Charlie Morton’s increased velocity in an injury-shortened 2016 coupled with him retaining the improved cheddar in the spring created a bit of buzz entering the year. I was bullish about his 2017 outlook, and thus far, he’s done nothing to diminish my optimistic outlook for the season. Digging into the numbers after a half-dozen starts reveals more good than bad. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s foolish to put much stock in spring training numbers, but one of the spring’s hottest hitters has carried over a revamped approach and spring training success to the regular season. Now, I believe he’s an ownable commodity in mixed leagues as shallow as 12 teams if they use a corner infielder and/or a utility spot. The second player I’m covering this week wasn’t who I initially had in mind in the same outfield. While checking in on slugger Jorge Soler, I found myself intrigued by his rookie teammate who was recently promoted to The Show.

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Non-closing relievers typically don’t get much fanfare outside of leagues that use holds or holds combined with saves. Occasionally handcuffs to shaky closers will get a slight uptick in ownership in anticipation of said shaky closer faltering and losing the gig, but otherwise, non-closing relievers are deemed a waste of a roster spot outside of extremely deep leagues. The following quartet of relievers stand out to me as being worthy of ownership in 12-team mixed leagues or larger that don’t feature shallow benches. Chris Devenski’s relief excellence has bumped his ownership up significantly, so he’s not included. However, another multi-inning reliever is off to his own strong start and owned in under 10% of CBS, ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. A couple former closers and a lefty relief ace join him in this week’s piece. Read the rest of this entry »

At the beginning of the year, a couple of the things I’m keeping close tabs on for hitters are lineup spot and platoon situation. If a player hits in a better lineup spot than expected, they immediately get a value bump. That concept isn’t Earth shattering, and Mike Podhorzer discussed some players whose value changed due to batting order here and here.

A player who shares less playing time than expected gets a value boost, too — under most circumstances. If you’re in a league that allows daily lineup changes, there’s zero downside for a player playing more than expected since you can conceivably still sit them in their weaker split situation. If, however, that player makes strides against the handedness of pitcher they typically struggle against, the additional playing time can pay off in the form of more counting stats. Having kept tabs on those things during the opening week of the season, a trio of players stand out as better options than I expected entering the year. Read the rest of this entry »

As the season is nearly upon us, there are picks abound around the baseball industry. RotoGraphs partakes in the picks fun, too. I personally enjoy putting my picks out to be ̶p̶r̶a̶i̶s̶e̶d̶ criticized. In fact, it’s so enjoyable I’ll open myself up to further criticism by sharing my runners-up for each category. The criteria for each category is listed below the table and mirrors the criteria used for the RotoGraphs Staff Picks. Read the rest of this entry »

A couple of weeks ago I checked in on some hitting performances in the spring. This go round, I’m going to turn my attention to pitching. I don’t believe spring training stats carry much weight in fantasy evaluations, and that’s even more true for pitchers. Often times pitchers will speak of working on a weak pitch or trying to regain feel for a secondary offering. With that in mind, I wouldn’t advise freaking out if a pitcher is getting knocked around. Still, a good spring from a pitcher coming back from an injury or fighting for a rotation spot can be viewed as a plus. Read the rest of this entry »

Almost exactly one year ago I tried my hand at 10 bold predictions with mixed results. This year, I aim to improve my results without watering down the boldness of the predictions. There’s an optimistic vibe to my 10 predictions this year as only one calls for a disappointing performance this season.

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It’s not wise to put too much stock in spring training performances. Having said that, there are games being played and stats being generated. Some guys are coming back from injuries, others are tinkering with mechanics and many are fighting for roster spots or playing time. With that in mind, a few players were of interest to me when combing over spring training stats. Read the rest of this entry »

Maybe it’s shiny-new-toy syndrome. Perhaps it’s the poor batting average (.246 last year and .224 through 1,099 plate appearances in the Majors). It could also be a sizable platoon split that’s resulted in limited opportunities to date against southpaws. Whatever the reason or reasons, Joc Pederson’s ADP in NFBC drafts is just outside of pick 200 (201.95), and he’s barely cracking the top-50 outfielders selected (47th).

At his current cost, the soon-to-be 25-year-old outfielder has to merely repeat his 2016 production to deliver on his ADP after ranking as the 44th most valuable outfielder last year. It seems crazy that his ADP doesn’t bake in any potential improvement, and there are reasons beyond his youth to buy into major gains being made by the center fielder in 2017. Read the rest of this entry »

This time of year, it’s not only about identifying likely draft-day targets, it’s also about identifying players who represent poor values and are better to bypass selecting. A top-100 pick is too rich for my blood for a sophomore catcher with some scary underlying numbers and other check marks in the cons column. Power is the calling card of another sophomore, and he calls a great ballpark home for accentuating that skill. Furthermore, he might be more than a one-dimensional slugger. Read the rest of this entry »