Reconsidering Brett Lawrie and Justin Smoak, Again

It’s time to talk about Brett Lawrie and Justin Smoak yet again. These two have been through the spin cycle from hyped prospects, to busts, to post-hype sleepers, to post-hype busts. The majority of the fantasy community appears to have moved on from Smoak and is close to doing so on Lawrie. This is exactly the reason they’re interesting again. Rock-bottom prices (Lawrie is ranked at 272 in the RotoGraphs group top 300 and Smoak is unranked) and a change in scenery for both bring the slightest glimmer of hope.

Brett Lawrie

Sadly, this may be the last season the Standard Brett Lawrie Fantasy Analysis form letter still works: “But he’s still just _ (fill in age here)!” Having said that, I may as well dust it off one last time: But he’s still just 25! It’s true. Lawrie is younger than George Springer. This guy could have a lot of baseball left in him. He qualifies at both third base and second base, but I’ll consider him mostly at second base because that’s where his value is highest.

Lawrie’s career 104 wRC+ paints him as a slightly above average hitter regardless of position. At second base, it would have put him in the top 10 each of the past five years, except 2013 when he would have been 13th. I’m tempted to stop there and say Lawrie’s fantasy worth is all about health because it seems clear his level of play belongs among fantasy starters at second base. However, wRC+ doesn’t necessarily determine a player’s fate (for better or for worse), so there’s still work to be done.

Power-wise, Lawrie’s career ISO puts him in the elite at second base. One concern with his power has been a tendency to hit a lot of ground balls. While that means he doesn’t fit in with the typical power-hitter profile, he can still develop into a strong power source. Adam Jones and Robinson Cano both hit more ground balls than Lawrie through age 24 and went on to develop solid power. Even with a downgrade in offensive home ballparks, his power will be a plus at the position when he’s on the field.

Speed is more of a problem as he didn’t attempt a single steal in 2014 and has never been a very effective base stealer. Not surprisingly, injuries may have played a role last season. Lawrie dealt with hamstring tightness in early March, then missed six games in May with the same ailment. He’s definitely athletic and still young enough where physical decline isn’t a concern. The projection systems have Lawrie between six and eight steals, which seems about right.

The production doesn’t carry much weight if Lawrie can’t stay healthy, and he’s barely averaged 100 games each of the past three seasons. There’s reason to hope for better results because Lawrie is leaving the turf of Rogers Centre, which he said was very hard on his body. It’s not a perfect solution because he’s missed games from non-turf injuries like a broken finger and diving into a camera well, but Lawrie also missed plenty of games with tightness in various muscles and strains over the years.

The biggest thing holding Lawrie back from being a star may be that he’s just not a star. Perhaps this current level of production is what he is, and his magical 43-game sample from 2011 set unrealistic expectations. I still see the ingredients for a useful fantasy player, especially while he qualifies at second base. Now that his price is so low, it’s worth taking a shot to see if a move off of the turf helps him finally play a full season.

Justin Smoak

If he’s going to resurrect his career, it seems like Toronto is the perfect place for Smoak to do it. The team has a history of turning busts into stars with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. And Smoak is undoubtedly a bust.

He is 566 mostly-bad games into his career. His career batting average is .224. Going into 2010, Bautista was 575 mostly-bad games into his career with a batting average of .238. The point is not that Smoak will do what Bautista did in 2010. It’s that the book on Smoak isn’t necessarily closed.

Mike Podhorzer points out a couple of interesting tidbits about Smoak’s power. First, his batted ball distance is trending up beautifully the past four seasons. Second, he carried a significantly higher xHR/FB rate than his actual HR/FB rate last season. Power potential is present. The move from Seattle to a friendlier run environment in Toronto can only help. ZiPS calls for 18 home runs and a .240 batting average. I think his upside is around 25 and .260.

Despite the mild optimism for his power, there’s a long track record of being a below-average major league hitter at a position where much more is expected. Smoak shows a good eye in some regards, swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone than average, yet he still swings and misses more than average. His struggles to make contact present an extreme batting average risk to go with his solid power.

Smoak will battle Dioner Navarro for playing time at Toronto’s designated hitter spot. Between Navarro publicly asking for a trade and spending time backing up Russell Martin at catcher, there should be a good deal of at-bats for Smoak. If the situation turns into a straight platoon, Smoak is on the better side, facing righties. ZiPS is most optimistic on his playing time, giving him 525 plate appearances. Steamer projects 440.

I came into this hoping to find some reason to pump up Smoak’s chances to become a useful fantasy player. I don’t see enough power upside to drown out the downside and count on Smoak in any sort of important role on fantasy teams. I do like him as a lottery ticket in the final rounds, because he has a higher chance of being something than similarly-ranked 1B like Mitch Moreland, Yonder Alonso and James Loney.