Author Archive

Bullpen Report: May 13, 2019

Remember when Joe Maddon had said that virtually every reliever in his bullpen could get a crack at some saves, with Pedro Strop (hamstring) on the IL? I’m starting to get a little skeptical.

Steve Cishek pitched a perfect ninth inning to close out the Cubs’ 4-1 win over the Brewers on Sunday night, and he has been Maddon’s choice to pitch in both save opportunities that have arisen since Strop sustained his injury. Maddon did show an openness to use other relievers in a closer-type situation on Saturday, when he summoned Brandon Kintzler and Kyle Ryan to pitch the top of the ninth in a 1-1 tie (with Cishek coming in for the 10th inning). However, it is looking clear that Cishek is Maddon’s preferred choice to close in Strop’s absence. For now, I am still designating the Cubs’ situation as a committee.
Read the rest of this entry »


NL Lineup Analysis (5/10/19)

A path for an Austin Riley promotion, a new role for Jose Peraza and positive developments for Mac Williamson and Ian Kinsler are just some of the lineup developments in the National League in recent days. Here’s the breakdown for each team.

Arizona

Wilmer Flores has been hitting well of late (.410/.452/.641 over his last 12 games), so he has been getting in the lineup more often. He has started six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games and each of the last four, including the last three against right-handed starters. A different player has sat each time to make room for Flores, so as long as he keeps hitting, there is enough flexibility to keep him in the lineup on a close-to-everyday basis.

Torey Lovullo has yet to settle on a spot in the batting order for Ketel Marte against righties. He has been consistently slotted in at the second spot against lefties, but in his last four starts against right-handed pitchers, Marte has hit fifth, leadoff, second and sixth.

Atlanta

As Ender Inciarte has yet to get untracked at the plate, he is starting to lose some playing time. He has gone to the bench for three of the last five games against left-handed starters and for four of the last 12 games overall. For each of those games, Ronald Acuna Jr. has moved to center field with one of Johan Camargo, Matt Joyce or Charlie Culberson taking over in left field. On a related note, Riley started in left field for Triple-A Gwinnett on Wednesday, so with Acuna getting more acclimated in center field, we should wonder if the prospect may eventually supplant Inciarte in the Braves’ lineup.

Chicago

Daniel Descalso has played sparingly over the last six days due to a sore ankle, and Ben Zobrist was placed on the restricted list on Wednesday, so that has meant more playing time for Albert Almora Jr. He has started four of the last six games, including two against right-handed starters. David Bote had already been playing more regularly, but he has now started seven straight games. Addison Russell, who replaced Zobrist on the Cubs’ roster, has now started two of the last three games at second base.

With Descalso and Zobrist out, Jason Heyward led off the last two games against right-handed starters.

Cincinnati

Have we seen the last of Joey Votto, Leadoff Hitter? Nick Senzel has led off for the Reds in the last two games, with Votto batting second against the Athletics on Wednesday and out of the lineup entirely for Thursday’s finale. The outfield situation has stabilized, with Yasiel Puig in right field, Senzel in center field, and an apparent platoon of Jesse Winker and Peraza in left field. The plan at second base is less clear, though a platoon of Derek Dietrich and Kyle Farmer could emerge. Peraza and Josh VanMeter could be in that mix as well.

Colorado

Raimel Tapia has seized something close to an everyday role, starting seven of the Rockies’ last eight games. He has also settled in at the lower part of the batting order, hitting no higher than sixth in 12 of his last 13 starts. Meanwhile, David Dahl and Ian Desmond have had a strict platoon in center field over the last six games, with each player getting three starts on the basis of handedness.

Los Angeles

With A.J. Pollock out, the Dodgers have been going with a platoon of Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez in center field to go along with the Joc Pederson/Chris Taylor platoon in left field. Max Muncy has been playing second base when Hernandez has been in the lineup in center field, which has turned Muncy into an everyday player. In turn, David Freese has been covering first base when Muncy has been playing the keystone.

Miami

Curtis Granderson and Peter O’Brien are sharing time in left field, though handedness does not seem to be a factor in determining which one gets the start. The split between Rosell Herrera and Isaac Galloway in center field looks more like a standard platoon, with Herrera getting the last two starts against righties and Galloway getting the last two starts versus lefties.

Jon Berti is now the regular third baseman, as he has started six of the last eight games and 11 of the last 15. Neil Walker and Martin Prado are now ensconced in a first base platoon, with Walker starting the last four games with an opposing right-handed starter and Prado getting the nod against the last two lefties.

Milwaukee

As expected, the return of Christian Yelich has meant less playing time for both Eric Thames and Ben Gamel. Both players have started in only two of the five games since Yelich missed time with back problems. Craig Counsell has taken advantage of Mike Moustakas‘ surging production, batting him either third or fourth in his last 13 starts against right-handed starters.

New York

Brandon Nimmo may be losing his grip on an everyday role, as he has been left out of the Mets’ starting lineup in two of the last five games. Once was against a lefty starter (Gio Gonzalez), but the other time was against righty Chris Paddack. Todd Frazier and J.D. Davis have been platooning at third base, and with Jed Lowrie (knee) possibly returning next week, Frazier could see a reduction in his playing time. Mickey Callaway did not specify a plan for getting Lowrie into the lineup, only saying that some regulars may not play as much. With Frazier batting .143, he would seem to be the most likely player to be impacted.

The suddenly-hot Amed Rosario (15 for his last 45 with five extra-base hits) has batted second in three of the last four games. Peter Alonso has hit in the cleanup spot in each of those three games.

Philadelphia

All of the regulars are back, so we are back to seeing the same Phillies lineup, day in and day out.

Pittsburgh

The easing-in process for Gregory Polanco appears to be over, as he has now started five games in a row. Also, Bryan Reynolds‘ run of semi-regular playing time looks like it’s over, as Melky Cabrera has three of the last four starts in left field.

San Diego

For the Padres’ eight games played in May, Kinsler has hit leadoff for six of them. He has rewarded Andy Green for the decision by going 9 for 30 with two home runs and two doubles this month. Now Manuel Margot looks like the odd man out of the Padres’ outfield, having started only two of the last six games.

San Francisco

After getting four straight starts in left field, Mike Gerber was abruptly pushed aside with Williamson’s promotion from Triple-A Sacramento on Tuesday. Williamson started on both Tuesday and Thursday at Colorado, and the team will be looking to him to play left field on a regular basis. The Giants also placed Buster Posey on the 7-day concussion IL on Thursday, so Aramis Garcia and Stephen Vogt will split the catching duties in his absence. It may be worth noting that when Vogt started on Monday against the Reds, he batted third.

The rest of the lineup is stable, though with Yangervis Solarte designated for assignment on Tuesday, Donovan Solano has likely inherited his portion of the second base platoon with Joe Panik.

St. Louis

Harrison Bader has been relegated to a bench role once again. Dexter Fowler has now made five of the last six starts in center field.

Washington

Juan Soto (back) is expected to return on Saturday, so the recent run of starts by Michael A. Taylor is about to end. With the demotion of Carter Kieboom, Wilmer Difo is back to getting regular play at shortstop, though Trea Turner (finger) could be back as soon as two weeks from now.

With both Matt Adams (shoulder) and Ryan Zimmerman (plantar fasciitis) out, Howie Kendrick figures to play close to regularly at first base. He has started three of the last five games there. Kendrick has also been hitting regularly in the heart of the order, batting third or fourth in each of his last 13 starts.


Bullpen Report: May 9, 2019

The mystery of the Cubs’ bullpen usage from Tuesday night was solved on Wednesday. The team placed closer Pedro Strop on the IL with a strained left hamstring, which helps to explain why Joe Maddon went with Steve Cishek in the top of the ninth inning in a 2-2 game with the Marlins.

Maddon turned to Cishek for an actual save situation on Wednesday, but only after Kyle Ryan started off the top of the ninth to face switch-hitter Neil Walker, whose 14 plate appearances against lefties had produced one single this season. Ryan departed after allowing Walker’s second single against southpaws this season, so Cishek came in and still needed three outs to preserve a 2-1 lead. A Starlin Castro single, a wild pitch and a Miguel Rojas RBI groundout later, Cishek was tagged with his first blown save of 2019. The Cubs ultimately prevailed in 11 innings with Carl Edwards Jr. getting the win.
Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: May 8, 2019

Apparently if you get the save against the Blue Jays, they name the building after you. So probably because the portion of the Jays’ lineup that was due up against the Twins called for a lefty reliever, rather than a righty, their home park is not called Parker Centre.

With the Twins up 3-0 heading into the bottom of the ninth inning, Rocco Baldelli summoned Taylor Rogers to handle Justin Smoak (.216 Avg, .135 ISO versus lefties), the right-handed Randal Grichuk (.317 Avg, but a .122 ISO vs. LHP) and Rowdy Tellez. The choice nearly backfired, as Grichuk singled and then Rogers stayed in to face Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after retiring Tellez. Guerrero singled, putting runners on the corners, but Rogers induced a Billy McKinney grounder to end the game.
Read the rest of this entry »


What’s Different About Kyle Freeland This Season?

After a 2018 breakout season, Kyle Freeland gave us a lot to be confused about on draft day. As a rookie in 2017, Freeland defied conventional wisdom about Rockies pitchers, posting a lower-than-average HR/FB ratio at Coors Field (10.3 percent), and then he did it again last season (12.6 percent). He even took a relatively modest 92.0 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV FB/LD) at home and lowered it to 91.2 mph. While Freeland had been especially effective at limiting homers with his four-seam fastball, last season, he was able to hit another level by getting more whiffs on his cutter.

We owners didn’t know exactly what to do with a pitcher who had consistent success at Coors Field. We didn’t treat him like the top 25 starter that he was in 2018, and for good reason. Skepticism about his home splits aside, Freeland benefited from an 82.8 percent strand rate that he was almost sure to regress from significantly. He had earned enough trust to be among the top 175 players taken overall on average, according to both FantasyPros and NFBC ADP. Even with a lower strand rate on the horizon, Freeland’s 3.67 FIP and 200-plus innings showed the potential value he could have for owners this year. To buy into the FIP and the innings, though, you had to buy into his homer-thwarting abilities.
Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: May 6, 2019

I’m sorry, Luke Jackson, wasn’t sure you were for real.

But you sealed the Braves’ Sunday win.

Now you’re at the head of the closer grid.

This is why I write fantasy columns and not parody songs.
Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: May 3, 2019

The stakes were high for Nicky Delmonico when he came up in the bottom of the ninth with runners on the corners and one out on Thursday night. The Red Sox were clinging to a 4-3 lead, but the normally-reliable Ryan Brasier was on the mound. Delmonico got the better of Brasier, lofting a slider on the outer third of the plate just beyond the outstretched glove of Jackie Bradley Jr. and into the seats.

While Brasier had entered the game against the White Sox having allowed only two runs over 13.2 innings (to go along with six saves), both runs had come on solo homers. Delmonico’s shot left Brasier with his first loss and second blown save, and his profile may suggest that homer-proneness could be a chronic issue. He has a career 36.9 percent ground ball rate, and he also draws a lot of swings in the strike zone with a career 75.2 percent Z-Swing%.
Read the rest of this entry »


NL Lineup Analysis (5/2/19)

Max Muncy mashing lefties? Alex Verdugo, David Bote, Wilmer Flores and Yangervis Solarte picking up some extra playing time? It’s just part of what’s been going on in National League lineups lately. Here is this week’s rundown.

Arizona

The only change of note for the Diamondbacks in recent days is that Jarrod Dyson may be falling out of favor against righties. In two of the team’s last five games against right-handed starters, Ketel Marte has gotten the nod in center field, with Flores taking over at second base. Flores is starting to heat up, going 5 or his last 12, so maybe this trend has some lasting power.
Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: May 1, 2019

Heading into Tuesday night’s game with the Pirates, Jose Leclerc had not pitched in a high-leverage situation in nine days. His two most recent appearances occurred in blowouts, as he tried to work out the command issues that had plagued him for much of the season. Chris Woodward ended Leclerc’s sabbatical from closing on Tuesday night, deploying him in a save situation, as the Rangers held a 3-0 lead going into the top of the ninth.

Leclerc had actually been highly effective against righties this season, holding them to a .130 Avg prior to Tuesday, but to shut down the Pirates, he had to run the gauntlet of switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds and Cole Tucker and left-handed Adam Frazier. He did not retire any of them, and Frazier’s single scored Reynolds, cutting the Rangers’ lead to two runs. Leclerc was on the verge of getting out of the jam, striking out Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco in succession, but Josh Bell (another switch-hitter) laced a game-tying double into left center. Fortunately for Leclerc, Bell unsuccessfully tried to extend the double into a triple, so he avoided further damage.
Read the rest of this entry »


Can Hunter Dozier, Niko Goodrum and Yasiel Puig Maintain Their New Profiles?

Last week, Paul Sporer had some highly encouraging things to say about Hunter Dozier in his piece on early batter breakouts. Paul noted that Dozier has radically changed his approach in the early going, and with another week’s worth of data to consider, at least one of his changes remains staggering to ponder. Last season, Dozier was more aggressive than the typical major league hitter, swinging at 50.1 percent of the pitches he saw. Just over a month into this season, he has become extremely selective, lowering his Swing% to less than three-fourths (37.0 percent) of what it was in 2018.

The improved production that we have seen from Dozier — the higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate, higher Avg and OBP and possibly also the increased power as well — can all be traced back in part to this one change in approach. It’s still early enough in the season that it is more than reasonable to ask if his improvement is for real. If we answer that question by looking at the peripherals that underlie Dozier’s improved fantasy stats, we’d have to say it does look real.
Read the rest of this entry »