Carlos Santana – Fantasy 3B?
Smarter minds than mine have addressed the Indians experimenting with Carlos Santana at 3B, but those minds have looked at things like “defense” and “what the Indians need” and “does this make any sense at all.”
But you and I, we are fantasy players and care not for defensive deficiencies or displaced utility infielders. What we care about is whether or not Carlos Santana playing 3B impacts his fantasy value.
It’s tempting, off the bat, to say no. Santana is expected to be the Indians DH and #2 C (regardless of whether or not he adds 3B to the repertoire), and as long as he has C eligibility, he is more valuable as a fantasy backstop than he is as a fantasy 3B.
But, as always, there is more to it than that and using Santana as a part-time or full-time 3B in fantasy is worth looking at.
By wOBA, Steamer projects Santana to be the #4 backstop, tied with Mike Napoli (who really isn’t a catcher any more) and behind Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, and Wilin Rosario. Santana is also expected to accrue more than 600 PA – enough more than Rosario that he could be the third most valuable catcher for fantasy owners. In fact, the Rosario-Santana question, at least according to Steamer, likely comes down to format, as Rosario’s .278 average crushes Santana’s .252, but not as much as Santana’s .366 OBP crushes Rosario’s .316. So Santana is likely the 3rd or 4th best fantasy catcher and if you are in a keeper league and assume Mauer is about to run out of catcher eligibility, you could make an argument for moving Santana up another slot.
At 3B, that .352 wOBA is tied for 7th. He falls behind Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria, Matt Carpenter, and Pablo Sandoval, and is tied with Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Zimmerman. But with Carpenter likely playing 2B in most leagues and Ramirez playing SS, Santana would slot in at 6th. Not too shabby. With Zimmerman’s injury history, Steamer projects him for nearly 100 PA fewer than Santana, too, which is more than enough to break that 6th place tie.
And then there is the value of flexibility. Let’s say you are deciding between Rosario and Santana and are really torn. If you know you have Zimmerman at 3B, wouldn’t you feel better knowing that if (when?) he gets hurt, you can find a backup 3B or C, instead of being stuck searching for just one position? What if you know you can get two decent-but-not-great players (one C, one 3B) with heavy platoon splits? Wouldn’t the added flexibility of Santana be extremely valuable to you? How much is it worth? I don’t know, but it is worth more than 0.
Of course the big issue with any of these plans is that Santana doesn’t actually HAVE 3B eligibility yet and, depending on your format, he may never get it. In ottoneu, he would need 5 starts or 10 games played at the position, and I would not be at all surprised if he manages to hit one of those landmarks, but it might not happen until June or July. If your league is more stringent, you may not get the eligibility at all.
Going into auctions and drafts, I am doing the following:
- First, I am not counting on 3B eligibility. I will not draft Santana specifically to be my 3B.
- I am going to pay close attention the Indians Spring Training lineups. It is one thing to send a guy out there to test out 3B in Winter League, but if he is still playing the position in Arizona, my interest will be piqued.
- I am going to give Santana a slight boost on all my draft boards. He doesn’t go to the top of the list, or suddenly become a 1st round pick, but the potential for added eligibility breaks any ties, adds a couple dollars of value, and just generally makes him more attractive.
If you ignore all of this and take a “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach to Santana and the hot corner, I can’t blame you, nor will I tell you that you are wrong. But giving him a little nudge in your rankings would not be the worst idea. You never know when you might find yourself in need of a potential top-6 3B who can also play catcher.
A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's is the Managing Editor for RotoGraphs, and can be heard on the Keep or Kut Podcast. You can follow him on Bluesky @chadyoung.bsky.social.
“But with Carpenter likely playing 2B in most leagues and Ramirez playing SS,”
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This makes no sense. If you are going to assume Carp is only used as a 2B and Hanley is only used at SS, then obviously you must also assume that Santana should only be used as a C.
That’s fair, but if the question is “what do I get if I use Santana as a 3B?” the chances are you are getting someone top 5-6 rather than 7-8 because of Hanley/Carpenter playing MI positions. If the question is “What do I get using Hanley at 3B?” part of the calculation should be based on the assumption that Santana will be used as catcher. It’s all in how you look at it and what you are trying to evaluate.
In that case I think a much better question would be “if I have Carlos Santana at 3B, where did I screw up my draft?”
or “if i have Santana at 3B, can I trade him to a team without a real catcher, for a better fantasy 3B?”
I actually think one of the take-aways from what I found is that (assuming Santana has 3B eligibility) that is the wrong way to look at it – he’d be a top-5-7 3B if Steamer is to be believed. And that means that unless you are trading him for an elite 3B, you’d be making a mistake. The number of “better fantasy 3B” is pretty limited, and there will not be much incentive for a team to trade you Miggy or Wright for Santana unless their catcher is a black hole and their backup 3B is still a solid top-10 contributor. But I wouldn’t start most “true” 3B over Santana.
Fair enough.
do you assume that most people who play Santana at 3B have a replacement level catcher?
If thats the case then would it not be better to just move Santana to C, pick up a replacement level 3B, and drop your current catcher?
Assuming your league allows trades and free waiver adds, it seems incredibly inefficient to play him at 3B, even if he is one of the top 6-7.
I love to target fantasy catchers who don’t actually catch. Josh Willingham, Pablo Sandoval, and Ryan Doumit have won me leagues simply by offering cheap volume.
There is some anecdotal evidence that moving from catcher helps some players focus more on their offense. I’m basing that on player comments, which as we know, players sometimes think things that are wrong.
Catcher is a physically and mentally demanding job in a way that other positions aren’t. I don’t know Santana’s routine, but some catchers spend a lot of time studying the other team’s hitters. As a 3B, Santana can focus that time on hitting or even rest – at least once he learns his new position well enough. For this reason, both he and Mauer could be fantasy gold.
There is a lesser effect to consider. Two of the league’s top 10 fantasy catchers (really top 3-4 as you point out) won’t actually be catching. They’ll be replaced by two catchers who might be in the top 10 too. Effectively, there is more supply than in years past. That might make it easier for owners in shallow leagues (i.e. 12 team, 1 C) to forgo spending on C entirely. I could see a cleanup hitting Salty going for $1 or even reaching waivers in that format. Pinto and Gomes will be cheap.
And don’t forget McCann, his move to NY should boost both his power and PA.
3b fantasy replacement value has approached MI fantasy replacement value…he’ll still be an asset in long-term leagues even w/out c eligibility as of ’15.
I think there is a VERY low probability that Santana loses C eligibility before 2016 at the earliest. Prior to the 3B experiment, the plan seemed to be for Gomes to be the starting C and Santana to DH/backup Gomes. I’d expect him to catch at least 20-30 games this year. Part of the goal of the flexibility, it seems, is to set the Indians up to NOT carry a backup catcher or CIF, increasing their flexibility to carry their 25 best players, regardless of position. My guess is Santana and Gomes are the only catchers on the roster, which means you can expect to see Carlos behind the plate once a week or so.
I heard an interview with Jordan Bastian, the Indians beat reporter for MLB.com, and he indicated that Santana will be a platoon at third base vs lefties…so he could get 40-50 games there, depending on how he looks there in ST.
I’ve heard the same, Ray, but there is a missing piece, I think. Assuming Santana DH’s daily and plays 3B against lefties (which makes some sense, since you want to get Chiz out of the lineup against southpaws) someone else needs to DH. The best options are David Murphy (who they just signed to be platoon player, not to DH vs. lefties), Mike Aviles (who can hit lefties, but would be a better option at 3B than Santana), or a handful of players competing for roster spots. Those handful of players include David Cooper (a lefty with a slight reverse platoon split in the minors, but a typical split in limited MLB time), Jason Giambi (who is old and does not hit lefties well), David Adams (who does hit lefties, but would be a better 3B than Santana) or Jesus Aguilar (who profiles as the right type of bat to fill this role, but has never played above AA). Maybe I am leaving someone out, maybe not, but it seems to me that your best options are either Aviles at 3B and Santana at DH or Murphy at DH and Santana at 3B. With the Indians featuring 1 heavy GB pitcher (Masterson) and a couple others who rely on balls in play (McAllister, maybe Tomlin, maybe Marcum), I think a good chunk of the time, Aviles will be the better play.
Basically, I think the real value to the Indians is flexibility, substitutions and roster options. I think Santana will get some starts at 3B, almost always against lefties, but not as a true short-side of a platoon with Chisenhall. Based on the rest of the Indians roster, I am just not sure there is the right player to fill in at DH while Chiz sits.
Here is something I would be interested to know. It is often said that catchers develop more slowly than other position players because of the weight of defensive requirements upon their focus and minds.
What did Santana’s offensive numbers look like when he was behind the plate vs. when he was the DH or 1B?
Is he going to to focus more on 3B than hitting (as if he was a catcher) because hes not as used to the position or will his offensive profile look more like when he plays a different position(3B, 1B, or DH)?
Those split might be useful to look when considered how to build Santana’s offensive profile for 2014.
Also, how will his energy be affected throughout the season. He was hotter in the 1st half than the 2nd half and can that be attributed to the amount he was catching vs if he was playing out from behind the plate more often.
Napoli 0 appearances in 2013 at catcher. Hanley 0 appearances in 2013 at 3B. In every league like ever they’re gonna lose those positions. Guess that makes a few 2014 rankings look kinda silly for now.
Good call out on Napoli and Hanley. For my ottoneu rankings, I will be using ottoneu eligibility, but for this, I used Steamer which still appears to be out of date.