleton, and Joe Kelly. That means Gregory Santos is the most likely candidate to pick up save opportunities with Aaron Bummer a possibility as well. I covered Santos the last time this column ran in mid-July and his outlook hasn’t changed much since then. He’s still striking out a decent number of batters and his walk rate is still a pristine 5.0%.

The Royals shipped their closer Scott Barlow off to San Diego at the deadline which means Carlos Hernández will likely step in to handle the ninth inning duties. A failed starter with a hard, riding fastball and a nasty slider, he’s managed to hone the command issues that plagued him in longer outings. He’s cut his walk rate more than four points to just 7.4% this year while also pushing his strikeout rate north of 30%. That’s a definite recipe for success. Beyond Hernández, there really isn’t anyone else in Kansas City’s bullpen worth targeting.

In one of the bigger surprises this week, the Mariners traded their closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks. Seattle already had their closer of the future Andrés Muñoz working the eighth inning ahead of Sewald which makes him the obvious candidate to work the ninth inning now. Matt Brash is almost universally rostered in Ottoneu thanks to his outrageous stuff so the overlooked high leverage reliever in Seattle’s bullpen is almost certainly Justin Topa. He had struggled with a laundry list of injuries with the Brewers, accumulating just 17 appearances across his first three seasons in the big leagues. Finally healthy, he’s been a solid option in high leverage situations for the M’s this year. His sinker-slider combo doesn’t produce a ton of strikeouts but he limits walks and keeps the ball on the ground which is a profile that plays well in Ottoneu.

Joe Kelly isn’t gaining an opportunity to earn more high leverage work because relievers ahead of him on the depth chart were traded away. Instead, he was the guy traded away. He’s joining a Dodgers bullpen that’s had plenty of issues finding consistent performers this year. It isn’t immediately clear where he lands in the pecking order since he’s only appeared in a single game for Los Angeles, coming in during the sixth inning after Caleb Ferguson ran into trouble. His brand of effective wildness is well known by now, though his strikeout rate is now at a career-high 32.3%.

The Cardinals were the other big sellers at the deadline, trading away two relievers from their bullpen. With Ryan Helsley sidelined indefinitely and Jordan Hicks now in Toronto, the obvious choice to work the ninth inning should have been Giovanny Gallegos. Instead, the man who received the first save opportunity on Sunday was JoJo Romero who also worked the ninth inning in a non-save situation yesterday. This is a situation that definitely bears monitoring. Gallegos has been receiving high leverage work in the Cardinals bullpen for four years now so it’s possible they’re trying out different options in the ninth inning to evaluate what they have to work with moving forward. Romero was a highly regarded prospect in the Phillies organization at one point. Both his slider and changeup have whiff rates over 40%, giving him two plus weapons in his arsenal.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 31–August 6

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

July 31–August 6
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SFG (192) @MIN (72) Zac Gallen (x2) Ryne Nelson (@SFG), Merrill Kelly 켈리 Tommy Henry, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson (@MIN)
ATL LAA (54) @CHC (68) Spencer Strider Max Fried (?), Bryce Elder, Charlie Morton Yonny Chirinos
BAL @TOR (56) NYM (135) Kyle Bradish (vNYM) Kyle Gibson (x2), Kyle Bradish (@TOR), Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer
BOS @SEA (114) TOR (56) Brayan Bello (@SEA) James Paxton, Brayan Bello (vTOR) Chris Murphy, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta
CHC CIN (121) ATL (30) Marcus Stroman (vCIN), Justin Steele (vCIN) Marcus Stroman (vATL), Justin Steele (vATL) Drew Smyly, Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks
CHW @TEX (33) @CLE (100) Lance Lynn (x2), Dylan Cease Mike Clevinger, Michael Kopech Touki Toussaint
CIN @CHC (68) WSN (65) Andrew Abbott (x2) Ben Lively 라이블리 (x2), Graham Ashcraft Brandon Williamson, Luke Weaver
CLE @HOU (96) CHW (145) Logan Allen, Aaron Civale, Gavin Williams (vCHW) Gavin Williams (@HOU), Tanner Bibee Peyton Battenfield
COL SDP (63) @STL (75) Kyle Freeland Austin Gomber (x2), Peter Lambert, Chase Anderson, Chris Flexen 플렉센
DET @PIT (159) TBR (126) Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Lorenzen, Tarik Skubal Reese Olson Matt Manning
HOU CLE (98) @NYY (117) Framber Valdez (x2) Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown J.P. France (x2), José Urquidy (?), Brandon Bielak
KCR NYM (149) @PHI (84) Zack Greinke (vNYM) Alec Marsh, Brady Singer, Zack Greinke (@PHI) Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough
LAA @ATL (72) SEA (82) Lucas Giolito, Reid Detmers Shohei Ohtani Griffin Canning (x2), Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson
LAD OAK (112) @SDP (93) Julio Urías (vOAK), Tony Gonsolin, Bobby Miller Emmet Sheehan, Julio Urías (@SDP) Michael Grove
MIA PHI (133) @TEX (33) Edward Cabrera (vPHI), Sandy Alcantara (x2), Braxton Garrett, Johnny Cueto, Jesús Luzardo Edward Cabrera (@TEX)
MIL @WSN (84) PIT (121) Corbin Burnes (x2), Freddy Peralta (x2) Adrian Houser, Julio Teheran Colin Rea
MIN @STL (75) ARI (77) Pablo López (x2), Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda Joe Ryan
NYM @KCR (170) @BAL (131) José Quintana (@KCR), Kodai Senga, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander Carlos Carrasco, José Quintana (@BAL)
NYY TBR (86) HOU (68) Gerrit Cole Domingo Germán (x2), Carlos Rodón Clarke Schmidt, Luis Severino
OAK @LAD (33) SFG (163) Paul Blackburn Ken Waldichuk, Hogan Harris, JP Sears, Luis Medina
PHI @MIA (166) KCR (124) Taijuan Walker (x2), Ranger Suárez (x2), Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez
PIT DET (168) @MIL (103) Johan Oviedo (x2), Mitch Keller Rich Hill Quinn Priester, Osvaldo Bido
SDP @COL (56) LAD (61) Yu Darvish, Blake Snell Joe Musgrove Seth Lugo (x2), Ryan Weathers
SEA BOS (82) @LAA (35) George Kirby (x2), Bryce Miller (vBOS), Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller (@LAA)
SFG ARI (100) @OAK (173) Alex Cobb (x2), Logan Webb Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Ross Stripling
STL MIN (110) COL (93) Jordan Montgomery Jack Flaherty (x2), Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz Adam Wainwright
TBR @NYY (117) @DET (178) Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Tyler Glasnow Zach Eflin
TEX CHW (145) MIA (138) Jon Gray (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning Martín Pérez
TOR BAL (93) @BOS (42) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt (x2), Yusei Kikuchi, José Berríos Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 (?), Alek Manoah
WSN MIL (121) @CIN (84) Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Patrick Corbin, Trevor Williams

A few general schedule notes first:

  • The trade deadline is on Tuesday next week which means some of these rotations might look very different by Wednesday. Keep an eye on the probable matchups early in the week while players get moved around; the recommendations I made above assume that everyone sticks with their original team which obviously won’t happen. When in doubt, use the matchup rating for the series to determine whether or not to start a pitcher on his new team if they’re traded midweek. The rotations for each team should be settled by the weekend which means next week’s recommendations should be a bit more straightforward.
  • The impending returns of Hyun Jin Ryu, Max Fried, Nestor Cortes, and José Urquidy will also shake up the rotations on their respective teams. Generally, I recommend waiting a start or two before inserting a starter back into your lineup after he returns from a major injury like these four are.
  • As far as the actual schedules go, it looks like the Rangers and Mets both get a pair of easier matchups next week. Texas plays at home against two weaker offenses while the Mets travel to two pitcher friendly ballparks.
  • The Braves, Padres, and Reds get a tough slate of opponents next week. Cincinnati and Atlanta both travel to Chicago to face the red hot Cubs and they’ve got tough home matchups in their other series next week too. San Diego travels to Colorado to start next week and then returns home to face the Dodgers over the weekend.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Zac Gallen
  • Framber Valdez
  • Pablo López
  • George Kirby
  • Corbin Burnes
  • Freddy Peralta
  • Alex Cobb
  • Jon Gray
  • Johan Oviedo
  • Brayan Bello
  • Taijuan Walker
  • Ranger Suárez
  • Marcus Stroman
  • José Quintana

The Anatomy of a Ottoneu Dynasty Rebuild: Part 7, Picking Up the Recycling

Ottoneu teams get a whole extra month to complete trades after the official MLB trade deadline which means players get a little longer to evaluate their rosters before really committing to going for a championship or not. If you haven’t been following along with this series, I’ve covered my process of rebuilding this team, from the initial decision to rebuild, to the draft, to preparing to sell. I even detailed the thought process behind a huge blockbuster trade. For rebuilding teams, this is still one of the most exciting periods of the season, not just because of the trade activity, but because of the waiver wire activity too.

On July 13, an owner in Ottoneu League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams cut Mike Trout from his roster. That was about a week after Trout was placed on the IL with a fractured hamate bone in his hand, sidelining him for 4-8 weeks. That set off a chain reaction of moves that I’d like to discuss today.

Trout’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for this Ottoneu player; his team was in seventh place, well out of contention and stuck looking towards the future. I’m sure Trout would have been the centerpiece of a big trade at some point this summer as he looked to recoup any value from the superstar to bolster his roster for the years to come. Instead, he looked at the calculus of Trout’s injury timeline and the upcoming trade deadline and decided to simply cut his losses. Trout’s salary was $70 and no one claimed him on waivers at that price. An auction for him was started a day after he became a free agent and he wound up getting added for $55 by the fifth place team with an outside shot at making a run down the stretch. If Trout returns on the early end of his timeline, he’ll likely give that roster a boost right when it would be needed most.

Adding a $55 player during the draft is tough enough to fit into the $400 budget Ottoneu teams are afforded; it’s even tougher during the season. The owner who picked up Trout wound up cutting Carlos Correa ($40), Seiya Suzuki ($27), and Freddy Peralta ($16). This was when my eyes lit up. I wasn’t about to try and fit Trout onto my roster but all three of those cuts were interesting at the right price. Unfortunately, I did something silly; I mistakenly thought Peralta would go unclaimed on waivers and I’d be able to start an auction for him in a few days. I figured his struggles early this season would have driven down his value below his $16 price tag and I’d be able to win an auction at less than that salary. Instead, three other teams claimed him with the team that originally rostered Trout winning the claim.

Auctions were started for Correa and Suzuki pretty quickly and I entered my maximum bids for each of them. I had a bit of cap space and a handful of higher priced players I could cut to create some more. But I wasn’t looking to add either of those players to help my team this year, I wanted them at a reasonable price to keep for next year. That certainly affected the amount I was willing to bid on them. I bid $28 for Carlos Correa, second behind the winning team bid of $33. Correa’s struggles and questionable health this year don’t necessarily make him a slam dunk keeper for next year and $30 was where I drew the line. It was the same story for Suzuki; I bid $16 because of health and performance concerns and the winning bid was $22. The team who won Suzuki is currently in fourth place and could afford to allocate a few more resources in the hopes that Suzuki could contribute to his club this year.

That second round of auctions set off another domino effect and Shane Bieber ($36) and Teoscar Hernández ($21) were suddenly on the waiver wire as cuts. I liked both of these guys too, even though Bieber was on the IL with an elbow issue. If he was able to avoid surgery, he could be a nice piece for next year at the right salary. Auctions were started for both players and I wound up winning both for $20 and $14, respectively.

The owner who originally cut Trout came out of all this with Peralta and Correa on his roster. That’s not a bad swap and it looks even better considering he’s saving about $9 on Correa’s salary if he chooses to keep him for next season. I’m sure this player knew that simply cutting Trout instead of hoping for a desperate trade in late August might create this kind of domino effect. He didn’t know which players would fall into his lap, but clearing Trout’s salary and getting a couple of potential keepers is a nice consolation.

For my part, I would have preferred to roster any of the guys from that first round of cuts. I do like my consolation prize in Bieber and Hernández, however. I originally rostered the latter at the start of the season and I like his value much better with a $16 salary rather than the $21 I had him at before. And $20 for Bieber could be a nice bargain if he can get past this elbow issue and come back next year healthy and fresh. This little exercise demonstrates why keeping some open salary cap to add players like this during the season is so important. Plenty of bargains can be found on the waiver wire as teams navigate the long season, and every once in a while, a team will cut a high priced player like Trout and set off a long chain reaction that shakes up multiple rosters.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 24–30

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

July 24–30
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI STL (88) SEA (147) Zac Gallen, Ryne Nelson (vSEA) Ryne Nelson (vSTL), Merrill Kelly 켈리 Tommy Henry, Tyler Gilbert
ATL @BOS (39) MIL (125) Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder Charlie Morton, Max Fried (?), Michael Soroka
BAL @PHI (77) NYY (157) Tyler Wells Dean Kremer (x2), Kyle Gibson, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez
BOS ATL (70) @SFG (161) Brayan Bello, James Paxton Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta
CHC @CHW (129) @STL (18) Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jameson Taillon Drew Smyly
CHW CHC (57) CLE (68) Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito Michael Kopech, Lance Lynn Touki Toussaint (x2)
CIN @MIL (86) @LAD (18) Andrew Abbott Ben Lively 라이블리 Graham Ashcraft (x2) Brandon Williamson, Luke Weaver
CLE KCR (147) @CHW (129) Aaron Civale (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen Peyton Battenfield (x2)
COL @WSN (77) OAK (95) Austin Gomber Chris Flexen 플렉센 (?), Peter Lambert, Karl Kauffmann, Chase Anderson
DET LAA (73) @MIA (125) Eduardo Rodriguez (x2), Tarik Skubal, Michael Lorenzen (@MIA) Michael Lorenzen (vLAA), Reese Olson, Matt Manning
HOU TEX (54) TBR (84) Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown Brandon Bielak (x2), J.P. France
KCR @CLE (102) MIN (118) Ryan Yarbrough (x2), Zack Greinke, Alec Marsh, Brady Singer Jordan Lyles
LAA @DET (172) @TOR (66) Patrick Sandoval, Shohei Ohtani Griffin Canning, Chase Silseth, Reid Detmers Tyler Anderson
LAD TOR (59) CIN (86) Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan Michael Grove (x2)
MIA @TBR (120) DET (175) Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez (?), Jesús Luzardo Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara
MIL CIN (95) @ATL (82) Corbin Burnes Freddy Peralta Colin Rea (x2), Adrian Houser, Julio Teheran
MIN SEA (136) @KCR (175) Kenta Maeda (x2), Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober
NYM @NYY (127) WSN (95) Justin Verlander (x2), Max Scherzer José Quintana, Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco
NYY NYM (79) @BAL (84) Gerrit Cole Domingo Germán, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt Luis Severino
OAK @SFG (161) @COL (70) Hogan Harris Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Paul Blackburn, Luis Medina
PHI BAL (18) @PIT (161) Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez (@PIT) Cristopher Sánchez (vBAL), Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez
PIT @SDP (88) PHI (116) Johan Oviedo, Mitch Keller Quinn Priester (x2), Rich Hill Osvaldo Bido
SDP PIT (156) TEX (70) Yu Darvish (vPIT), Blake Snell, Seth Lugo Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish (vTEX)
SEA @MIN (86) @ARI (107) Luis Castillo (x2), George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert Bryan Woo
SFG OAK (159) BOS (113) Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Logan Webb Anthony DeSclafani Ross Stripling (x2)
STL @ARI (107) CHC (52) Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery Dakota Hudson (x2), Steven Matz (x2)
TBR MIA (122) @HOU (116) Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Shane McClanahan Taj Bradley
TEX @HOU (116) @SDP (88) Nathan Eovaldi (x2) Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning Martín Pérez
TOR @LAD (18) LAA (25) José Berríos (x2), Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman Yusei Kikuchi, Alek Manoah
WSN COL (129) @NYM (125) Patrick Corbin (x2), Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore Trevor Williams (x2), Jake Irvin

A few general schedule notes first:

  • There are a bunch of teams who have two off days next week and will only play five games as a result: the A’s, Braves, Marlins, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees. Since they won’t necessarily need a fifth starter, keep an eye on the probable pitchers listed on Sunday in case any of those teams decide to go with a four-man rotation and skip someone’s regular turn in the rotation.
  • The Tigers and Giants would have played only five games next week but they had a rainout rescheduled for Monday. That means San Francisco will play in Washington this weekend, in Detroit on Monday, and then fly home to start a series against the A’s on Tuesday.
  • The Twins easy schedule post-All-Star break continues next week with a pair of matchups against the Mariners (again) and the Royals. Every one of their starters have been pretty close to a must start all season long and you can just set them and forget them next week too.
  • The Blue Jays and White Sox get a pretty tough slate of games next week. Toronto gets the double Los Angeles experience with one series on the road (at the Dodgers) and one at home (versus the Angels). The Cubs and Guardians may not seem like tough opponents on paper, but both teams have been hitting particularly well recently and both series will be played in the home run friendly confines of Guaranteed Rate Field.

Notable two-start pitchers:

  • Justin Verlander
  • Luis Castillo
  • Eduardo Rodriguez
  • Nathan Eovaldi
  • Kenta Maeda
  • Aaron Civale

Ottoneu Relief Pitcher Drip: Finding Under-rostered Relievers

Keeping track of the machinations of 30 major league bullpens is pretty tricky. In standard leagues, it’s hard enough trying to discern which relievers are earning save opportunities, especially since more and more teams are using a committee approach in the ninth inning. In Ottoneu, with both saves and holds earning points, that search for high leverage relievers becomes even more of a challenge. There are plenty of resources out there — the Roster Resource Closer Depth Chart is one of my favorites — but even the most vigilant fantasy player can’t keep track of everything going on across the majors.

Here are a few relievers who have been seeing high leverage usage over the last two weeks, who are also rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues:

Under-rostered Relievers
Player Team Role FIP gmLI gmLI (2wks) gmLI Δ Pts/IP Roster%
Joel Payamps MIL SU8 3.19 1.46 2.00 0.54 7.60 51.9%
Lucas Sims CIN SU8 4.32 1.79 2.28 0.49 6.65 35.6%
Grant Anderson TEX MID 2.75 1.52 2.04 0.52 6.00 33.0%
Shintaro Fujinami OAK SU8 4.96 1.21 1.62 0.41 3.23 12.2%
Gregory Santos CHW SU7 2.44 1.09 1.99 0.90 6.21 9.9%
Chris Stratton STL SU7 2.93 1.08 2.32 1.24 5.98 2.9%
Kevin Kelly TBR MID 2.80 1.39 1.91 0.52 6.77 1.0%
Elvis Peguero MIL SU7 3.31 1.34 1.79 0.45 6.96 0.3%

The Brewers have struggled to find someone to consistently set up Devin Williams in their bullpen hierarchy. Peter Strzelecki held that role for the first two months of the season but he was demoted to Triple-A after a rough patch in June. Abner Uribe has gotten plenty of attention as a possible high-leverage option based on his solid minor league track record but fantasy owners are currently overlooking the guy who is actually getting work in the eighth inning: Joel Payamps. Acquired alongside William Contreras in the big Sean Murphy trade this offseason, the Brewers have had Payamps really lean into his slider as a member of their organization and the results have followed. He’s struck out nearly 30% of the batters he’s faced this season and has collected a hold in 15 of his last 22 appearances while compiling a 1.21 ERA and 2.79 FIP during that stretch. Payamps isn’t the only reliever listed above; Elvis Peguero has been seeing a ton of high-leverage work recently as well. He’s earned a hold in eight of his last ten appearances, though his strikeout rate isn’t as strong as his bullpen-mate.

Lucas Sims and Grant Anderson were featured the last time I wrote about under-rostered relievers and their outlook hasn’t really changed all that much. The former has gotten his command issues under control and has continued to pitch in high-leverage situations in Cincinnati. The Rangers bullpen has been shaken up a bit by the addition of Aroldis Chapman and the injury to Josh Sborz. Anderson is currently listed as a middle reliever by Roster Resource but he earned a hold in his last outing. Then again, his last appearance prior to the All-Star break lasted four innings in mop up duty.

I don’t recommend chasing after high-leverage opportunities on teams like the A’s or the Royals since they’re so few and far between. If you did want to, Trevor May is the ninth inning guy in Oakland and readily available in most Ottoneu leagues. You may want to keep an eye on Shintaro Fujinami however. After being relegated to the bullpen after a month in the rotation, he’s started to figure things out recently. Over his last ten appearances, he’s run a 3.00 ERA backed by a 2.45 FIP and he hasn’t allowed a single walk while striking out 13. He hasn’t collected a hold or a walk in that time, but that’s more to do with his team context than his abilities.

High-leverage work in the White Sox bullpen has been a revolving door due to injuries and ineffectiveness. Gregory Santos might be the current beneficiary of all that churn; he’s collected three holds and a save across his last seven outings. His biggest issue as a prospect in San Francisco’s farm system was a lack of command. He’s managed to figure out that aspect of his profile — he’s walked just 5.0% of the batters he’s faced this year — while continuing to strike out a decent number of batters. The key has been swapping in a sinker for his four-seamer while continuing to rely on his fantastic slider as his primary pitch.

Speaking of teams who are struggling to figure out their bullpen, the Cardinals have now turned to Chris Stratton in high-leverage situations recently. At this point in his career, Stratton is a fairly well known quantity; his high-spin fastball and curveball combo give him a pretty solid foundation. Still, he doesn’t have the same kind of high ceiling as some of the other arms on this list. Chase the opportunity in St. Louis if you want, but be ready to cut him loose if he falls out of the high-leverage picture.

The Rays have surprisingly had one of the worst bullpens in baseball this year, specifically struggling to find guys to bridge from their starters to Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks in the eighth and ninth innings. Amazingly enough, it might be their Rule-5 pick, Kevin Kelly, who is rising up the hierarchy recently. He’s a sidearming righty with a heavy sinker and a sweeping slider. His strikeout rate isn’t much to look at but his funky delivery and diving pitch movement make it nearly impossible for batters to elevate off him with authority. He hasn’t allowed a run since May 12 and he earned an easy hold in his first appearance after the All-Star break.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 14–23

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

July 14–23
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Series 3 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @TOR (98) @ATL (44) @CIN (28) Gallen (x2) Nelson (x2), Henry (x2), Davies (x2), Gilbert
ATL CHW (142) ARI (116) @MIL (77) Morton (x2), Strider (x2) Elder (x2) Allard (x2), Soroka
BAL MIA (100) LAD (63) @TBR (125) Kremer (vMIA), Gibson (x2), Bradish (x2), Wells (x2) Kremer (vLAD) Irvin (x2)
BOS @CHC (132) @OAK (195) NYM (72) Bello (x2), Paxton (x2) Pivetta (@OAK) Crawford (x2), Pivetta (vNYM)
CHC BOS (104) WSN (70) STL (35) Stroman (x2), Steele (x2) Hendricks (x2) Taillon (x2), Smyly (x2)
CHW @ATL (44) @NYM (107) @MIN (118) Cease (@MIN), Giolito (x2) Kopech (@NYM), Lynn (@MIN) Kopech (@ATL), Lynn (@ATL), Cease (@ATL), Toussaint
CIN MIL (70) SFG (72) ARI (77) Abbott (x2) Ashcraft (x2), Lively (x2) Williamson (x2), Weaver (x2)
CLE @TEX (33) @PIT (130) PHI (79) Civale (@PIT), Bieber (x2) Williams (vPHI), Bibee (vPHI), Allen Civale (@TEX), Williams (@TEX), Bibee (@TEX)
COL NYY (77) HOU (60) @MIA (102) Gomber (x2), Seabold (x2), Anderson (x2)
DET @SEA (104) @KCR (188) SDP (130) Rodriguez (x2), Skubal (x2) Lorenzen (x2) Olson (x2), Manning (x2)
HOU @LAA (70) @COL (72) @OAK (195) France (@OAK), Valdez (x2), Javier (@OAK), Brown (@OAK) Javier (@LAA) France (@LAA), Brown (@COL) Bielak
KCR TBR (128) DET (174) @NYY (109) Singer (x2) Marsh (x2), Lyles (x2), Lynch (x2), Yarbrough (x2)
LAA HOU (67) NYY (84) PIT (100) Ohtani (x2), Detmers (vPIT) Detmers (vHOU), Sandoval Canning, Barria Anderson (x2)
LAD @NYM (107) @BAL (111) @TEX (33) Urías (x2), Gonsolin (vNYM), Miller (vNYM) Sheehan (@BAL) Gonsolin (@TEX), Miller (@TEX), Sheehan (@TEX), Grove
MIA @BAL (111) @STL (74) COL (181) Garrett (x2), Luzardo (x2) Alcantara (x2) Hoeing, Cueto
MIL @CIN (28) @PHI (65) ATL (21) Burnes (x2), Peralta (x2) Houser (x2), Miley (x2), Teheran
MIN @OAK (195) @SEA (104) CHW (146) Maeda (x2), López (x2), Ryan (x2), Gray (x2), Ober (x2)
NYM LAD (56) CHW (144) @BOS (51) Verlander (vCHW) Verlander (vLAD), Senga (x2), Scherzer (x2), Quintana?, Carrasco
NYY @COL (72) @LAA (70) KCR (158) Schmidt (vKCR), Cole (vKCR), Germán (vKCR) Rodón (x2), Cole (@COL), Germán (@LAA) Schmidt (@COL), Severino
OAK MIN (174) BOS (130) HOU (123) Blackburn (x2), Sears (x2) Harris (x2), Medina (x2), Waldichuk (x2)
PHI SDP (79) MIL (81) @CLE (125) Walker (@CLE), Wheeler (x2), Nola (x2) Sánchez (x2), Walker (vSDP), Suárez (x2)
PIT SFG (121) CLE (142) @LAA (70) Oviedo (vSFG), Keller (vCLE) Oviedo (@LAA), Keller (@LAA) Hill (x2) Bido (x2)
SDP @PHI (65) @TOR (98) @DET (172) Snell (x2), Lugo (@DET), Musgrove (x2) Darvish (x2) Lugo (@PHI) Weathers
SEA DET (144) MIN (142) TOR (107) Castillo (x2), Kirby (x2), Gilbert (x2), Woo (x2), Miller (x2)
SFG @PIT (130) @CIN (28) @WSN (93) Cobb (@PIT), Webb (@WSN) Wood (x2), Webb (@CIN) Cobb (@CIN), DeSclafani (x2) Stripling (x2)
STL WSN (125) MIA (51) @CHC (93) Mikolas (x2), Montgomery (x2) Flaherty (x2) Matz (x2) Hudson (x2)
TBR @KCR (188) @TEX (33) BAL (91) Glasnow (@KCR), Eflin (x2), Bradley (x2) Glasnow (@TEX) Chirinos (x2)
TEX CLE (121) TBR (93) LAD (42) Gray (vCLE) Gray (vTBR), Heaney (vCLE), Eovaldi (x2) Heaney (vLAD), Dunning Pérez (x2)
TOR ARI (91) SDP (81) @SEA (104) Berríos (x2), Gausman (x2) Bassitt (x2) Kikuchi (x2), Manoah
WSN @STL (74) @CHC (132) SFG (88) Gore (x2) Gray (x2), Irvin Corbin (x2), Williams (x2)

A few general schedule notes first:

  • With the All-Star break taking up the first half of this week, head-to-head matchups in most leagues will span July 14–23. In Ottoneu head-to-head leagues with a Games Started cap, players will need to wisely plan their matchups since the number of starts they have to cover is the same, only with three extra days in the matchup window.
  • There are just a few teams who will start off the second half of the season with a string of easier matchups. Both the Twins and the Mariners are probably your best bet to set it and forget it with their entire rotations. Seattle has ten games at home following their All-Star hosting duties and two of their three opponents are particularly weak.
  • On the other hand, there are a bunch of teams with a stretch of tough opponents following the midseason break. The Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Reds all have particularly challenging matchups over the next ten days which makes it a bit of a risk to rely on any of their pitchers. Not only do Cincinnati’s opponents hit well, they’re also playing all three series at home in the most home run friendly ballpark in the majors.
  • Keep an eye on how teams line up the back half of their starting rotations after this weekend. Most teams haven’t announced starters for games early next week, and the order they lineup their fourth and fifth starters could have an effect on their matchups next weekend.