Beat the Shift Podcast – Market Premium Episode w/ Tristan Cockcroft

The market premium episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN

Strategy Section

  • How to use and adjust projections
    • What are the key adjustments that are most often made?
    • When should you diverge from projections?
    • How to adjust player rankings.
    • How to stress test playing time.

Market Premium Section

  • General Concept Introduction
  • Market Premium / Market Discount seen by position:
    • Closers (& Saves)
    • Starting Pitchers
    • Catchers
    • Middle Infielders
    • Corner Infielders
  • Market Premium / Market Discount seen by statistic:
    • Homeruns
    • Stolen Bases
  • Adalberto Mondesi

Pound the Power or Reach for Speed?

How the uncertainty of the 2021 season might affect your drafts.


  • Who will have the highest Runs + RBI totals in 2021?

Injury Update – Reuven gives us the injury updates.


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Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. His ATC Projections were ranked as the #1 most accurate projection system in 2019. Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY.

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Ariel CohenAlex Recent comment authors
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Great episode. As your grandfather said, something is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. So I’m not clear how to draw the line between what is the “proper” price and what is the market’s premium? As in how do you calculate premium where the price is 100% market-driven? For example, let’s say I know based on AAV z-score calculations, the market pays 25 cents (not a real number) per steal. Assuming I’m not going to decide to punt steals, how do you calculate premium? Is the proper valuation 20 cents per steal so the premium is 20% or is it 15 cents per steal so a 67% premium?