AL Starting Pitchers Just Missing the Cut

Last week, I posted the first iteration of the American League starting pitcher tiers. Naturally, I couldn’t possibly include every starting pitcher, even if they conceivably have the upside to push their way into the rankings at some point. So let’s discuss a couple of names that could quickly make a debut appearance.

Kyle Gibson

Early in spring training, the velocity on Gibson’s trademark sinker was up. The pitch averaged 91.2 mph last year, peaking at a respectable 94.9 mph. But he was throwing 94 mph sinkers several times and hit 95 “at least once”. Gibson induces lots of grounders thanks to that sinker, but holding him back from true fantasy relevance is a poor strikeout rate. His issue isn’t even an inability to make batters swing and miss. Both his slider and changeup have been pretty good in that regard and even that sinker has been a notch above average. Instead, he’s failed to record league average marks of both called and foul strikes. For whatever reason, perhaps his repertoire just doesn’t lend itself to those types of strikes.

But if his velocity is indeed in for a jump, that could lead to better results and a spike in strikeout rate. Since he is already elite at one of the three primary skills and has managed acceptable walk rates despite below average strike percentages, an increase in strikeouts could get his ERA below 4.00.

Zach McAllister

There has been a lot of buzz about McAllister amid his spring training velocity surge, which has carried over from his work in relief last year. And his spring performance only added to the hype, as he struck out more than a quarter of the batters he faced. He has been picked up or drafted in all three of my leagues, something that wouldn’t typically happen for a pitcher coming off a 5.23 ERA and sporting a 4.38 career mark. I am now a proud owner in one of those leagues and I’m eager to see what happens.

But, let’s not get out of control here. McAllister’s secondary pitches have been pretty bad throughout his career. Only the curve ball has generated a SwStk% over 10%, and at just 11%, it still remains below average. Both his changeup and slider have induced whiffs at measly rates, well below 10%. They were above 10% last year, but the sample size was smaller and he made seven relief appearances which likely boosted his numbers. A fastball velocity surge should improve his secondary offerings, but they have a pretty long way to go just to get to average. He’s certainly one to watch, but even with a velocity spike, he’s not an automatic add in shallower mixed leagues just yet.

Daniel Norris

Norris had elbow surgery last October and figured to open the year in the minors. But Marcus Stroman’s injury opened up a spot and his strong spring (27% K rate) sealed the deal. Strikeouts have never been a problem for the young southpaw as Kiley McDaniel’s scouting grades suggest a quality fastball and curve ball and solid slider.

Norris’ bugaboo, like a lot of young hurlers, is throwing strikes. His walk rates sat above 11% at several different minor league stops, while at times were better than that. But at Triple-A last year over a small sample, he threw strikes just 59.7% of the time, versus a 62.7% league average mark. Since strike percentage is a per pitch metric, it stabilizes rather quickly and therefore validates they his control needs improvement. But that improvement could come at any time, and sometimes seemingly overnight. Since he already possesses serious strikeout ability, all that’s possibly holding him back from a big year is that control.