Are They Good: Best ERAs Since the Break?

It’s been about a month since the All-Star break and we’ve seen a host of interesting arms put up excellent ERAs. Some of them are just studs being studs (Max Scherzer 1.32, Carlos Carrasco 1.56, Rich Hill 1.78, Aaron Nola 2.16, Trevor Bauer 2.21, and Clayton Kershaw 2.23), but others have come from unexpected sources so let’s look under the hood of those guys to see what’s up.

(listed in ascending order of ERA)

Trevor Williams, PIT | 0.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in 24 IP

Williams has the best qualified ERA over the last 30 days (Chris Sale has a 0.00 ERA in that time, but only 17 IP), but there’s nothing supporting it. His insane 98% LOB rate is doing virtually all of the heavy lifting. Obviously, any sustained period of sub-1.00 ERA performance is going to have some outlier metrics involved and it’s usually going to involve a mix of peak skills and good luck, but it ranges from average to truly bleak outside of the LOB rate.

Let’s start with the good. He has a 6% BB rate, which is actually good and runs better than the 8% league average. That’s about it on the good. Williams has an 11% K rate! Eleven. Percent. His 5% swinging strike rate doesn’t suggest any improvement on the way, either. League average is 19% and 9%, respectively, on those two metrics. Nobody would expect such a gaudy ERA to continue for even the best starters, but this is just wild and I’m worried the bottom could fall out in spectacular fashion. His upcoming schedule is v. CHC, v. ATL, and at STL. I’m not sure I’d start him in any of those.

Zack Wheeler, NYM | 1.33 ERA, 0.74 WHIP in 27 IP

Wheeler actually had a 5.14 ERA through his first 10 starts of the year. He has a 2.87 mark in 12 starts since then including his big run over the last month. His skills are very much supporting a surge with a 27% K, 23% K-BB, 13% SwStr rates. He has a career 10% BB rate, but he’s down to 4% during this run with just a single walk in each of the last four starts. The 28-year old righty is rocking five positive offerings by Pitch Values, headlined by his fastball (7.2) and supported by his slider (1.1) and splitter (1.3). His upcoming schedule is at BAL (tomorrow), followed by home starts against SF and WAS.

For more on Wheeler, check out the Fireside episode where we discussed him as a possible second half gem.

Dereck Rodriguez, SF | 1.35 ERA, 0.66 WHIP in 33 IP

Rodriguez has a healthy 18% K-BB (23% K, 5% BB) during this run, but there’s some sketchiness below the surface that puts both the strikeout and walk rates in peril going forward. He has just a 7% swinging strike rate, 30% chase rate, and 57% first-pitch strike rate, all of which are below average for starters. He’s been tough to hit, though, with a .140 AVG/.176 BABIP combo. That won’t hold (obviously), but watching Rodriguez, it’s clear that he’s difficult to square up and so I’m sticking with him down the stretch.

A start at CIN on Friday will represent a nice challenge for Rodriguez and then he goes to NYM before returning home to face TEX and NYM. He also dodges the three game set in Coors and gets a home-and-home against SD if the schedule holds so even as more hits fall and/or the strikeouts push back toward something commensurate with his swing-and-miss rates, he should remain a useful arm.

Lance Lynn, NYY | 1.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 28 IP

He’d actually been getting on track a bit before the trade (3.68 ERA in 22 IP) and after a strong outing in relief of Sonny Gray, he’s flat out taken his job in the rotation. He’s allowed a single run in 12 innings with 17 strikeouts in two starts. He’s got TOR, at BAL, CWS, and DET in his next four, too. If he’s still on your wire, scoop him up.

Alex Cobb, BAL | 2.03 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 31 IP

Cobb has a rough skillset behind his great ERA and yet it’s still remarkably better than what Williams is doing. He’s got a 17% K rate, 11% K-BB rate, and 9% SwStr rate, but honestly we didn’t even need to see the base skills to be extremely leery of the ERA. A 1.23 WHIP just doesn’t match up with a low-2.00s ERA and I think a high-3.00s is the best we can expect from the one-time stud, but that’s only if he maintains the .248 AVG he’s had over the last month (he won’t). He’s at CLE his next time and then home against NYY and TOR after that. Hard pass.