Thanks to some comments we have updated a few down ballot spots on the grid. The closing chairs all remain the same but the Marlins bridge to A.J.Ramos (David Phelps and Kyle Barraclough) along with a few other situations have been changed. As always – continue to let us know where we have done you wrong.

Onto the games…

• Tony Cingrani entered the game against the Mets with one out in the seventh, suggesting there is a closer carousel in Cincinnati. Cingrani allowed a triple to Curtis Granderson and gave up the go ahead run after David Wright hit a two-out single, knocking in the Grandy Man. Caleb Cotham then entered in the bottom of the eighth and struck out two batters. It’s really anyone’s guess who will receive the next save chance but it looks like Caleb Cotham, Tony Cingrani, J.J. Hoover, Blake Wood and even Ross Ohlendorf could be in line. I would stay away unless you’re desperate for saves and if you do roster one of the Reds options, I would recommend stashing them on the bench as waiting for this situation to figure itself could hurt your ERA.

• In mop-up duty in the eighth Drew Storen came on and allowed four hits and three earned runs, raising his ERA to 9.39. Woof. Storen won’t continue to have a 22% HR/FB ratio and a 53.3% LOB% all year but he can’t keep this up if he wants to see important innings. Brett Cecil hasn’t been much better of late either with a 5.19/4.12/4.39 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line of his own. I think the Blue Jays will allow these two a chance to redeem themselves but if the free fall continues, look for Jesse Chavez (2.35 ERA and a 12/1 K/BB in 7.2 innings) to move into a setup role.

• A day after recording a one-out save, Alex Colome only needed to get two outs for his fifth save of the year. Erasmo Ramirez threw a perfect seventh and eighth, handing the ball off to Xavier Cedeno (L) to get out the tough lefty, Chris Davis before letting Colome finish the job. The Rays have allowed Cedeno to pitch crucial innings, calling him on to get tough lefties but he’s never been as effective against right-handed hitters (.332 wOBA against righties and.222 wOBA against lefties in 2015) so I would still put Erasmo Ramirez ahead of him for now. However, with Brad Boxberger cleared to resume baseball activities, it won’t be long (mid-May) until everyone is moved down the chain.

• Jepsen blew a one-run lead against the Indians on a Mike Napoli homer and now has three blown saves on the year. Glen Perkins is still on the shelf with a sore shoulder but hopes he can begin throwing in a week. Until Perkins is actually throwing on the side, it’s tough to give a timeline on his return but with a sore shoulder and his checkered injury past, I wouldn’t rely on a quick return. I still expect Jepsen to see the ninth but the seat is getting warmer. Alex Meyer isn’t near saves as he was just called up but if he does well in the pen in Minnesota he could make some late inning noise.

• On a positive note for Jepsen owners, Cody Allen gave up four baserunners and an earned run giving Jepsen a win for the second night in a row. Cody Allen had an ERA north of 11 last April and didn’t lose his job but he was also still striking batters out and largely getting unlucky. Allen’s swinging strike rate is still above average, but down from last year’s mark as is his average fastball velocity which isn’t a good sign. The sky isn’t falling, especially after a clean save last night but Allen doesn’t have the same wiggle room as he did before or last year.

• Jeanmar Gomez gave up a two-out hit but finished the scoreless inning for his fifth save on the year. Hector Neris pitched a clean eighth with two strikeouts and he might be the new setup man in Philly. On the year Neris has a 0.75/2.08/1.89 pitching line with an impressive 20 strikeouts against four walks in his 11 innings pitched. Whether or not Neris will keep up a 22.8% swinging strike rate, he still seems like a solid resource for strikeouts and the occasional hold for the Phillies.

• Quick Hits: The Mets won their fifth game in a row and for the third straight day, Jeurys Familia recorded the save. Expect Familia to have the night off if a save chance arises tomorrow and look for Addison Reed or Hansel Robles to get the opportunity in his place. Hector Rondon (4) recorded a save as well.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

A few quick notes from Sunday:

• Jake McGee had a bad night allowing five earned in less than an inning. Every dog has it’s (bad) day and I don’t think McGee’s job is in danger but we’ll keep Colorado yellow for now. Miguel Castro who pitched himself into setup duty was put on the DL with an apparent non-serious shoulder injury. Chad Qualls and Boone Logan both move up a spot with McGee still ahead provided he doesn’t repeat last night’s performance.

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• Kevin Jepsen entered the ninth inning in a tied game this afternoon but a Yadiel Rivera double (who advanced to third on an error) and a Scooter Gennett RBI single gave the Brewers the lead and the eventual loss for Jepsen, his third of the year.  It’s only been a few games but Jepsen has been about as effective as he was last year (3.81 xFIP in 2016 and 4.04 in 2015) but his 4.05 ERA doesn’t look as shiny as the 2.33 ERA he had last year. This wasn’t a particularly bad outing for Jepsen so no change is coming but if he continues to have a few more outings like today – Trevor May is someone to keep an eye on.

• Jeremy Jeffress needed only seven pitches for another scoreless inning today keeping his ERA at 0.00 and saving his fifth game on the year. Jeffress kills worms quite well with a career 57.6% ground ball percentage and although his K/9 sits at a less than stellar 6.75, his swinging strike rate is 14.3%, up from last year (11.4%). It’s certainly a small sample but if Jeffress can generate more whiffs while keeping the ball on the ground he could have a sneaky solid season. I wouldn’t expect a league leading save total on the Brewers but he’s hitting on a lot of the bullet points you would want to see.

• Jumbo Diaz was demoted today with Robert Stephenson getting the call up to the big leagues. J.J. Hoover hasn’t been effective at all this year and gave up another two earned this evening, but the competition behind him hasn’t been stiff enough to replace him, yet. I’ve upgraded the grid below to include Caleb Cotham who came over from New York in the Aroldis Chapman trade and hasn’t allowed a run in eight appearances this year, including a perfect inning today. I’ve also upgraded Tony Cingrani, who started the ninth inning tonight getting the first out before handing it over to Hoover, as the next-in-line. This pecking order, including J.J. Hoover, remains red hot especially with Bryan Price saying that he will sleep on the decision about J.J. Hoover as closer. I would go for Cingrani then Cotham if you’re looking to grab a quick save as I think Hoover will be removed from his role, but it’s really close to a toss-up.

• Quick Hits: Cody Allen gave up one run but earned his fourth save of the year. After a day off due to a blister issue, Roberto Osuna was back in form for a four-out save. Wade Davis walked and struck out a batter for his sixth save. Alex Colome closed his second door of the season, throwing a perfect 10th with two strikeouts. Ryan Madson was called on in the 11th to secure the lead for the A’s and it certainly looks like he’s becoming the full on closer. Sean Doolittle threw a scoreless eighth in a tie game and I’ve upgraded the A’s to yellow on the grid. John Barbato allowed the first run of his season in his two innings of work but he still looks like a keeper in the Yankees pen. He won’t be able to leap frog Dellin Betances or Andrew Miller who both threw scoreless innings tonight (continuing their perfect seasons ERA-wise) but he’s another ratio and strikeout helper to rely on. The Yankees might have the best bullpen in the league even if Aroldis Chapman never throws a pitch.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• Quick Notes from Sunday: Ryan Madson received and finished another save opportunity last night against the Royals earning his fourth save on the year. No announcement on a change has been made but Madson has received more save chances than Doolittle thus far. I’m going to put Madson ahead on the red hot grid for now but we might be looking at a quasi-committee of sorts. Alex Colome earned his first save for the Rays and should be an option for saves until Brad Boxberger returns. Jonathan Papelbon blew his first save of the year. Jason Grilli also blew the save but Arodys Vizcaino wasn’t available and this only helps Vizcaino’s standing in the Braves pen.

And on to today’s games:

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• After a four game slide Terry Collins didn’t play around today calling on Jeurys Familia for a five-out save. Familia answered the call pitching around a couple of hits for his second save of the year. Hansel Robles got the last two outs of the seventh (both via strikeout) and Jerry Blevins got the call to start the eighth inning with the left-handed Ichiro and Christian Yelich due up. Addison Reed still figures to be the main eighth inning set up man with Blevins playing the matchups. Although he doesn’t have the “closer experience” like Reed, Robles has some real strikeout potential and could end the year in a more prominent role behind Familia.

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• Although he nailed down the last two save opportunities for the Phillies, Jeanmar Gomez has not yet been named closer with Pete Mackanin saying “I don’t want to jump to conclusions here […] Let’s keep playing it out until we see what happens.” Mackanin won’t say it, but I will – Gomez is the closer in Philadelphia. He may not have a long leash if he were to start struggling but David Hernandez and company likely won’t be seeing the next opportunity.

• Craig Kimbrel had a forgettable night for the Red Sox. Entering the ninth inning in a tie game Kimbrel allowed three runs with Chris Davis taking him deep for a 449 foot, three run homer. Kimbrel’s velocity (97.6 mph) was right in line with what you would expect from him and he still ranks among the elite closers in the game. Keep walking, nothing left to see here except future saves and loads of strikeouts.

• Fernando Rodney was able to shoot his first arrow of the year, closing the door on the Phillies today. Rodney is unlikely to be a safe haven for saves all year, whether it’s due to poor performance and a role change or a strong performance and a mid-season trade but owners should be happy with the clean save nonetheless. Rodney is certainly secure for now but Brandon Maurer is the guy to own as a handcuff.

• Jumbo Diaz received the ball in the eighth inning tonight and blew the lead for the Reds. It’s early on but Diaz’ 3.86/6.64/4.95 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line is certainly less than impressive. J.J. Hoover isn’t a stud by any means but with Diaz and Tony Cingrani (who gave up two runs of his own for the loss) struggling his job remains secure.

•Quick Hits: David Robertson threw a scoreless ninth for his third save of the year. Robertson’s ERA was a little inflated last year at 3.41 but his underlying numbers were strong as normal and he remains a great option. After Chris Davis gave the O’s the lead, Britton pitched around a Mookie Betts solo shot for his third save as well. Jonathan Papelbon (4), Mark Melancon (3) and Hector Rondon (2) also recorded clean saves tonight.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• As expected, the Astros looked towards Luke Gregerson with their first save chance of the year and he rewarded the team with a clean save, throwing a perfect inning along with a strikeout against the Yankees. Ken Giles threw in the eighth allowing a solo shot to Didi Gregorious but otherwise looked effective, striking out two. Giles’ velocity (96.4 mph) was in line with last season and I would expect him and Gregerson to comprise a darn effective end of game tandem moving forward.

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• It seemed like a safe guess that Ken Giles would be closing games in Houston after the Astros gave up some real talent (Mark Appel, Vincent Velasquez and others) for him this offseason but A.J. Hinch announced that Luke Gregerson will be the closer to start the year. Baseball wise this might be a solid decision, especially if Giles can be used more freely in the seventh or eighth innings in higher leverage situations.  Gregerson is no slouch though, having saved 31 games in 36 tries last year with a 3.10/2.86/2.71 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. For what it’s worth, Hinch said that Gregerson will be the “primary closer”, which doesn’t suggest a committee but Giles could see save opportunities as well.

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• Well it didn’t take long for us to have our first closer controversy in 2016 as John Gibbons announced that Roberto Osuna will be their closer on Opening Day. After trading Ben Revere for Drew Storen this offseason, it was assumed that Storen would be in the driver’s seat for the closing gig in Toronto but 2015 rookie sensation Roberto Osuna should take the job and run with it again. Adding insult to injury, after learning about his demotion from the closer’s chair, Storen allowed two runs in one inning of work yesterday. For those of you who had their drafts already, I’m sorry for your loss and you should try to convince the commissioner to hold the draft closer to Opening Day. For those of you who have not had their draft, please bump up Osuna’s value. While there is very stiff competition at the top of the relief rankings (these are a bit outdated and we hope to have an update soon), Osuna was darn impressive as a 20-year old and I could see him touching the top ten by the end of 2016.

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This was my first foray into the Bold Predictions (emphasis on bold) so let’s see how I did:

1.) Nathan Eovaldi breaks out in New York.

Eovaldi lowered his ERA and had a pretty 14-3 record but a 4.20 ERA and only 121 strikeouts in 154 innings pitched does not constitute as a break out. In spite of increased average fastball velocity (96.7 mph compared to 95.7 mph in 2014) Eovaldi’s ability to miss bats barely improved. His SwStr% rose a few fractions of a point and his K% jumped a point and a half to 18% but both marks are below the league average. I still hold out hope that Eovaldi can break out in the near future but it wasn’t in 2015.

0 for 1

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