Half of Starling Marte’s fly balls have gone for home runs. That’s 10 fly balls, five of which have left the park. A HR/FB sitting at a round 50 percent, more than triple his career rate. As if an extra nugget of impressiveness was needed, four of Marte’s home runs have come at PNC Park, which was the worst park for right-handed power last season. Of course, when you’re averaging 424.4 feet per homer, park factors aren’t as important.

Yes, the necessary and annoying caveat: It’s early! After all, three other players have a HR/FB of 40 percent or better. Most numbers this early don’t mean much. But this one could mean something for Marte. Five homers matches his total through the first four months last season.

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Being a lefty myself, I know how odd things can get. I may as well borrow Barry Bonds’ elbow pad when sitting at a table crowded full of righties. Writing in pen equals smearing. EVERY TIME. Don’t even get me started on right-handed scissors or three-ring binders. Living through stuff like this, it makes sense left-handed pitchers often create some interesting situations.

We’re still early enough in the season where strange-looking numbers are easy to find. One that caught my eye is the abnormally high number of plate appearances some batters have against lefties, specifically the Royals and Indians, thanks to their schedules. I’ve picked some players from those clubs whose value in the first two weeks may have shifted thanks to seeing a much higher rate of their plate appearances against lefties than normal. For reference, about 27 percent of total plate appearances last season came against left-handers. Lefty-hitting Robinson Cano led the way with 38 percent of his total plate appearances against lefties. Among right-handed hitters, Brian Dozier led the way with 27 percent.

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Early-season baseball is a treacherous time. Though sprinkled with the classic “take it with a grain of salt” disclaimer, spring analysis remains most effective for misleading fantasy owners. Then there’s the first week of games. Show anyone 20 at-bats as a season total and perception skewing is almost a foregone conclusion. These aren’t small sample sizes, they’re dangerous sample sizes. As we all go on trying to avoid doing anything too crazy, too early, here are five interesting things from the season’s first five days:

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Faced with the dejecting reality that it’s been two weeks and my Bold Predictions are already falling apart at the seams, I stand at a crossroads. Play it safe and hope the internet simply forgets about the aforementioned Bold Predictions (and perhaps stop linking to them), or perch myself squarely out on several more limbs. Obviously I’m heading out on more limbs.

Really this is a combination of two factors. One, most of you have drafted at this point because baseball is two days (!) away. Two, it’s not very thought-provoking to say Giancarlo Stanton will lead the NL in home runs. Thus the non-obvious hitting league leaders was born, and it’s exactly what it sounds like. I’ll predict the league leader for each category, discounting what I deem to be the most obvious pick or picks.
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It’s been quite the offseason for Michael Saunders. He was traded, then had knee surgery. Then there were reports he might be ready for Opening Day. Now there’s news he will definitely not be ready for Opening Day. Even with that latest bit, he’s worth an investment for a few reasons.

Saunders has some power. He hit 19 home runs in 139 games in 2012. Since that was the highest HR/FB rate he’s produced and his batted ball distance was higher that year than in the two following, 19 feels like a good upside total. The move to Toronto will help since Rogers Centre boosts left-handed power and Safeco Field slightly suppresses it.

Saunders has some speed. He stole 21 bases in 2012 and 13 in 2013. He was much less effective last season, stealing four bases in nine attempts. Since he’s 28 and has shown speed every other season, I’m not going to buy his speed has suddenly dried up.

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Writing on Friday is tough for Bold Predictions as my RotoGraphs colleagues gradually picked off many of my predictions one by one through the week. Don’t feel too bad for me, I still found plenty that will probably come back to haunt me in a few months (or sooner!).

1. Jorge Soler will hit at least 33 home runs

Going with 30 home runs didn’t feel quite bold enough since Steamer pegs Soler for 24 and the Fans call for 26. So… 33 home runs! I think he compares especially well to Justin Upton, whose 70-pick premium over Soler in NFBC ADP feels quite steep. Check out his ISO numbers last season for a hint at his power upside: .446 in Double-A, .336 in Triple-A and .281 in the majors.

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It’s time to talk about Brett Lawrie and Justin Smoak yet again. These two have been through the spin cycle from hyped prospects, to busts, to post-hype sleepers, to post-hype busts. The majority of the fantasy community appears to have moved on from Smoak and is close to doing so on Lawrie. This is exactly the reason they’re interesting again. Rock-bottom prices (Lawrie is ranked at 272 in the RotoGraphs group top 300 and Smoak is unranked) and a change in scenery for both bring the slightest glimmer of hope.

Brett Lawrie

Sadly, this may be the last season the Standard Brett Lawrie Fantasy Analysis form letter still works: “But he’s still just _ (fill in age here)!” Having said that, I may as well dust it off one last time: But he’s still just 25! It’s true. Lawrie is younger than George Springer. This guy could have a lot of baseball left in him. He qualifies at both third base and second base, but I’ll consider him mostly at second base because that’s where his value is highest.

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I already took a look at some of the risky upside picks in the outfield. Now I’ll tackle the middle infield.

The Javier Baez story if fairly familiar by now. The 22-year-old brings massive power along with huge strikeout totals. That power comes in the generally-weak middle infield and is coupled with solid speed for a potential smorgasbord of fantasy goodness.

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It’s Mike Trout. The safest first round hitter is Mike Trout, and that’s boring. You already know this. I tried many different ways of looking at it and it all came back to Trout.

Trout isn’t the perfect fantasy baseball player. His strikeout rate took a big jump last season and his stolen base attempts dropped considerably. I’m not worried. He’s been so good that the natural inclination is to try to find problems with his game or reasons why he might become less good. He’s 23! What if he gets better? If you take last season’s 36 home runs, add a dash of 2012’s 49 steals, toss in a career .305 average and his usual awesome run/RBI totals, you have an absolute fantasy monster. Trout isn’t the perfect fantasy baseball player, but he’s the closest thing there is.

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This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, rotation, and bullpen) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.

Between Yasmany Tomas’ attempt at third base and the messy catcher situation, this infield might look quite different once the season starts. Elsewhere, there’s an obvious star at first base and two players in the middle infield who could provide solid value.

Catcher
Tuffy Gosewisch
Oscar Hernandez
Gerald Laird

In the minors
Peter O’Brien

Gosewisch, 31, has 179 career plate appearances with a .213 batting average and one home run. He has three career walks. Hernandez was the first overall pick in the Rule 5 draft last year. He is 21 and hit .249 in Single-A last season.

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