Many people believe that fantasy leagues are won prepping for the auction or draft. Having a plan, being ready to execute, and then following through can make all the difference.
But any time I have started a new ottoneu league, I have intentionally NOT planned. Well, that isn’t exactly true, but the No-Plan Plan is far less defined than how I approach any other league.
Before diving back into this, after our long weekend away, I want to let you know what to expect this (hopefully this) week: Part 5 is clearly here right now, and Mike and I are working on parts 6 and 7 as we speak. In Part 6, I’ll be looking at the equations Mike came up with the other day along with one other equation that smarter statistical minds than mine are currently developing. Ideally, part 6 will be something of a wrap on our attempt to find an equation for expected HR/FB within a season. In Part 7, Mike will take a deeper look at a handful of players, and see how useful this new equation really is.
Today, I’ll be looking at another piece of the puzzle – what happens in future years to guys who show breakout distance on their fly balls.
The ottoneu keeper deadline was jam-packed this year, at least judging by the activity in my deadline chat, the questions popping up on Twitter and all the action in my leagues. Across the Original ottoneu league, the second FanGraphs Staff League, and the FanGraphs Experts League alone, 223 players were cut on January 31, and 29 more players changed hands via trade over the final couple days of roster action.
As you all recover from what I am sure was a similarly hectic deadline rush, I am going to try to provide some insights into what happened a) in my three leagues and b) across the universe of leagues to give you a sense of what the ottoneu-verse looks like today.
I will be by from 10-11pm ET tonight to chat before the ottoneu deadline. The queue will open well before, so get your questions in!
Yesterday, Mike Podhorzer shared part one of this epic journey and teased that today we would be incorporating batted ball angle to see if that helps our model. I am, in fact, going to do that today.
But first, I am going to take a quick step back and let you know my reasons for doing this. Next, I’ll introduce some data on batted ball angle, as noted above.
We often talk about ottoneu as if it were a single game and experience, but in reality it is three very different games, depending on which scoring system you choose. As with any fantasy format, you have different values on different players based on the stats you choose, but even the ways you reflect those stats can have a huge impact on the way the game is played and the way auctions proceed.
For those of you who are thinking about starting an ottoneu league (or another ottoneu league), I wanted to take a look at the three different formats and what you should expect in terms of game play and player valuation for each.
Over the next three weeks, I am putting together three articles to help both existing and new ottoneu players (including one for those still thinking about ottoneu). Next week we’ll look at how the three scoring systems offered by ottoneu compare, and the week after I’ll offer some guidance for those venturing into their first ottoneu experience. In the midst of all that, expect to see a detailed breakdown of how I create projected auction values for my ottoneu leagues.
But this week, with just nine days until rosters freeze, I am going to focus on those of you in your second or third year in ottoneu, or those of you taking over abandoned teams. In many ways, the next nine days are some of the most important to your season – moves you make now can put you on the path to a title or start a downward spiral.
The FanGraphs Experts League has been a relatively slow moving league with regards to trades. I am told this is fairly common in experts leagues (my dubious standing as an expert makes it difficult for me to validate this on my own).
But in the last week, we have had a veritable flurry of trade activity, with not one, not two, but THREE TRADES going down in a 48 hour period.They are intriguing trades on their own, but also have some good lessons that I think can help all ottoneu players make final moves before the January 31 roster deadlines.
Prior to each baseball season, usually in January or February, I put together a massive spreadsheet that rates players in every format I play in. Placing a value on a given player is actually not that hard, assuming you have a decent projection of what that player will do over the course of the next season. Valuing “Albert Pujols” may not always be easy, but if I tell you I have a 1B who will put up 31 HR with a .285/.359/.516 line, that is something you can probably work with.
The issue is that depending on what system you pick, you could end up with some very different values.
One of the joys of living on the West coast is that when my articles go up at 8:15 a.m. ET, I often have a few comments in reply before I even wake up. Somehow, I don’t think that will be the case today.
But once you do rise from the late-night-party-induced stupor that infects everyone on January first, you’ll be only weeks from the ottoneu keeper deadline and it will be time to think long and hard about what you did right in 2012, what you did wrong, and what you can do better. Here are my ottoneu Year’s Resolutions (otto-New Year’s Resolutions may be grammatically correct, I am not sure), which will hopefully include a few nuggets of wisdom that you can use, as well.