I am grateful to say that Opening day is finally here! Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count in the standings. Though the season will start a week later than expected, and despite a shorter spring training with an intense “hot stove” period – baseball normalcy is on the horizon.
The 2022 draft season was unique; it was bifurcated with a clear demarcation point in time. There was the period during the lockout, and the period post-lockout. Unfortunately, many of our fantasy baseball drafts and auctions this year were still shifted to virtual events. But all may be forgotten quickly after a full slate of fifteen games appear on the docket this coming weekend.
As our tradition over here at RotoGraphs, it is now time to share our bold predictions with you. This year will be my 5th straight year of sharing with you a few unlikely events – that I believe have the chance to come true.
As usual, the ATC Projections have helped shape much of what is to come in this article. A few predictions come from my own personal analysis on the player, or of a team situation. Other nuggets arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right.
These are bold predictions, not crazy predictions. I am not going to predict the impossible. Myles Straw will not lead the majors in homers. Miguel Sano will not contend for a batting title. Greg Holland will not win 20 games. Those would not be bold predictions – those would be impossible ones.
My definition of a bold prediction is one that is some 10-30% likely. That is to say, they should roughly lie in the 70th to 90th range of percentile possible outcomes. If done right, one should expect to hit on at least one tenth but not more than one third of all bold predictions in the long-term. Any more outlandish a prediction would be miraculous, while any more probable would be too easy a guess.
Some bold predictions may be more likely than others, but all should go against the majority opinion. The point here is to call attention to a few undervalued (or overvalued) bets by the market. The aim is to focus on (or away from) a particular player or situation. Of course, the goal is also to have some fun!
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