August Starting Pitcher Rankings
I’ll have much more on these rankings next week. The pitching landscape is in a rough spot right now and the talent globs are more indistinguishable than ever. The second you start to feel comfortable with someone, they trash your line with a dud or three. Stay tuned for more info to help separate these globs in our final two months of the season.
The tiers are as follows:
#1s (12 SPs) – The true aces of fantasy baseball.
Must Start (9 SPs) – Should be pretty obvious, but these are the guys who always start. Again, it isn’t just the very best guys. There are second and third tier arms in terms of market value that I’d start every time out. They don’t have an obvious split or weakness that would give you a better chance at picking off their poor starts. Some of them are “No Coors Field”-types, but it’s predominantly set it and forget it.
Usually Start (31 SPs) – If “No Coors Field” is 30% with the MS group, it’s more like 60-70% with this group. You need to find a reason to sit them right now in most formats. You might feel like you can spot them properly, but we’re just not that precise in identifying when a solid arm will falter. These guys are good enough to thwart any opponent even on something less than their best day or they could get smacked by a weaker opponent. If you’re rostering them, you should probably be starting them.
Spot Start (S-Shallow, D-Deep) (39 Shallow, 20 Deep SPs) – Flawed talents. A lot of these guys are on the cusp of or have been in the Usually Start tier, but currently you’re looking to curate their starts a bit where you can. These guys might also be US tier arms here temporarily. Pay very close attention to gamelogs of pitchers, get a feel for how they arrived at their bottom line numbers. Not all ERAs are created equally and that’s why it’s not a gauge for future production, especially in small samples. I decided to split the group a bit as sort of a way to identify upward or downward mobility for these guys. The shallow ones are a bit more talented and/or running hot so we’re maybe keeping a closer eye on them.
Could Start (20 SPs) – I know many of you are dealing with some brutal pitching staff conditions right now after drafting a rotation you thought would be a strength, so you might find yourself in this tier a little more than you’d like. There is some talent to be plucked and the right two-start week could really set you up. This is essentially the Spot Star tier for single leagues or super-deep mixers (16+ teams).
NO (16 SPs) – No, just don’t use these guys.
Please leave your questions and comments below!
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Kenta Maeda was missed. He’s been a Must-Start for me. I’ll add him and any others I miss over the weekend so if you think of someone I should’ve included, please comment below. I used a probable start sheet for next week to gather names so Maeda’s absence was particularly weird.
| NAME | Tier | LG | TM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Scherzer | #1 | NL | WAS |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | #1 | AL | HOU |
| 3 | Chris Sale | #1 | AL | BOS |
| 4 | Gerrit Cole | #1 | AL | HOU |
| 5 | Jacob deGrom | #1 | NL | NYM |
| 6 | Aaron Nola | #1 | NL | PHI |
| 7 | Noah Syndergaard | #1 | NL | NYM |
| 8 | Clayton Kershaw | #1 | NL | LAD |
| 9 | Corey Kluber | #1 | AL | CLE |
| 10 | Zack Greinke | #1 | NL | ARI |
| 11 | James Paxton | #1 | AL | SEA |
| 12 | Trevor Bauer | #1 | AL | CLE |
| 13 | Luis Severino | MS | AL | NYY |
| 14 | Charlie Morton | MS | AL | HOU |
| 15 | Patrick Corbin | MS | NL | ARI |
| 16 | Carlos Carrasco | MS | AL | CLE |
| 17 | Blake Snell | MS | AL | TB |
| 18 | Mike Clevinger | MS | AL | CLE |
| 19 | Jose Berrios | MS | AL | MIN |
| 20 | Madison Bumgarner | MS | NL | SF |
| 21 | Rich Hill | MS | NL | LAD |
| 22 | David Price | US | AL | BOS |
| 23 | Ross Stripling | US | NL | LAD |
| 24 | Mike Foltynewicz | US | NL | ATL |
| 25 | Lance McCullers Jr. | US | AL | HOU |
| 26 | Masahiro Tanaka | US | AL | NYY |
| 27 | Jon Gray | US | NL | COL |
| 28 | Jameson Taillon | US | NL | PIT |
| 29 | Alex Wood | US | NL | LAD |
| 30 | Walker Buehler | US | NL | LAD |
| 31 | Kyle Gibson | US | AL | MIN |
| 32 | Zack Godley | US | NL | ARI |
| 33 | Andrew Heaney | US | AL | LAA |
| 34 | Tyler Skaggs | US | AL | LAA |
| 35 | J.A. Happ | US | AL | NYY |
| 36 | Nathan Eovaldi | US | AL | BOS |
| 37 | Zack Wheeler | US | NL | NYM |
| 38 | Sean Newcomb | US | NL | ATL |
| 39 | Joe Musgrove | US | NL | PIT |
| 40 | Marco Gonzales | US | AL | SEA |
| 41 | Trevor Cahill | US | AL | OAK |
| 42 | Miles Mikolas | US | NL | STL |
| 43 | Carlos Rodon | US | AL | CWS |
| 44 | Jack Flaherty | US | NL | STL |
| 45 | Anibal Sanchez | US | NL | ATL |
| 46 | Chris Archer | US | NL | PIT |
| 47 | Tyler Anderson | US | NL | COL |
| 48 | Jon Lester | US | NL | CHC |
| 49 | Rick Porcello | US | AL | BOS |
| 50 | Sean Manaea | US | AL | OAK |
| 51 | Kyle Freeland | US | NL | COL |
| 52 | Dylan Bundy | US | AL | BAL |
| 53 | Robbie Ray | SSS | NL | ARI |
| 54 | Luis Castillo | SSS | NL | CIN |
| 55 | Kyle Hendricks | SSS | NL | CHC |
| 56 | Jose Quintana | SSS | NL | CHC |
| 57 | Dallas Keuchel | SSS | AL | HOU |
| 58 | Jake Arrieta | SSS | NL | PHI |
| 59 | Vince Velasquez | SSS | NL | PHI |
| 60 | Nick Pivetta | SSS | NL | PHI |
| 61 | Tanner Roark | SSS | NL | WAS |
| 62 | Gio Gonzalez | SSS | NL | WAS |
| 63 | Marcus Stroman | SSS | AL | TOR |
| 64 | Luke Weaver | SSS | NL | STL |
| 65 | Derek Holland | SSS | NL | SF |
| 66 | Dereck Rodriguez | SSS | NL | SF |
| 67 | Kevin Gausman | SSS | NL | ATL |
| 68 | Clay Buchholz | SSS | NL | ARI |
| 69 | Chase Anderson | SSS | NL | MIL |
| 70 | Shane Bieber | SSS | AL | CLE |
| 71 | CC Sabathia | SSS | AL | NYY |
| 72 | Cole Hamels | SSS | NL | CHC |
| 73 | Jeremy Hellickson | SSS | NL | WAS |
| 74 | Marco Estrada | SSS | AL | TOR |
| 75 | Andrew Suarez | SSS | NL | SF |
| 76 | Freddy Peralta | SSS | NL | MIL |
| 77 | Ervin Santana | SSS | AL | MIN |
| 78 | Dan Straily | SSS | NL | MIA |
| 79 | Nick Tropeano | SSS | AL | LAA |
| 80 | Danny Duffy | SSS | AL | KC |
| 81 | German Marquez | SSS | NL | COL |
| 82 | Antonio Senzatela | SSS | NL | COL |
| 83 | Matt Harvey | SSS | NL | CIN |
| 84 | Jaime Barria | SSS | AL | LAA |
| 85 | Jose Urena | SSS | NL | MIA |
| 86 | Jhoulys Chacin | SSS | NL | MIL |
| 87 | Edwin Jackson | SSS | AL | OAK |
| 88 | Wade LeBlanc | SSS | AL | SEA |
| 89 | Zach Eflin | SSS | NL | PHI |
| 90 | Ryan Borucki | SSS | AL | TOR |
| 91 | Mike Minor | SSS | AL | TEX |
| 92 | Julio Teheran | DSS | NL | ATL |
| 93 | Reynaldo Lopez | DSS | AL | CWS |
| 94 | Jordan Zimmermann | DSS | AL | DET |
| 95 | Tyson Ross | DSS | NL | SD |
| 96 | Mike Fiers | DSS | AL | DET |
| 97 | Matt Boyd | DSS | AL | DET |
| 98 | Drew Pomeranz | DSS | AL | BOS |
| 99 | Jake Odorizzi | DSS | AL | MIN |
| 100 | Felix Pena | DSS | AL | LAA |
| 101 | Yonny Chirinos | DSS | AL | TB |
| 102 | Ryan Yarbrough | DSS | AL | TB |
| 103 | Jake Faria | DSS | AL | TB |
| 104 | Junior Guerra | DSS | NL | MIL |
| 105 | Mike Leake | DSS | AL | SEA |
| 106 | Lance Lynn | DSS | AL | NYY |
| 107 | Felix Hernandez | DSS | AL | SEA |
| 108 | James Shields | DSS | AL | CWS |
| 109 | Ivan Nova | DSS | NL | PIT |
| 110 | Yefry Ramirez | DSS | AL | BAL |
| 111 | Blaine Hardy | DSS | AL | DET |
| 112 | Tyler Mahle | CS | NL | CIN |
| 113 | Tommy Milone | CS | NL | WAS |
| 114 | Joey Lucchesi | CS | NL | SD |
| 115 | Mike Montgomery | CS | NL | CHC |
| 116 | Francisco Liriano | CS | AL | DET |
| 117 | Jake Junis | CS | AL | KC |
| 118 | Trevor Richards | CS | NL | MIA |
| 119 | Wei-Yin Chen | CS | NL | MIA |
| 120 | Brad Keller | CS | AL | KC |
| 121 | Anthony DeSclafani | CS | NL | CIN |
| 122 | Robbie Erlin | CS | NL | SD |
| 123 | John Gant | CS | NL | STL |
| 124 | Austin Gomber | CS | NL | STL |
| 125 | Sam Gaviglio | CS | AL | TOR |
| 126 | Eric Lauer | CS | NL | SD |
| 127 | Clayton Richard | CS | NL | SD |
| 128 | Pablo Lopez | CS | NL | MIA |
| 129 | Heath Fillmyer | CS | AL | KC |
| 130 | Adalberto Mejia | CS | AL | MIN |
| 131 | Sal Romano | CS | NL | CIN |
| Andrew Cashner | NO | AL | BAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | NO | AL | BAL |
| David Hess | NO | AL | BAL |
| Lucas Giolito | NO | AL | CWS |
| Dylan Covey | NO | AL | CWS |
| Wade Miley | NO | NL | MIL |
| Jason Vargas | NO | NL | NYM |
| Corey Oswalt | NO | NL | NYM |
| Brett Anderson | NO | AL | OAK |
| Trevor Williams | NO | NL | PIT |
| Chris Stratton | NO | NL | SF |
| Tyler Glasnow | NO | AL | TB |
| Ariel Jurado | NO | AL | TEX |
| Bartolo Colon | NO | AL | TEX |
| Yovani Gallardo | NO | AL | TEX |
| Martin Perez | NO | AL | TEX |
No Kenta?
Kenta Maeda?
Man, I dunno why he wasn’t on the probable starter list I used and then I just didn’t remember. My bad.
Strasburg and/or any other injured SPs?
why would I get a down vote for this, what am I missing?
Well, you’re missing an actual sentence for one thing…. Why do you actually worry about downvotes lolol???
How about Nick Kingham?
Never mind, I see he got optioned…
Why is Dereck Rodriguez so low?
Not a ton of separation in the SSS tier, so I can see him as high as 53. Going to focus on the tier with an article soon
stras?
I know that these lists must be incredibly tedious to put together so I really try not to nitpick. That being said, I have a hard time seeing Godley 10 spots ahead of Mikolas.
Agreed – Godley is too high. A 4.50 ERA is playable but a 1.50 WHIP (based on a terrible BB/9) is not. I wouldn’t use him if he were available in free agency
Those are his full season numbers, but he’s been much better of late. And I’m not sure you’re going to pick up anyone off the wire if you wouldn’t scoop Godley because you’re unlikely to find anything better, espec. the way he’s been pitching the last month or so.
10 spots isn’t really anything, especially since they are both in the same tier. I don’t get hung up on the actual number, tbh.
You seem to have left Eduardo Rodriguez off the list, too.
There’s no guarantee that he’ll be back in August or that he’ll be in the rotation when he returns. I have to assume that’s why…
Mahle was optioned the other day FWIW.
Anibal Sanchez is ahead of a LOT of guys.
idk… i guess i just don’t really see how there are 20 guys between joe musgrove and vince velasquez…
Because they are ranked by tiers, this is not a ranked list. Velasquez is in the next tier, not necessarily 20 spots behind.
Ya the numbers aren’t really worth getting hung up. There’s so much similar talent in the pitching rankings that acting like we can confidently put someone 30th v. another guy 50th is insane. The top of the class sets itself apart, but then The Glob (TM) hits.
I also can’t deep-dive everyone ranked so maybe I’ve have them both move closer together right at the backend of US/start of SSS, but the bottom line is that I don’t see 20 spots as a major gap in today’s SP market.
How about forgetting the number rank and putting them in tiers then.
I hear ya, but I mean, I’ve explained that the numbers aren’t the most important aspect of these all year long. If I took them away, I’d just get a ton of comments asking why there are no numbers which would distract from the pitchers themselves.
I feel like I should be able to leave them in while also having people understand that 10, even 20 spots, isn’t a *massive* jump in talent. Heck, once we get into the middle, there are 30-40 spot gaps where the top and bottom guys aren’t all that dissimilar.
I obviously slot them by my personal preference, but the idea that there is a great split from pitcher to pitcher isn’t accurate to me as it’s a very clustered landscape in the SP market right now.
I appreciate that you include the numbers. It’s not my primary focus when looking at your rankings, but it’s a good way to clarify what order you prefer the pitchers in, and it’s nice being able to immediately identify how many pitchers there are within a specific tier.
With how he’s gone recently, really tough to put Stripling in the 3rd class right now. He would be an extremely risky play.
You’re basing that on 2 starts, in which he has a 24.4% K-BB%. All his season-long numbers are elite. Clearly an overreaction.
I’m basing it on way more than 2 starts. His last 7 starts he has a 4.30 ERA, and 42 k’s(so 6 per start). Only 2 wins. a 1.35 WHIP. That ERA/WHIP combo just isn’t that good.
Also basing it on the fact that he’s at a career high in innings. He would be a sell high type of guy for me right now easily.
ERA and wins… in fantasy they matter, but when evaluating talent, they’re useless.
Stripling moving forward is a solid play because he’s much better than his useless stats suggest.
His FIP in that same period is 4.14, so it’s hardly like he’s been great there either. So not sure exactly how much better he’s been. And wins are a function somewhat of how you are managed. There’s a reason why no Dodgers starter has more than 8 wins. In fantasy you have got to take that into account.
And the thing moreso is there’s an underlying reason for the struggles. He’s at a career high in innings. Dodgers were so worried they made up an injury for him to get him some rest. A lot of times guys like that don’t recover. To act like we’re going to see May/June Stripling is a real reach right now.
Even over his last 7 starts he has a SIERA (much better stat than FIP, as we should all be aware of here on FanGraphs) of 3.19. And a K-BB% of 22.7%.
His potential fatigue and place in a crowded Dodgers rotation are legitimate concerns, but the fact of the matter is that he is still pitching extremely well (once you look past ERA/WHIP, which are practically useless given the sample sizes we are dealing with). I’d be worried about the number of innings he’ll give you going forward, but not about the quality of those innings. Also I think it’s ironic that you called him a sell-high candidate, because I would consider him a good buy-low.
For the season in starting stats(can’t really count the relief appearances)- he’s #63 in strikeouts, and tied for #35 in wins(partially due to how he’s used- only getting more than 5 innings 9 of 16 starts.). His WHIP for the season as a starter is #22.
The fatigue probably has caused a lot of the homers- part of the problems is that his ground ball percentage has gone from 56% in May and 49% in June down to only 42.5% in July(last 2 starts 25%). That’s not being able to get the ball down. Obviously the fatigue was a concern given the DL stint. He’s one that I’d be real careful with right now- in particular his next start which is at Colorado.
Surprised at MadBum and Berrios are Must Start. Berrios doesn’t really step up against the good teams and usually is hammered against them. MadBum isn’t fully back.
Strasburg is not ranked? I know that he is injured, but Sale is injured and he is ranked. Thank you…
Velasquez at 59 after this incredible run. HAHAAHAHAHAHAHAA
I think most would agree that Velasquez has a lot of upside, but he ranks just outside the top 60 in SIERA and K-BB% (min 2 starts) over the last 30 days. He’s shown flashes of brilliance, but the consistency has not been there.
Yes, because VV has *never* had a strong run only to ruin all of it with a terrible start or two so I’m sure this is just who he is now… an unmitigated ace.
Feels a little bullish on Eovaldi, though I certainly hope he keeps it up.
Sucks Tyler Skaggs had that bad start or he would be higher
Something is up with Gio. Has not looked the same since the all-star break, which has killed his RISP karma. He’s always hot/cold, but this could be polar vortex if he is compensating for something.
Just feel when thwre’s a team on a 33-10 run with a strong defense playing in a pitcher’s park that at least one or two of their starters should rank higher than 40th. Cahill and Manaea are simply better bets given oakland’s History under Beane if sustained second half runs than at least a dozen or
More of the pitchers ranked ahead of them. They’re not aces. But they’re gonna win games and in cahill’s case Will pick up a bunch of strikeouts
They’re in the Usually Start tier, I’m rarely sitting them (if ever on most teams bc of injuries and under performance), so what’s the gripe?
Not a major gripe. But in reality I think at least one of them will be top 20.
And actually the “gripe”, and it comes with a smile since even we A’s fans didn’t see this coming, is with the site that has been saying for two months now that the A’s will play .500 ball— or slightly worse— the rest of the season. And is still saying it. While the real team on the real field wins 3 of 4 games like clockwork— 33-10 run, better sustained play than anyone not named the Boston Red Sox. At some point the metrics have to adjust better than they seem capable of doing. This is no ocean liner beane has constructed. And now with fiers and Kelley it just got even better. And perhaps Laureano too.
Maybe one of them will finish there and they can be top 20 on your list. I like the A’s and even picked ’em for the playoffs, but their strength isn’t starting pitching and I just don’t any of their guys as top 20 arms.
We’ll see, I agree that Manaea’s elements don’t get him there– I admit to projecting a stronger finish for him. Cahill, OTOH, and I recognize the dangers of extrapolating smaller sample sizes (13 starts/75 IP) but if you do, he would rank somewhere between 17-21. And yes starting pitching is not their strength.