I was at a bit of a loss as to who or what to write about for today’s piece when I sat down to work yesterday. Per the usual, I headed to the leaderboards in search of inspiration. I opted to look at the PITCHf/x velocity data for the first half and second half for starting pitchers who threw a minimum of 40 innings in each half. The usual suspects sat atop the leaderboard, but one big mover from the first half to the second half was Wily Peralta.

In the first half, Peralta ranked tied for 21st in four-seam fastball velocity (94.0 mph) and tied for 16th in two-seam fastball velocity (94.2 mph). Peralta’s a hard thrower, so his ranks weren’t a surprise. What did surprise me were sizable gains in velocity in the second half. Down the stretch, Milwaukee’s righty rose to sixth in average four-seam fastball velocity adding more than a tick averaging 95.2 mph and ranking second in two-seam fastball velocity (95.5 mph). Positive results followed the uptick in cheddar for the 27-year-old. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, Anthony Rendon bounced back quite nicely from an injury-shortened, disappointing 2015 campaign. He raked in 2014, and 2016 was merely a return to form. The quartet at the top of the hot corner is clear as day, but after that, there’s plenty of room for debate as how the next tier should be ranked. According to the NFBC’s ADP data, Kyle Seager (66.70), Matt Carpenter (71.74), Todd Frazier (74.02), Adrian Beltre (83.70), Rendon (91.72) and Alex Bregman (92.13) round out the top-10 at third base, and Jose Ramirez adds 11th third basemen to the top-100 picks checking in with an ADP of 95.43.

Rendon is the ninth ranked third baseman in terms of ADP at NFBC, and over at Fantasy Pros, he checks in 11th in expert consensus ranking (Jonathan Villar is third base eligible for Fantasy Pros ranking purposes). I’m a believer in Rendon posting a top-10 fantasy line at the hot corner in 2017, and at their respective ADPs, he stands out as my target at third base if I don’t end up with one of the Big Four — or if I end up with Manny Machado or Kris Bryant and opt to use the former at shortstop and take advantage of the latter’s outfield eligibility. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday night, the Rays and Dodgers agreed to a deal sending Logan Forsythe to Los Angeles for pitching prospect Jose De Leon. Jeff Sullivan wrote about Forsythe’s and Brian Dozier’s similarities, and Dave Cameron analyzed the trade. The deal leaves a hole at the keystone position in Tampa Bay. Paul Sporer briefly touched on the deal opening up some playing time for Nick Franklin, “if they don’t bring someone else in.”

The current depth chart on the Rays’ team website which is projected by MLB.com shows Franklin atop the heap at second base, and Bill Chastain of MLB.com speculates Franklin and Tim Beckham “appear to be the most likely candidates to fill in at second base.” Chastain added that Rays senior vice president of baseball operations and general manager Erik Neander, “would not commit to one name.” Of the two names suggested, Franklin is the far more exciting option.

They also setup nicely for a platoon with the switch-hitting Franklin hitting right-handed pitching much better than left-handed pitching and Beckham fairing much better against southpaws than right-handed hurlers. With a clearer path to playing time, Franklin looks like a highly intriguing dart throw at a very minimal investment (NFBC’s draft data has Franklin’s ADP at 523.16 with a minimum pick of 451 and a maximum of 604), though, it’s important to note his position eligibility will be quite different around the industry. Read the rest of this entry »

Power often comes with punch outs. When homers aren’t tied to strikeouts, that’s usually the profile of an elite hitter. In 2016, only six players with more than 250 plate appearances recorded a Hard% north of 40% and a K% south of 20%. One of those six players, David Ortiz, is now retired. Joining Big Papi in that group of hitters was Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Carpenter, Jose Bautista and Kendrys Morales.

Using the NFBC ADP data, Donaldson and Cabrera require roughly a top-15 pick for their services with the former carrying an 11.16 ADP and the latter sitting at 15.58. Carpenter has an ADP of 70.58 and Bautista’s ADP is 118.16 after a down year. Lagging way behind this group is Morales with an ADP of 178.21, a minimum pick of 116 and a maximum pick of 213. Yes, Morales’ utility only eligibility at most fantasy sports sites is less than ideal and should be baked into his ADP, but it looks like there’s plenty of wiggle room for a profit. Read the rest of this entry »

This time of year, I love perusing the NFBC ADP data and identifying potential late-round targets. For the sake of using a round number as a cutoff, I opted to focus on players who were select after pick 300 on average. Three players stood out as especially intriguing to me. Read the rest of this entry »

The NFBC has ADP data up, and in the hopes of finding a player or players to write about this week, I combed over their draft data. It took until just the third page of drafted players to find a couple of players who sparked my interest. Miguel Sano is carrying an ADP of 114.00 with a minimum pick of 73 and a maximum pick of 157. Teammate Byron Buxton is even cheaper on average with an ADP of 145.33, a minimum selection of 104 and a maximum selection of 187. Both players possess their fair share of risk, but both have ample upside I fully intend on chasing at their respective current investment costs. Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Moore didn’t post jaw-dropping numbers in 2016, but the year should be viewed as a success. He had a rocky 2015 season coming back from Tommy John surgery, and he set a new career high with 198.1 innings split between the Rays (130.0 innings) and Giants (68.1 innings) in 2016. Staying healthy enough to knock on the door of 200 innings is a success in its own right. The surface stats and ERA estimators weren’t great, and he finished 60th among starting pitchers, but I’ll once again be firing up the hype machine for the once highly-touted prospect. Read the rest of this entry »

Paul tackled the top 15 options at second base. Just missing the cut but earning an honorable mention was Devon Travis. Since reaching the bigs in 2015, he’s been a highly productive offensive player at the keystone position tallying a .301/.342/.469 line with a 119 wRC+. The biggest knock on Travis is that a shoulder injury that required off-season surgery last November has limited him to almost exactly one full season (163 games and 670 plate appearances) of work in The Show. The good news for Travis’ outlook going forward is that once he made his season debut for the Blue Jays on May 25th, he stayed healthy and avoided being bit by the injury bug the remainder (he did suffer a knee injury in the postseason that required an arthroscopic procedure, but he’s expected to be fully ready by spring training). Also, the further removed from his DL activation, the better Travis hit. Read the rest of this entry »

Eugenio Suarez served as the shortstop for the Reds for 96 games in 2015, but an off-season trade of Todd Frazier resulted in Suarez sliding over to the hot corner this year. He earned an awful defensive grade at shortstop, but he was an asset with his glove at the less demanding defensive position. Moving to a corner put greater pressure on his bat, but he did enough — coupled with his positive defensive contributions — to play in 159 games and serve as an everyday player for the duration of the year. The volume (627 plate appearances) helped push Suarez to a double-double (21 homers and 11 steals) with useful run production contributions (78 runs and 70 RBI). In a little over 250 games played with the Reds, the 25-year-old has been remarkably consistent in many ways. Read the rest of this entry »

A prototypical mashing first baseman Josh Bell is not. The 24-year-old made his debut in The Show this year and played in 45 games. Due to Starling Marte missing most of September, Bell split his playing time between first base (23 games played and 19 starts) and the outfield (16 games played and 14 starts). At sites with looser playing eligibility rules, Bell will have the added benefit of holding outfield eligibility next year. He graded out terribly defensively in the outfield, and his glove work was a negative at first base, too. Couple his bad defense with his negative contributions on the bases, and despite tallying a 113 wRC+, he earned a -0.4 WAR. Usually defense and base running — beyond stolen bases — don’t come up in fantasy pieces, but I bring both up as they’ll impact Bell’s playing time in 2017 if he’s not able to make improvements. He was no stranger to being lifted from starts early last year, and it was especially maddening in daily fantasy baseball. The good news for Bell is that returning John Jaso was a poor defender in his first season as a full-time first baseman after tallying just five innings at the position in the majors before 2016. Let’s take a look at Bell’s bat. Read the rest of this entry »