Prospect Stock Watch: Bukauskas, and Padres Shortstops

The Houston Astros do a lot of things very well.

Drafting pitchers in the first round is not really one of them. Over the past 10 years, the Astros have selected hurlers four times. Brady Aiken and Mark Appel were huge misses as first-overall selections. Forrest Whitley, taken 17th, looks like a future top-of-the-rotation arm.

And then there is J.B. Bukauskas. The right-hander was a polarizing pick but the Astros bought into his college success — despite the question marks surrounding his transition to pro ball — and selected him 15th overall in 2017. Three years into his pro career, those questions are only getting louder.

Bukauskas made just three pro appearances in 2017. His 2018 season was stunted by injury. He played at five levels, including his rehab appearances, and topped out at Double-A (one game). In total, there was nothing alarming about his numbers. In fact, overall, he had a 2.14 ERA and struck out 71 batters in 59 innings while also showing some solid ground-ball rates.

The 2019 season has been a hot mess for Bukauskas and, through his three starts, he’s thrown just 8 innings with 16 hits allowed, 12 walks and just seven strikeouts. His ERA sits at 19.13. After watching his most recent start on April 18 his struggles appear to be a combination of poor mechanics and a mental block.

His first two pitches of the game were solid strikes to the left-handed batter. Then, the next three pitches were up and away with the final one so bad it was about seven feet high and right to the backstop. He then did a better job of keeping his shoulder closed and worked down and on with the next two offerings and got the overly-aggressive hitter to ground out to the first baseman. All pitches appeared to be fastballs.

The second batter, another left-handed hitter, faced the first breaking ball of the night for ball one. The second pitch was a fastball and it, again, was high and away to the backstop.

The trend continued for 2.1 innings. The opposing team managed just three hits against the wild Bukauskas but he issued five walks, which led to six earned runs. It likely would have been much worse if not for some aggressive swings and balls out of the strike zone but it was also likely a very uncomfortable time spent in the batter’s box for many of the hitters.

Bukauskas’ delivery has not improved as a pro. It’s stiff, lacks fluidity and is extremely unathletic. He has a short-arm delivery that he struggles to repeat but wavers between leaving his shoulder open and having the ball fly up and to the right, and holding onto the ball too long and yanking it down and to the left. He looks like the strong-armed shortstop that got called into a 20-1 drubbing to close out the game. Although to be fair, I’ve seen better deliveries from some of those players.

His best pitch has always been the slider but he couldn’t even get to a point where that pitch could be effective. And Bukauskas may also have been working under instruction to favor the heater to try and learn some form of fastball command.

The lost development time in 2018 has definitely hurt this pitcher. At this point, it’s hard to envision him as anything more than a one-inning pitcher. And neither the command nor the control is strong enough for him to work as a high-leverage reliever. The mental frustration is exacerbating his struggles right now but I honestly struggle to see how he can survive in the Majors as a starting pitcher with that delivery and arm action.

Owen Miller, SS, Padres

One of the pleasant surprises in the Bukauskas game was the play of the Padres’ Double-A shortstop. Owen Miller, 22, was selected in the third round of the 2018 draft based mostly on his defensive skill/reputation. His first two college seasons saw OK offensive contributions but he really broke out during his junior year after also showing promise with wood bats in the college summer leagues.

But no one expected the kind of offensive outburst that we saw during his pro debut. He hit .335 in 75 games split between short-season A-ball and full-season Low-A ball. Out of curiosity, I took a peak to see where Miller was ranked by MLB.com and Baseball America prior to the season and he landed 26th and 23rd, respectively. From what I’ve seen and based on the aggressive assignment to Double-A, those rankings are both on the light end — even in a strong system like this one.

Miller followed up his pro debut with a strong showing in spring training this year and earned the aggressive bump to Double-A. He caught my eye in his first at-bat of the game against Bukauskas. He worked the walk against the wild hurler but he navigated the at-bat well and didn’t try to do too much. He fell behind in the count 0-2 but then battled back and took two balls. He shortened his swing and even tried to send the ball the other way.

This one at-bat seemed to sum up the shortstop prospect perfectly. Miller’s swing is clearly geared to pepper line drives all over the field, although he is showing a little more over-the-fence pop than expected in the early going. His line-drive rate currently sits at 29% and he’s using the opposite field at a rate of 49%.

He was also impressive on defense. Known as a steady defender with a fringe-average arm, Miller showed excellent actions in the field. He made athletic plays in each of the first two innings, including a spinning strike to second base to try and start a double play. Based on the observations of one game, he looks like a capable defender at shortstop if he can overcome the lack of arm strength. If not, he could be a very good second baseman.

Xavier Edwards, SS, Padres

Speaking of impressive Padres shortstops, another 2018 draft pick is performing well in pro ball. Supplemental first rounder Xavier Edwards, taken 38th overall, is more than holding his own in Low-A ball at the age of 19. He has yet to hit an extra-base hit this season but he sports a .306 batting average and an encouraging K-BB of 6-6 through his first 13 games. The diminutive and speedy infielder is also 6-for-8 in stolen base attempts.

This success comes on the heels of a strong debut in 2018 that saw him hit .346 with a K-BB of 25-31 and 22 steals in 23 tries.

Defensively, Edwards is a quick-twitch athlete whose speed expands his range and allows him to reach a lot of balls. His arm is a tad short for the position and he can be a little inconsistent. He’s split his time between second base and shortstop in the early going.

There is some real potential here but Edwards needs to get stronger and gain better consistency in the field as he moves up through the system.