Adam McFadden’s 10 Bold Predictions

Writing on Friday is tough for Bold Predictions as my RotoGraphs colleagues gradually picked off many of my predictions one by one through the week. Don’t feel too bad for me, I still found plenty that will probably come back to haunt me in a few months (or sooner!).

1. Jorge Soler will hit at least 33 home runs

Going with 30 home runs didn’t feel quite bold enough since Steamer pegs Soler for 24 and the Fans call for 26. So… 33 home runs! I think he compares especially well to Justin Upton, whose 70-pick premium over Soler in NFBC ADP feels quite steep. Check out his ISO numbers last season for a hint at his power upside: .446 in Double-A, .336 in Triple-A and .281 in the majors.

2. Tony Cingrani will be a top-three closer for the final two months of the season

Cingrani’s assignment to the bullpen will allow him to throw harder and scrap his non-working changeup. His over-reliance on the fastball also won’t be as much of an issue as a reliever. Cingrani has a fantastic 25.8 K% as a starter and that should only improve. Cincinnati isn’t overflowing with closing candidates, so Cingrani could be an Aroldis Chapman trade or injury away from being an elite closer.

3. Danny Salazar will be a top-35 starting pitcher

With a career 12.1 SwStr%, the strikeouts should come in bunches. He’s not without risk since he was downright terrible for stretches last season, though it looks like a triceps injury and since-fixed mechanical issues may have been responsible. We’ve seen what Salazar can do when he’s right, and he easily has the potential to make this prediction for me.

4. Michael Bourn will steal at least 35 bases

Why bet on an aging speedster with chronic hamstring troubles who has combined for 33 steals the past two seasons? Because these aren’t vegetable lasagna predictions, they’re bold predictions. This is essentially a bet that Bourn hasn’t been fully healthy in either of his two seasons in Cleveland, and that he now is fully healthy. I feel confident a healthy Bourn can run enough to hit the threshold with a repeat of last year’s .314 OBP, which isn’t asking too much.

5. Arismendy Alcantara will be a top-seven second baseman

While putting too much weight in spring storylines is foolish, Joe Maddon appears to be enamored with Alcantara’s versatility and many writers are guessing Maddon will use Alcantara in a Ben Zobrist-esque role. As long as he finds those precious plate appearances, his lack of a set starting position could even turn out to be a benefit for fantasy owners. Already eligible at second base and outfield, it doesn’t take much imagination to see him grabbing third base eligibility before Kris Bryant is called up.

As for the actual performance when playing, his 2014 numbers extrapolated to 20 home runs and 16 steals in 600 plate appearances. ZiPS is feeling the optimism with a projection of 83 runs, 19 home runs, 79 RBI, 25 steals, and a .249 batting average. Anything approaching those numbers will make this prediction come true.

6. Alex Rodriguez will hit at least 20 home runs

Rodriguez was solid in his brief 2013 with a 113 wRC+ and .179 ISO. He’s motivated and healthy enough to be playing fairly well in in the spring. So much can go wrong here and his average may be horrendous, but if Rodriguez can scratch his way to 500 plate appearances, 20 home runs is within reach.

7. George Springer will not be a top-25 outfielder

I’m bummed because I wanted Springer on my teams this season, but a top-40 ADP for a player who last season made less contact on pitches in the zone than Melvin Upton doesn’t make sense. With his average certain to be an anchor, Springer will need to steal bases much more often than he did in 2014 to justify this draft cost. That’s possible, maybe even likely since he stole 45 bases in the minors in 2013, but there are just too many moving pieces for me to be comfortable with him as an early pick.

8. Francisco Liriano will be a top-25 starting pitcher

Liriano’s ability to keep the ball on the ground and pile up strikeouts has always made him an interesting pitcher. His control and injuries have always seemed to hold him back. I’m looking for a third-straight 160-inning season, a walk rate closer to his career 10.1%, and some better luck in the wins department. This prediction is bold because he’s ranked 42nd in the RotoGraphs group rankings.

9. Carlos Gonzalez will easily outperform Michael Brantley

I spent about 400 words explaining my reasoning on this here. To summarize, I’m not a big believer in Brantley’s ability to repeat any single aspect of his 2014 season. Even if he did, Gonzalez could still win this for me by simply being healthy. This will come down to how healthy Gonzalez can stay vs. how well Brantley can repeat his 2014 performance. Gonzalez is currently healthy and on track to start the season on time.

10. Yasiel Puig will not be a top-12 outfielder

The RotoGraphs group ranking has Puig at No. 7 in the outfield. The talent is there. The ability to adjust is there. However, 16 home runs and 11 steals doesn’t cut it. Just like Springer, I’m a fan of Puig, but not his costly ADP (27). If I’m taking a young, talented outfielder who has yet to put together a truly elite fantasy season, I’ll take Bryce Harper over Puig. If I want less risk, I’ll take Jacoby Ellsbury or Starling Marte. Puig is great and it’s fairly easy to see him blowing up and making this prediction look foolish, but I’m not paying the steep cost for that hypothetical jump in drafts.