I’ve been mock drafting along with the MLB amateur draft for as long as I can remember and was inspired to do so by Jim Callis, who did the same thing for Baseball America (He’s now with MLB.com). But unlike a lot of mock drafts, I choose who I would take at each slot not who I think teams will take.

I’ll be doing another mock first round on Day 1 of the draft but I thought it might be fun to look back at how well I did last year while drafting for each of the first 30 selections. Obviously, it’s too early to know exactly how the 2018 draft will play out in the long term but we can still gain some insight.

My choices are always based on a healthy dose of video review with some statistical analysis rolled in for the college players, as well as from information gleaned from player reports from Fangraphs, Baseball America and the gentlemen at the MLB.com Prospect Pipeline (the aforementioned Callis and Jonathan Mayo).

I’ve had some success making the first overall selection in the past including nabbing Kris Bryant in 2013 (He went second overall after the Astros whiffed on Mark Appel with the first pick) and Carlos Correa, who actually went first overall to the Astros in 2012, which went against the industry consensus at the time.

Looking way back to 2007, my two favorite prep arms were Tim Alderson (oops) and Madison Bumgarner.

OK, let’s get started with the review. Remember, this is a ranking of where I feel the players should be drafted based on future potential, not based on where I think they’ll actually go.

My Pick: 1. (Tigers) Casey Mize, RHP, college

Well, this one was a no-brainer for both myself and the Tigers. And Mize has looked every bit the stud hurler. He’s already in Double-A and should already be a highly-sought-after commodity in dynasty leagues. Mize has a 1.66 ERA in 14 career starts and the only though the concerns me a little bit is the lack of big strikeout numbers (68 in 70.1 innings).

My Pick: 2. (Giants) Brady Singer, RHP, college

Singer was a top pick out of high school, too, as a second-rounder who failed to sign with the Jays but he lost some luster as the 2018 draft approached with some fearing he’d develop into a future reliever. I still loved what I was seeing from him and he’s performed great in pro ball after sliding all the way to 18th overall to the Royals. He has a 2.13 ERA in 50. 2 innings in High-A ball. I definitely would not have regretted this pick, although the Giants did OK with Joey Bart, who’s been injured but effective when healthy.

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The 2019 MLB amateur draft is just over a week away! The Prospect Stock Watch has been devoting time to reviewing the 2018 draft. Earlier this week, we reviewed the second round of the draft. Today’s piece is going to look into which players have so far represented the best value from the third, fourth and fifth rounds.

This piece will naturally favor college picks as they’re generally more advanced and many of the prep players taken in later rounds of the draft require extra time in extended spring training before joining full-season ball. This piece looks at players’ results as well as the potential ceilings they possess based on their tools.

Best third-round pick: Terrin Vavra, SS, Rockies

When the year began, I would have hedged my bets towards Tristan Pompey or Kody Clemens being the steals of the fourth rounds. But Pompey posted a strikeout rate near 50% in High-A ball and earned a trip back to extended spring training to work things out. Clemens is still in High-A but he’s struggled to hit consistently and his 25% strikeout rate is high for someone who’s not a power hitter. That leads us to Vavra, who was drafted out of the University of Minnesota, and with less pedigree – although his brothers played pro ball, too. The middle infielder has shown good pop and a solid plate approach with a BB-K of 21-36 in 41 games. The line-drive rate sits at 24% and once Vavra gets a little stronger, he should start to hit even more balls over the fence. It remains to be seen if Vavra can stick at shortstop but he appears to have the offensive profile to stick at a number of different positions.

Runner Up: Owen Miller, SS, Padres

San Diego though enough of Miller’s strong pro debut in 2018 to jump him over High-A ball and assign him directly to Double-A. He’s barely missed a beat with a .301 average, and has now hit .300 at every level he’s played out. The downside to Miller is that his ceiling is somewhat limited with modest power and limited stolen base acumen. With that said, and although just 13 of his 52 hits have gone for extra bases, he has generated a 27% line-drive rate so there could be more gap pop (ie. doubles and triples) to come as he matures. He’s even more likely to end up at second base, or serve as an offensive-minded utility player.

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With the MLB amateur draft just over two weeks away, the Prospect Stock Watch is checking in on some 2018 draft picks. A lot of attention is always paid on first-round picks so let’s have a look at some of the players that slipped out of the first round last year and landed in the second round. The players listed below have all had strong starts to their pro career and are great reminders that you can find strong prospect values in other rounds. All the players listed below should be monitored for future value in dynasty leagues and, eventually, redraft leagues.

Sean Hjelle, RHP, Giants: Hjelle has a massive frame at 6-foot-11 but he’s not a power pitcher. Still, low-A ball hitters have struggled to handle him. He’s struck out 44 batters in 40.2 innings while inducing ground balls at a high rate of two-to-one. It’s time for the Giants to challenge the right-hander with a promotion to high-A ball as he should be overpowering these young hitters after a three-year college career. He’s a name to file away and monitor over the next couple of years.

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With the 2019 amateur draft only three weeks away, the Prospect Stock Watch is reviewing some of the players from last year’s draft. Today, we’re checking in on 13th overall selection Connor Scott of the Miami Marlins.

The decision to start 2019 in full-season ball was a surprising move by the Marlins. The young outfielder was drafted out of a Florida high school where he was a two-way player (left-handed pitcher and outfielder). At the time of the draft, I wrote that Scott should be selected in the first or second round — but as a pitcher. Admittedly, the scouting consensus at the time was that he should be selected as a hitter due to his toolsy, athletic skill set. I personally loved his easy delivery, great pitcher’s frame and potential to develop at least two above-average offerings from the left side.

After he signed with the Marlins as an outfielder last June, he was assigned to Rookie ball where he posted a .630 OPS in 27 games. He was then oddly pushed up to Low-A ball for another 23 games where the OPS dipped to .572 and he struck out 30% of the time. On the plus side, he showed a willingness to take a walk with an 11% walk rate.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we’re going to take a look at a struggling prospect who entered 2019 with some hype: shortstop Kevin Smith of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Smith landed on a number of pre-season Top 100 lists, although I was not one of the people on the bandwagon. With that said, I listed him as “The Riser” in the Jays system prior to 2019 based on the hype he was generating but offered these words of caution when discussing his mid-season promotion from Low-A to High-A ball in 2018:

“He then received a promotion to High-A ball around mid-season and continued to produce over-the-fence power but his approach at the plate de-evolved to more of his pre-2018 style. The walks dried up and the strikeouts rose… Smith’s prospect value is up but I’m hoping to see more of the early-2018 Smith rather than the later-2018 Smith.”

Unfortunately, we’re once again seeing more of the later-2018 Smith’s production at the Double-A level. I was surprised to see him start 2019 in Double-A but the Jays were stuck after Logan Warmoth (another shortstop who was drafted in the first round of the same draft as Smith) was terrible for all of 2018 at High-A ball and was forced to repeat the level. That pushed Smith up by default.

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The Colorado Rockies are swimming in infield depth.

Leaving the first base position to discuss another day, the Rockies are stacked with options at the other three infield positions. Obviously, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are entrenched at their respective positions of third base and shortstop.

Then we have promising young players Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson, who have both graduated to the big league roster. McMahon has been given everyday reps at second base in 2019, while Hampson’s slow start has relegated him to more of a utility player – although he possesses the tools to be an everyday guy.

Looking further down the depth chart, we can find interesting names at each of the full-season affiliates for the Rockies.

Triple-A: Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS/3B

Rodgers is the player that most prospect watchers and Rockies fans are already aware of given his previous first-round selection, and subsequent minor league successes. In fact, Rockies fans are already expressing their frustrations to me that he’s still in the minor leagues and not helping the big league club solidify a more favorable spot in the NL West standings.

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The Houston Astros do a lot of things very well.

Drafting pitchers in the first round is not really one of them. Over the past 10 years, the Astros have selected hurlers four times. Brady Aiken and Mark Appel were huge misses as first-overall selections. Forrest Whitley, taken 17th, looks like a future top-of-the-rotation arm.

And then there is J.B. Bukauskas. The right-hander was a polarizing pick but the Astros bought into his college success — despite the question marks surrounding his transition to pro ball — and selected him 15th overall in 2017. Three years into his pro career, those questions are only getting louder.

Bukauskas made just three pro appearances in 2017. His 2018 season was stunted by injury. He played at five levels, including his rehab appearances, and topped out at Double-A (one game). In total, there was nothing alarming about his numbers. In fact, overall, he had a 2.14 ERA and struck out 71 batters in 59 innings while also showing some solid ground-ball rates.

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You know about Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres. You also know about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays. And Wander Franco of the Tampa Bay Rays, who just turned 18 in March, is starting to garner the attention that he deserves.

Clearly, FanGraphs alumni have also been paying attention. Dave Cameron jumped on the Tatis gravy train in San Diego… while Carson Cistulli did the same in Toronto… and Jeff Sullivan skipped off to Tampa Bay. No doubt there is a FanGraphs writer about to head west to Seattle.

Why? Because of 18-year-old outfielder Julio Rodriguez, who happens to be the focus of this piece. And it’s not my first time talking about this budding star. In early March, during the Mariners 2018 season in review piece, I wrote:

The 2019 Lottery Ticket: Julio Rodriguez, OF: There are a few low-level minor league players that possess the ability to burst onto the scene like Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. have in recent years. Wander Franco in Tampa Bay is one and Rodriguez could be another, although he’s not quite as advanced with the bat at this point. He has immense power potential but he doesn’t sell out for home runs and focuses on hitting the ball hard and using the whole field. He has a patient approach but also has swing-and-miss to his game due to a lack of experience as opposed to any major mechanical flaws. Rodriguez reportedly has solid makeup and is a hard worker, all things that can help a prospect maximize their tools.

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Welcome to the first Prospect Stock Watch of 2019. This is a little feature I’ve been doing since 2012. It provides thoughts and observations about a handful of prospects each time out. Today, we have a chance to review prospects from the Red Sox, Mets, and Blue Jays.

Tanner Houck, RHP, Red Sox (AA):

It’s been a frustrating season for the Red Sox so far so any good news out of the barren minor league season would be very welcomed. Houck’s first Double-A start will not be included in the “good news” category. The former first-round pick, and top college hurler, struggled mightily in the low-50s F weather. He threw a number of deep counts early and was around (but not consistently in) the strike zone with his collection of offerings.

Houck’s slider had its moments in the game and he showed the ability to throw it for strikes or as a chase offering. The biggest issue Houck has was that his fastball command was just not strong good enough for a starting pitcher with only two pitches. It’s too easy for hitters to sit on one offering and fight off (or lay off) everything else. The heater was mostly 91-93 mph.

It’s early but this look at Houck underscores the concerns over his overall ceiling. He looked more like a No. 4 starter than a top-of-the-rotation arm, which was the hope early on in his college career. His stuff would probably play up out of the bullpen.

Bonus: On a side note, Bobby Dalbec showed some solid athleticism at third base. In one particular instance, he charged a slow roller and threw on the run to catch a solid runner. He showed a strong arm on a number of occasions. I really like the defensive side of his game but, despite the power, the question marks remain on the offensive side. Dalbec is off to a slow start with the bat as he returns to Double-A but he does have three walks in the first three games.

David Peterson, LHP, Mets vs Zach Logue, LHP, Jays (AA)

I wanted to get my eyes on this game because of the interesting contrast in starting pitchers. Both are southpaws but Peterson was the more highly regarded college hurler as a first-round selection in the 2017 draft. Logue, meanwhile, is a fast-riser in the Jays system. He was selected in the ninth round of that same draft and, like Peterson, was making his first Double-A appearance.

Peterson showed a nice, easy arm action that made the fastball look faster than it was. He utilized his height well and kept the ball down. He also showed the ability to hit the strike zone with all of his offerings. As with any pitcher who lacks a blazing fastball, Peterson is at his best working down in the zone but he did a nice job changing hitters’ eye levels when necessary and kept the ball out of the meat of the zone when he pitched up.

Logue showed a solid curveball and worked exceptionally well at the knees with his 91-93 mph fastball. He showed the ability to get ahead of hitters with his fastball. He showed a sweeping breaking ball for strikes and would then create more depth on the offering to turn it into a chase pitch with two strikes. Logue was not afraid to throw inside to left-handed hitters. He has an easy delivery, which helped him create above-average control and command. I didn’t see much of his changeup.

Despite the significant gap in draft range with these two hurlers, their ceilings appear to be similar as future No. 4 hurlers that can come in, throw strikes, keep the ball down and provide you five or six innings of work. I give a slight edge to Peterson because he has a deeper repertoire.

Bonus: I’m quickly becoming a fan of Jays catcher Alberto Mineo. Signed out of Italy by the Cubs, he’s been a long-term project and came to the Jays last year after six years in Chicago’s system. But he’s still just 24 and coming off of a solid offensive season. Double-A will be the real test but I liked what I saw from a defensive standpoint. He created an excellent target for the pitcher and had a very quiet set-up behind the plate. Mineo has also maintained his athletic build despite the time behind the dish. In his first at-bat of the night, the left-handed hitter took the ball the other way against the southpaw for a well-stung single. If the offensive showing from 2018 (which actually began in ’17) continues, there might actually be a big league back-up here.

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008 and wraps up with the 30th and final piece with the 2019 baseball season now upon us.

If you were perusing this series in late 2017 you would have read:

The Sleeper: Myles Straw, OF: I’m a sucker for hitters like Straw. He’s one of those speedy guys that understands he just needs to get on base to be valuable and sacrifices the power to make contact. He also uses what the pitchers give him and will constantly pepper the opposite field. He’s no threat to hit even five homers in a season but he still has pop in his bat; he produced a 22.5% line drive rate in 2017 and was at 26% in Low-A ball in ’16. Straw is a threat to hit .270-.300 as a big leaguer with the ability to steal 20+ bases as a full-time player but he’s probably best suited for a fourth-outfielder role. And he has a chance to be a very good one.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Josh James, RHP: A former 34th round pick, James saw his fastball velocity trend upward over the past year and so did his fortunes. He can now overpower hitters to make up for his modest command, and he’s also shown improvements in his secondary offerings. He may end up with three average-or-better offerings. James still has some detractors because of his iffy command/control but another strong season in 2019 will quiet talk of him ending up in the bullpen. He’s been mostly durable as a pro and could provide at least 150-160 innings during the coming season — much of which should come from the Astros rotation.

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