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Bullpen Report: March 25, 2014

Spring training is nearing its end (thankfully) and as managers finalize the end of their roster, the last bullpen spots are being decided. Here are a few items from today:

• We learned yesterday that Joakim Soria would be closing games in Texas and now we found out that Neftali Feliz was optioned to Triple-A. From GM Jon Daniels:  “He’s healthy and his work ethic has been solid, but he needs some work and the best place to get him that is in Round Rock right now. I expect he’ll be back as soon as he’s ready to help us.” When that will be I’m not entirely sure, and I don’t know if the Rangers are either. If Feliz is healthy as Daniels says and only throwing 91-93 MPH then he likely won’t be the force that he was the first time he was a closer in Texas. Feliz certainly doesn’t have to touch 100 MPH on his fastball to be effective, but this current version of Feliz isn’t the same pitcher we’re used to seeing. I don’t doubt that Feliz will be back in Texas but I also think that he’ll remain a set up option at best, with Soria holding closing duties for the duration of the season.

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Bullpen Report: March 24, 2014

Spring is finally here and Spring Training is almost gone. The Dodgers and Diamondbacks gave us a little taste (or a tease) but luckily by this time next week the games will count, just like the All-Star Game. There will likely be a few more shakeups to the bullpens as rosters are finalized, which will naturally affect the table below, but the Bullpen Report is back on the grind with daily updates for all your save vulturing needs.

Neftali Feliz just isn’t right and Joakim Soria will begin the season as the closer. I don’t expect the Mexicutioner  Soria to return to his KC level of performance but he should be more than adequate and the competition behind him is basically relievers who have returned to the pen after failed starting campaigns. I assume Feliz will show his face again in Texas but it won’t be in the ninth inning, while Tanner Scheppers joins the rotation and Alexi Ogando moves back into the pen. What I said in the beginning of March still applies now to Soria, except he now has the job: “He wasn’t spectacular [in 2013] as his BB/9 ballooned to a career high 5.32 but he still had a respectable 3.80/3.68/3.56 ERA/FIP/xFIP and more importantly showed that he was healthy. If Soria could cut back his walks to his career norms he will be an intriguing option and arguably the best one for Texas.” With the competition behind him pretty meager and with Feliz not guaranteed to even start the season in Texas, Soria’s job should be secure and there is a chance he could provide really good value for your fantasy team. Read the rest of this entry »


Sleeper Save Targets

At this point so many words have been written about not paying for saves that it’s almost pointless to regurgitate all of that information here.  There is certainly some value to zig when your league is zagging and passing up on drafting closers but for the most part we all want to target those saves sleepers or if all else fails, those dirty, dirty saves.

Our RotoGraphs Reliever Rankings are up and running and that is certainly a fine place to check to target your closers or future closers in drafts but I will dive into some more detail on a few players who come August should be named the team’s closer, have a few saves under his belt or worst case, help your team in the ratio department. Without further ado…

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Bullpen Report: August 27, 2013

• Judging by save totals, Rafael Soriano has had another solid year as he added to his total with save number 34 tonight. However, a little dive into the numbers shows a different story. Soriano’s strikeout rate has tumbled from 9.18 K/9 last year to a mediocre and career low (since his rookie year) 6.79 K/9 this season. Unsurprisingly it’s reflected in his 3.79/3.91/4.17 ERA/FIP/xFIP and 3.86 SIERA which are closer to the marks of an OK reliever, not a top notch closer. Still, saves are saves and Soriano should hold onto the ninth inning for the remainder of the year but the mantra of never paying for saves rings true both in real life and fantasy baseball.

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Bullpen Report: August 26, 2013

Casey Janssen nailed down his 24th save tonight against the Yankees. Sergio Santos was only brought in for one out but he did the job, striking out Alex Rodriguez for his third hold of the year. Janssen’s job isn’t in danger but Santos is pitching pretty well since coming back from injury (3.10 SIERA) and should be first in line if anything were to happen to Janssen. In the meantime, holds or saves+ holds leagues should take note as Santos remains a solid option in that category, particularly in any AL-Only leagues.

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Bullpen Report: August 20, 2013

Rafael Betancourt recorded his 16th save of the year and his first since returning from the disabled list. Betancourt faced the minimum and it looks like he’s back to his the ninth inning job in Colorado. Rex Brothers pitched quite well while Betancourt was out, but barring any injury I’d expect Betancourt to hold onto the job for the remainder of the year.

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Bullpen Report: August 13, 2013

Danny Farquhar’s solid run at closer for the Mariners continued tonight as he earned his fifth save of the year. Although his ERA remains less than ideal at , his 2.07 SIERA is the ninth best mark in the league and the only guys  who can best him are the four relievers mentioned above along with Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon and Koji Uehara. That’s some impressive company and speaks well to Farquhar’s ability. I don’t need to say you should pick him up if he’s available in your league but if you’re in need of saves, strikeouts or ERA, Farquhar is a guy that could give you top tier production without the cost. Also, if you’re looking for a pre-season closer sleeper for next year’s drafts, Farquhar is your man.

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Bullpen Report: August 7, 2013

• As Dave Cameron predicted, Danny Farquhar has regressed and he’s now yet to allow a run in his last eight appearances, including tonight’s scoreless inning for his third save. Farquhar’s 4.95 ERA is certainly misleading as his 1.88 FIP and 2.04 xFIP paint a different picture. Although he’s barely warmed his closer’s seat, I’m going to go out on a limb and change the Mariners to yellow. Farquhar doesn’t have much of a track record in the majors but he has shown some great skills (13.62 K/9) and has done an admirable job in place of Tom Wilhelmsen. Also, considering Wilhelmsen is getting stretched out  to pitch in the rotation, I like Faruhar’s chances of holding onto the job over Yoervis Medina and Oliver Perez.

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Bullpen Report: August 6, 2013

Bobby Parnell and his ailing neck have been placed on the 15-day DL. It was initially not expected to be too serious, but at the moment there isn’t necessarily a timeline for Parnell’s return and surgery remains an option as well. As we mentioned last night, David Aardsma and LaTroy Hawkins are expected to get looks for saves as the Mets mix and match at closer. After Aardsma blew the Mets last save chance, Hawkins was called on for the save tonight and he delivered, pitching around two hits for his first save of the year.  Hawkins hasn’t been anointed closer but expect him to receive the next opportunities until he gives the Mets a reason to make a change.

If the Mets are to mix and match,  the matchup may dictate a Scott Rice opportunity in the ninth. Rice walks way too many batters (5.18 BB/9) but he kills worms at a fantastic rate (58.6% ground ball rate) and he holds lefties to a .222 wOBA. That number rises to an absurd .418 wOBA against right handed hitters making the chances of Rice seeing extended time at closer likely nil (especially if Hawkins keeps converting his chances) but Parnell’s injury certainly makes Rice an intriguing saves + holds option in deep or NL-Only leagues.

• With Tom Wilhelmsen sent to the minors, Carter Capps is coming to Seattle. Capps was a sneaky preseason pick for saves in but the season hasn’t quite gone according to plan as a 6.37 ERA in 35.1 innings brought him a ticket to Tacoma. Capps’ 6.37 ERA is quite unsightly but with a .388 BABIP and 19.6% HR/FB his 3.56 xFIP illustrates he wasn’t pitching quite that terribly. Capps allowed only two earned runs in 11 innings in AAA but actually had worse ratios there than he did struggling in the majors. Capps is currently low on the Mariners bullpen totem pole but he certainly has a chance to make some noise and pitch in more higher leverage innings.

• Josh Fields hasn’t had much success at the major league level thus far in his career, but he looked quite impressive last night recording his first save of the year for Houston. The Astros’ closer situation is very fluid right now  but striking out all four batters you see for the save is a good way to receive the next opportunity. Josh Fields is likely the man right now but Jose Cisnero is still lurking behind.

• Not a bad evening for the back of the Braves bullpen. Jordan Walden and Craig Kimbrel each tossed a perfect inning while striking out the side. Even without Johnny Venters the Braves pen has remained top notch with the best bullpen ERA in baseball (2.41).

Closer Grid:

 

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Brad Ziegler J.J. Putz David Hernandez
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Jordan Walden Scott Downs
Baltimore Jim Johnson Francisco Rodriguez Tommy Hunter
Boston Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Craig Breslow Andrew Bailey
CHI (NL) Kevin Gregg Pedro Strop Blake Parker
CHI (AL) Addison Reed Nate Jones Matt Lindstrom
Cincy Aroldis Chapman J.J. Hoover Sam LeCure Sean Marshall
Cleveland Chris Perez Joe Smith Cody Allen Vinnie Pestano
Colorado Rex Brothers Matt Belisle Mitchell Boggs Rafael Betancourt
Detroit Joaquin Benoit Jose Veras Drew Smyly
Houston Josh Fields Jose Cisnero Wesley Wright
KC Greg Holland Aaron Crow Kelvin Herrera
LAA Ernesto Frieri Dane de la Rosa Kevin Jepsen Robert Coello
LAD Kenley Jansen Paco Rodriguez Ronald Belisario Brian Wilson
Miami Steve Cishek Mike Dunn Chad Qualls
Milwaukee Jim Henderson John Axford Michael Gonzalez
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Casey Fien
NY (NL) LaTroy Hawkins David Aardsma Scott Rice Bobby Parnell
NY (AL) Mariano Rivera David Robertson Joba Chamberlain
Oakland Grant Balfour Ryan Cook Sean Doolittle
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Justin De Fratus Jake Diekman Mike Adams
Pittsburgh Mark Melancon Justin Wilson Tony Watson Jason Grilli
St. Louis Edward Mujica Trevor Rosenthal Randy Choate Jason Motte
SD Huston Street Luke Gregerson Dale Thayer
SF Sergio Romo Jeremy Affeldt Santiago Casilla
Seattle Danny Farquhar Yoervis Medina Oliver Perez Tom Wilhelmsen
TB Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta Jake McGee Jesse Crain
Texas Joe Nathan Tanner Scheppers Jason Frasor
Toronto Casey Janssen Sergio Santos Brett Cecil Steve Delabar
Wash. Rafael Soriano Tyler Clippard Craig Stammen Drew Storen

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


Bullpen Report: August 5, 2013

• The Biogenesis fallout today didn’t have too much of an effect on the Bullpen Report but it did snag one victim of note, Philadelphia Phillies lefty and set up man Antonio Bastardo.  Bastardo wasn’t in the initial Biogenesis rumors but he was handed a 50 game suspension today, effectively ending his season. Bastardo was gaining some traction as Papelbon has been more pedestrian this year but any hopes of him sneaking saves for the Phillies will have to wait until 2014 now.

It’s slim pickings as far as Bastardo’s replacements are concerned but one name to keep an eye on is fellow lefty Jake Diekman. Diekman’s numbers (3.72/4.13 FIP/xFIP; 7.11 K/9) aren’t great, but as a lefty in the late innings for Philly, he could be in line for a holds boost.

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