The Starting Pitcher Episode (Part II) of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

Strategy Section

• Simple analytics vs. advanced analytics.
• Offseason information – what is noise, what is real?
• Blind spots of projections for pitchers.
• 2021 Season
  • 6-man roations
  • Starting pitcher inning limits
  • The Tampa Bay Rays
  • What if the season is delayed?
  • Ramp-up from 2020 short season

Starting Pitcher Strategy

• General strategy
• Pitchers that we would more likely roster in auctions vs. snake drafts (& vice versa).

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The 2021 ATC Projections have arrived at FanGraphs!

The Average Total Cost projection system (ATC) gets its name from the fact that it “averages” many other projection systems together. ATC also happens to be my initials.

ATC is a “smart” projection aggregation model. While most other aggregation systems typically apply equal weight to all underlying data sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. The method is similar to what Nate Silver does with his political forecasting at www.fivethirtyeight.com. Read more about how ATC works in last year’s introductory ATC article.

ATC’s advanced methods have paid off. Last year, FantasyPros ranked ATC as the most accurate baseball projections, even more accurate than their own. Annually, I conduct my own projections review using a game theory method, which has consistently shown that ATC has outperformed other projections. You can read the results of last year’s study here.

Starting this year, ATC will include three new volatility metrics to be described later in this article. Aside from introducing the concepts behind these new metrics, we will also discuss how a fantasy manager might use them in practice.

First, let’s quickly remind everyone on where to find the ATC projections at FanGraphs.

Viewing ATC

There are currently three ways to view and utilize the ATC projections on the site.

• Full Projections
• Individual Player Pages
• Auction Calculator

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The Middle Infield Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Rick Wolf

Strategy Section

• Fantasy Baseball Partners
  • Advantages & Disadvantages
  • What makes a good partnership?
  • How to divide up tasks & responsibilities.

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The Starting Pitcher Episode (Part I) of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Paul Sporer

Strategy Section

• How many pitchers will throw 200 innings in 2021?
• Pitcher ramp up from the 2020 short season.
• Pitchers returning from injury (Chris Sale / Noah Syndergaard / Luis Severino)
  • How do you project innings for 2021?
  • How do you assess their fantasy value?
  • What leagues are these players more (or less) valuable?
• Super Elite Pitchers (Jacob deGrom / Gerrit Cole / Shane Bieber)
  • How far should the trio be pushed up in drafts?
  • Which hitters should be drafted ahead of the super elite starters?
    • Does the format make a difference?
• Pitching Strategy in 2021 – Snake Drafts vs. Auctions

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The Corner Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Derek Carty

Strategy Section

• The key components of what goes into a credible set of player projections.
• Incorporating the 2020 short season into 2021 projections.
• THE BAT vs. THE BAT X

ATC Projections

• Overview of ATC
• New for ATC – Inter-Projection Volatility

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The FAAB episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Todd Zola of Mastersball, ESPN & RotoWire

Park Factors

• What are park factors, and how they are calculated? What do they capture?
• The effect of the humidor.
• Park factors for unknown situations.
• Park factors for free agents.

Projections

• How projections are treating the uncertainty surrounding the DH (for the National League) in the upcoming season.

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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Wayne Randazzo – The Voice of the New York Mets

• Broadcasting in 2020
• Lindor/Carrasco trade
• Pete Alonso/Dom Smith and the Designated Hitter
• J.D. Davis/Brandon Nimmo as starters
• Trade for George Springer?
• Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo & the bullpen
• Minor League prospect impact for 2021
• Steven Matz
• Most underrated player on the ball club
• Most exciting moments of Wayne’s broadcasting career

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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Randy Dobnak, Starting Pitcher on the Minnesota Twins

Interview

• The current offseason
• The affect of COVID on minor league players
• Innings limits in 2021
• Innings per start trends
• Players & Social Media
• The impact of fans
• Pitching coaches

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The market premium episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN

Strategy Section

• How to use and adjust projections
  • What are the key adjustments that are most often made?
  • When should you diverge from projections?
  • How to adjust player rankings.
  • How to stress test playing time.

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The dynasty episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ian Kahn of RotoWire

Strategy Section

• Trading
  • Trading Philosophy – Dynasty & Redraft
  • 2 for 1 trades – Is it best to acquire the best player in the deal?

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